Not the way I wanted to have these posted plays started. This system has done well for me for awhile, I was hoping the 1st day wasn't going to be 1 and 3. Is what it is though. Here's what I have today.
Plays for 2/22/2011
Lasalle vs Xavier -14
KP: Xavier -18
Play: Lasalle +14
Lasalle vs Xavier over/under 154.5
KP: 158
Play: Under 154.5
Indiana St vs Northern Iowa over/under 126
KP: 123
Play: Over 126
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt -6
KP: Vandy -9
Play: Tennessee +6
Michigan St vs Minnesota over/under 132
KP: 136
Play: Under 132
Weber vs Idaho St over/under 139
KP: 135
Play: Over 139
TCU vs Utah over/under 138
KP: 143
Play: Under 138
That's all I have so far. There are a few plays that are 1 point to 1/2 point away from fitting into the system. Use what you want from this information. Best of Luck to all.
Not the way I wanted to have these posted plays started. This system has done well for me for awhile, I was hoping the 1st day wasn't going to be 1 and 3. Is what it is though. Here's what I have today.
Plays for 2/22/2011
Lasalle vs Xavier -14
KP: Xavier -18
Play: Lasalle +14
Lasalle vs Xavier over/under 154.5
KP: 158
Play: Under 154.5
Indiana St vs Northern Iowa over/under 126
KP: 123
Play: Over 126
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt -6
KP: Vandy -9
Play: Tennessee +6
Michigan St vs Minnesota over/under 132
KP: 136
Play: Under 132
Weber vs Idaho St over/under 139
KP: 135
Play: Over 139
TCU vs Utah over/under 138
KP: 143
Play: Under 138
That's all I have so far. There are a few plays that are 1 point to 1/2 point away from fitting into the system. Use what you want from this information. Best of Luck to all.
They have been doing well. I get more totals than side plays typically. Usually 80/20 totals to sides. On the whole this system has been hitting at 62% of the time for about 3 weeks now.
They have been doing well. I get more totals than side plays typically. Usually 80/20 totals to sides. On the whole this system has been hitting at 62% of the time for about 3 weeks now.
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
Actually it looks to be the opposite. Based on the plays he has in post no. 1, it would appear that he's putting more credence in the "Vegas" line.
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
Actually it looks to be the opposite. Based on the plays he has in post no. 1, it would appear that he's putting more credence in the "Vegas" line.
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
Pinnacle is right. The opposite of what you stated. In yesterday's thread I had explained how KP doesn't take into consideration the intangibles that Vegas does. These intangibles will move the line slightly one way or the other, but not veering too far from the projected line. My plays are based on this hypothesis...and so far so good. I hope, for my bankroll's sake, this trend continues.
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
Pinnacle is right. The opposite of what you stated. In yesterday's thread I had explained how KP doesn't take into consideration the intangibles that Vegas does. These intangibles will move the line slightly one way or the other, but not veering too far from the projected line. My plays are based on this hypothesis...and so far so good. I hope, for my bankroll's sake, this trend continues.
phi thanks for sharing this system. Have to ask, but is it possible to back test this idea? If this systen is indeed has merit, it would be wise to be able to back test for any idea of its previous success or failure. It sucks to be out of the game based on a great idea which fails to produce results over the long term.
anyway not meaning to bash but i have had a ton of experience of following a system where i went broke b.c i did not take the time to back test. Since then i have learned some discipline, but it was something i would not want to repeat.
phi thanks for sharing this system. Have to ask, but is it possible to back test this idea? If this systen is indeed has merit, it would be wise to be able to back test for any idea of its previous success or failure. It sucks to be out of the game based on a great idea which fails to produce results over the long term.
anyway not meaning to bash but i have had a ton of experience of following a system where i went broke b.c i did not take the time to back test. Since then i have learned some discipline, but it was something i would not want to repeat.
Jakeandba- This post puts me over 100 picks for this system. Which goes back about 3 to 4 weeks. It is 60 and 40 including today's first 3 games that have finished. So it has hit at 60%. I went for 90 picks before I posted. I don't think I'm going to go back any further, however if anyone else has the time and desire that would be awesome. I'm not claiming this will be perfect. Just hoping to continue at this rate, nothing more. I'll probably run this for another week or two. Best of luck to you and appreciate your post.
Jakeandba- This post puts me over 100 picks for this system. Which goes back about 3 to 4 weeks. It is 60 and 40 including today's first 3 games that have finished. So it has hit at 60%. I went for 90 picks before I posted. I don't think I'm going to go back any further, however if anyone else has the time and desire that would be awesome. I'm not claiming this will be perfect. Just hoping to continue at this rate, nothing more. I'll probably run this for another week or two. Best of luck to you and appreciate your post.
Phil, maybe we can tweak it. It seems like the teams getting the big spreads aka Lasalle do not cover. Maybe bet the teams where the spreads are 10 and below. I don"t know, just throwing it out there.
Phil, maybe we can tweak it. It seems like the teams getting the big spreads aka Lasalle do not cover. Maybe bet the teams where the spreads are 10 and below. I don"t know, just throwing it out there.
PCP333 - That may be a better way. I can say in the past there have been a few 14 to 17 point dogs that have covered. I think that "beaverfan" may have a better strategy, which has a higher number for those larger spread games. I know I don't like being on the losing side of a 100 to 62 ball game that's for sure, so if tweaking is what the system needs I'm all about it. Thanks for the post. Good Luck.
PCP333 - That may be a better way. I can say in the past there have been a few 14 to 17 point dogs that have covered. I think that "beaverfan" may have a better strategy, which has a higher number for those larger spread games. I know I don't like being on the losing side of a 100 to 62 ball game that's for sure, so if tweaking is what the system needs I'm all about it. Thanks for the post. Good Luck.
way to rock n roll phi131 awesome thread all report back for conclusion theres merit here !!!!!!!!! ive been workin with the beaver hes tweeking a kempom trend trying to all put our minds together has gotta be an EDGE thx for sharing and best of luck!!!!!!!!!
way to rock n roll phi131 awesome thread all report back for conclusion theres merit here !!!!!!!!! ive been workin with the beaver hes tweeking a kempom trend trying to all put our minds together has gotta be an EDGE thx for sharing and best of luck!!!!!!!!!
Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.
Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.
Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.
4-3 today ....not bad but I agree we probably need to tweak this system a little....
Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.
4-3 today ....not bad but I agree we probably need to tweak this system a little....
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