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Author: [College Football] Topic: Michigan
SatNightFever05 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 6/13/2012 6:26:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I'll probably take Michigan if I can get 14 or so.....Saban aint gonna run up the score ....he'll continue to pound the ball up the middle and sit on a lead


Saban hates UM from his MSU days..  would not surprise me in the least to see Saban run it up
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#27
Posted: 6/13/2012 6:29:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



Saban hates UM from his MSU days..  would not surprise me in the least to see Saban run it up

Nah. Its too early in the season to be losing players in the 4th quarter of a game you already have won. The NC isnt won in the first week, but it can be lost.

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#28
Posted: 6/13/2012 6:33:44 PM
I don't know if Saban knows how to run it up with his style of coaching but the offense will be good enough to do so for once.
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#29
Posted: 6/13/2012 7:40:09 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jwheels86:

I don't know if Saban knows how to run it up with his style of coaching but the offense will be good enough to do so for once.

Anything under 14 I'll bite (Bama), Michigan could make a game out of this, kudos if they do..but on the other hand, I can see Bama rollin'.

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#30
Posted: 6/13/2012 8:53:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jwheels86:

I don't know if Saban knows how to run it up with his style of coaching but the offense will be good enough to do so for once.

With a new OC.

http://www.rolltide.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011812aab.html

Saban could change some of his style on offense, nobody will know until a few weeks into the season.

With a QB like McCarron i can't see Saban not letting him go to the air more with the WR core he has put together.

In a spring practice game McCarron passed for nearly 300 yards under the new OC.

Remember in the NCG McCarron passed a lot, proving Saban will change his style.

I really can't see Saban not turning McCarron loose this year.

The defense will be coached the same with Kirby Smart.

 

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#31
Posted: 6/14/2012 11:43:43 AM

Unless Alabama makes a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes, I really don't see how this game is competitve.  The only other scenario I can conjure up is if Alabama has to settle for a lot of field goals.  IMO Alabama should score in the 30-40 point range, and Michigan will be extremely fortunate to reach double digits.  I will watch some more film on Michigan before I do my final write-up, but I can't see my opinion being swayed much.  As of now, if I can get this under 2 TDs, I will Max Bet the game.

 

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#32
Posted: 6/14/2012 12:02:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lucan:

With a QB like McCarron i can't see Saban not letting him go to the air more with the WR core he has put together.


And to top it off, Bama returning 4/5 on the OL and having Lacy, Hart and others vs a UM DL that is replacing 3/4 of its starting, including its top two defenders, it's going to be a long day for the UM defense..

Not sure I'd go as far as Jimmy in terms of 40 pts for Bama, but something like 31-14 seems about right
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#33
Posted: 6/14/2012 1:10:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



And to top it off, Bama returning 4/5 on the OL and having Lacy, Hart and others vs a UM DL that is replacing 3/4 of its starting, including its top two defenders, it's going to be a long day for the UM defense..

Not sure I'd go as far as Jimmy in terms of 40 pts for Bama, but something like 31-14 seems about right

Well I'm saying 30-40.  It will probably be on the low end if Michigan can protect the ball; the high end if they can't.

Really don't see Michigan scoring 14.  They'll probably need help to get there.

 

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#34
Posted: 6/14/2012 1:26:46 PM

Tilt with Tide will set Big Ten tone

Michigan's season opener will shape national opinion of conference

http://espn.go.com/colleges/michigan/football/story/_/id/8033656/michigan-wolverines-carry-big-hopes-alabama-crimson-tide

 

 

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#35
Posted: 6/14/2012 1:42:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Well I'm saying 30-40.  It will probably be on the low end if Michigan can protect the ball; the high end if they can't.

Really don't see Michigan scoring 14.  They'll probably need help to get there.



I can see UM getting two TD's.. As much as the Bama defenders are fast and talented, they are still somehow green and Denard is fast.. could easily see him getting outside the pocket a couple times and burning the Tide for some long gains

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#36
Posted: 6/14/2012 5:15:27 PM
Nothing here to see, Alabama wins this game big. Pretender vs 2 Time National Champions in the last 3 years. Saban didn't want to run up the score against Mich State in the Capital one bowl, they still won 49-7 by pounding the ball. So therefore your point is invalid. By winning more than 12-14 points isn't considered "running up the score" anyway.
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#37
Posted: 6/14/2012 7:46:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



I can see UM getting two TD's.. As much as the Bama defenders are fast and talented, they are still somehow green and Denard is fast.. could easily see him getting outside the pocket a couple times and burning the Tide for some long gains

I have no doubt that Denard will make a few plays with his feet, but I don't think that it will translate into 14 points.

There will be no "green" defenders taking the field for Alabama.  Pretty much all of them have extensive experience.  Here are a couple of examples.

Just reading straight out of Phil Steele's magazine, Dee Milner, who is replacing the 17th overall draft pick in the NFL draft, had 11 starts, 55 tackles, 9 pass break-ups and was a 1st team Freshman All American in 2010.  Milner IMO will be better than Dre Kirkpatrick.  He's bigger, stronger, faster, is a better tackler and was a more highly touted recruit coming out of high school.  Everyone whose opinion I value thinks he'll be better as well.

Ed Stinson (who may not even be the starter) played in all 13 games last season, had 19 takles, and 5 for a loss.

There are only two starting players (according to PS's magazine) that I think can be considered even remotely green, and they may not be even be the starters.  But basing it strictly off of PS's projected starting lineup, OLB Xzavier Dickson will be a true sophmore who only appeared in 7 games, had 3 tackles, and 1.5 for a loss straight out of high school.  That he played that much as a true freshman on one of the greatest defenses in college football history should give you an indication of just how good he is.

The only other player I might consider somewhat green is JUCO CB transfer Deion Belue, but only because he's new to the scheme and the DI level of play.  But as I said above, Belue, who is a fabulous athlete and one of the best cover guys I've ever witnessed, may not even be the starter.  If he doesn't start John Fulton, who was a very highly touted recruit, has been in the system 3 years.  He played in all 13 games last season.  Regardless of who gets the start in this CB spot, I also consider it an upgrade over 5th round selection DeQuan Menzie.

The question for Alabama's defense will not be talent or experience.  Their challenge will be to replace Dont'a Hightower and Mark Barron's on-the-field leadership.

 

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#38
Posted: 6/14/2012 8:08:07 PM
Im not sure how Michigans defense will be right now but I heard they got a few good players this year up front defensively. Mattison has changed their program instantly on that side of the ball and knows what it's like to scheme against SEC teams but the talent is different. I could only see Bama scoring that many if Denard continues to turn the ball over and they have no running game, which is very possible but 35-38 would be a lot to score for Bamas offense unless it just completely changes under this new OC in the first game.
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#39
Posted: 6/14/2012 8:14:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I have no doubt that Denard will make a few plays with his feet, but I don't think that it will translate into 14 points.

There will be no "green" defenders taking the field for Alabama.  Pretty much all of them have extensive experience.  Here are a couple of examples.

Just reading straight out of Phil Steele's magazine, Dee Milner, who is replacing the 17th overall draft pick in the NFL draft, had 11 starts, 55 tackles, 9 pass break-ups and was a 1st team Freshman All American in 2010.  Milner IMO will be better than Dre Kirkpatrick.  He's bigger, stronger, faster, is a better tackler and was a more highly touted recruit coming out of high school.  Everyone whose opinion I value thinks he'll be better as well.

Ed Stinson (who may not even be the starter) played in all 13 games last season, had 19 takles, and 5 for a loss.

There are only two starting players (according to PS's magazine) that I think can be considered even remotely green, and they may not be even be the starters.  But basing it strictly off of PS's projected starting lineup, OLB Xzavier Dickson will be a true sophmore who only appeared in 7 games, had 3 tackles, and 1.5 for a loss straight out of high school.  That he played that much as a true freshman on one of the greatest defenses in college football history should give you an indication of just how good he is.

The only other player I might consider somewhat green is JUCO CB transfer Deion Belue, but only because he's new to the scheme and the DI level of play.  But as I said above, Belue, who is a fabulous athlete and one of the best cover guys I've ever witnessed, may not even be the starter.  If he doesn't start John Fulton, who was a very highly touted recruit, has been in the system 3 years.  He played in all 13 games last season.  Regardless of who gets the start in this CB spot, I also consider it an upgrade over 5th round selection DeQuan Menzie.

The question for Alabama's defense will not be talent or experience.  Their challenge will be to replace Dont'a Hightower and Mark Barron's on-the-field leadership.

 

Jimmy we usually agree on most things but come on man........ You cant say that this defense will be the same. It's just a fact that the experience level is different. Hell, Alabama put what 4 defensive guys in the first 25 picks or something??

There will be a " adjustment " . Will they still be a good defense? Yes. But let's not act as if you didn't lose your best defensive players and all is fine.


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#40
Posted: 6/15/2012 12:59:51 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Im not sure how Michigans defense will be right now but I heard they got a few good players this year up front defensively. Mattison has changed their program instantly on that side of the ball and knows what it's like to scheme against SEC teams but the talent is different. I could only see Bama scoring that many if Denard continues to turn the ball over and they have no running game, which is very possible but 35-38 would be a lot to score for Bamas offense unless it just completely changes under this new OC in the first game.

I really do not intend to disrespect Michigan in any way.  To the contrary, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Brady Hoke and what he's done in the very short time he has been at the helm there.  Michigan also has two very good coordinators - offensive coordinator Al Borges (the erstwhile OC at Auburn), and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison.  This coaching staff also pulled a tremendous recruiting class in February - by far Michigan's best in several years.  So there is not a shred of doubt in my mind that the Michigan program is in good hands under Hoke.

That said, Michigan's offense is really a less talented version of what Alabama faced in the national championship game minus the power running attack.  Alabama will again will be facing an athletic QB with horrible mechanics and an erratic arm.  What makes matters even worse for Michigan is that DR is probably not even 6 feet tall.

In my extensive postings about the national championship game I said that the first game between LSU and Alabama could have gone 8 quarters and LSU would have never scored a TD against Alabama's defense.  It was quite clear from the first game that LSU's offense vs. Alabama's defense was a mismatch.

Prior to the championship game I repeatedly ask the question of how will LSU's offense score against Alabama's defense.  Anyone with half of a brain knew Saban would take away the option game, and once that happen LSU was basically dead and stinking.  After all if you can't run between the tackles and you can't run wide, and you can't pass, what do you have left???  The answer is nothing.  I hammered this point repeadtedly.  I also said repeatedly that for LSU to have a chance in the game that JJ will have to make plays in the passing game, which I had zero confidence he could do.  And even though I did not predict a shutout, I said it was a very real possibility.

In my final write-up on the day of the national championship game I said that the only shot LSU had to score a touchdown would be by way of a big offensive play of some sort (like the Florida game), or by way of a non-offensive TD.  Aside from that, I opined, they really had no shot of driving the field and getting into the end zone.

I say all of that to ask the same question of this game.  What will Michigan be able to do consistenly on offense that will result in points???  In my mind, knowing what I know about Alabama's defense, I think the answer is the same as it was for the LSU game - nothing.

This season Alabama's defense will be slightly smaller, but faster and more athletic.  Nevertheless, ask yourself the following question.  Do you think Michigan will be able to run wide on Alabama's defense???  I think the answer is absolutely not.  Will Michigan be able to run the ball between the tackles???  I also thing that is futile.  Look, Saban and Kirby Smart are going to game-plan to stop the run and force DR to beat them with his arm.  Does anyone on Covers really believe that DR (much like JJ in the the national championship game) is going to beat Alabama with his arm???  It's almost a ludacris thought.  Sure DR may scramble for a first down now and then, just as JJ did, but IMO that won't be nearly enough to keep Michigan in this game.

With respect to the matchup between Alabama's offensive line versus Michigan's defensive line it is a complete mismatch.  If LSU's defensive line with one NFL first round pick and two future NFL first round picks couldn't handle Alabama offensive line, why on earth would anyone think Michigan's defensive line that returns one out four up front is up to the task???  Again, it's almost a ludacris thought.

Alabama will dominate this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  And as much as anything else that's why this game won't be very competitive, and by extension, why Alabama will cover any spread under 17 IMO.  If I can get a number under 14, I will max bet the game.

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#41
Posted: 6/15/2012 2:02:26 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Jimmy we usually agree on most things but come on man........ You cant say that this defense will be the same. It's just a fact that the experience level is different. Hell, Alabama put what 4 defensive guys in the first 25 picks or something??

There will be a " adjustment " . Will they still be a good defense? Yes. But let's not act as if you didn't lose your best defensive players and all is fine.


I don't think anyone would take issue with the argument that last season's defense was one of the best in the history of modern college football, so it would be bold indeed if someone were to predict this season's defense will be able to meet or exceed last season's record-breaking performance.  I am certainly not putting forth such a prediction.

First of all, who went to the NFL when and where from last season's defense has zero effect on this season's defense.  This season's defense is what it is.  It will stand or fall on its own merit.  Secondly, Alabama will have 4 or 5 defensive players being drafted into the NFL every season.  Basically if you aren't a NFL caliber player, you aren't playing on Saban's defense.  It's really that simple

I must speak somewhat in general terms with respect to this season's defense because who is going to play what and where have not yet been determined.  Thus it is difficult for me to speak specifically about a player until I have an idea how prominent of a role he'll play.  That's why I always wait until I view the last scrimmage in the fall before doing my annual write-up.

Conservatively speaking at least 9 out of the 11 players on this season's starting defense will be playing at the next level, and it's not really a stretch to say that perhaps 10 or 11 will play at the next level.  As I said above, what we saw in the latest NFL draft will be an annual occurrence as long as Saban is at Alabama.  I'm not saying Alabama will have 4 or 5 1st round draft picks every season, I'm simply pointing out that everyone that plays on Alabama's defense this season, and for the defenses in the foreseeable future will be NFL caliber players.

On this season's defense everyone in the seconday and all of the linebackers will play in the NFL someday.  In fact at least 6 of  8 the linebackers in the 2-deep are pretty much locks to play at the next level, and the other two have a decent shot based on future performance.  The only defensive lineman that I'm prepared to say will play at the next level at this point is Jesse Willaims although others certainly have the opportunity to play their way into the NFL discussion.

Talent is not the issue on this defense.  This season's defense is every bit as talented as last season's defense.  Experience is also really not a major factor.  Everyone on the field will have been well-schooled in Saban's system, and will be assignment sound.  The question for this defense is who will step up and replace the leadership roles that Dont'a Hightower and Mark Barron fulfilled on last season's defense???  Those two guys were the heart and sole of the defense.  Whether Alabama will be able to replace that leadership void will go a long way in determining how successful this season's defense will be.  If they get Barron/Hightower-like leadership, then they have a chance to be as good as last season's defense.  My guess is that it will take some time, however, for the new leaders to emerge, thus this defense, although exceptionally talented in its own right, will probably not match what last season's defense accomplished.

 

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#42
Posted: 6/15/2012 3:52:07 AM
Jimmy while a lot of that is true there are two things factoring, Bama does not have the same players or team on defense.. They will be good but it is the first game and a lot of new spots and one thing is for certain, even Robinson is much better at QB than Jefforson is. That guy was the worst player at the entire combine even behind kickers. UGA shut him down just the same, he was pathetic. This is a terrible matchup for Michigan but I certainly expect more out of them then Jeffersons worthless behind in the title game offensively and they can actually get to midfield and make SOME kind of plays on that side of the ball while not a lot but at least some to keep the clock moving. I think Bama will cover but I don't expect some 45-10 score.
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#43
Posted: 6/15/2012 9:03:34 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Jimmy while a lot of that is true there are two things factoring, Bama does not have the same players or team on defense.. They will be good but it is the first game and a lot of new spots and one thing is for certain, even Robinson is much better at QB than Jefforson is. That guy was the worst player at the entire combine even behind kickers. UGA shut him down just the same, he was pathetic. This is a terrible matchup for Michigan but I certainly expect more out of them then Jeffersons worthless behind in the title game offensively and they can actually get to midfield and make SOME kind of plays on that side of the ball while not a lot but at least some to keep the clock moving. I think Bama will cover but I don't expect some 45-10 score.

"Jimmy while a lot of that is true there are two things factoring, Bama does not have the same players or team on defense."

I've addressed this on more than one occasion.

"Robinson is much better at QB than Jefforson"

Really???  How so???  You mean he's a better runner???  He certainly isn't a better passer.

Prior to the national championship game many pundits were saying that "Jefferson's worthless behind" was leading LSU to the greatest season in the history of college football.

Again, what will Michigan do offensively to "actually get to midfield," and what are these "SOME kind of plays" that DR will supposedly make you speak of??? Is he going to hand the ball off to Toussaint???  Is he going to tuck it and run it himself???  Is he going to throw it??? (God forbid), or will Al Borges just trick-play Michigan down the field???  How exactly do you see this coming about???  Personally I don't think Michigan will have much success doing any of the above.

Go back and watch the Sugar Bowl again.  Michigan's offense was thoroughly dominated by Virginia Tech's defense (they had 184 total yards and 12 first downs).  The only reason Michigan won that game, much less were competitive in that game was due to the officiating.  I rarely scream "fix," but that game was absolutely fixed by the officiating crew.  No objective person could watch that entire game and the string of horrendous calls (all going against Virginia Tech) and think otherwise.  It was beyond obvious.

Be that as it may, if DR and Michigan's offense was so thoroughly dominated by Virginia Tech's defense, what makes you think they will fare better against Alabama's defense???  They won't.

 

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#44
Posted: 6/15/2012 1:42:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Im not sure how Michigans defense will be right now but I heard they got a few good players this year up front defensively. Mattison has changed their program instantly on that side of the ball and knows what it's like to scheme against SEC teams but the talent is different. I could only see Bama scoring that many if Denard continues to turn the ball over and they have no running game, which is very possible but 35-38 would be a lot to score for Bamas offense unless it just completely changes under this new OC in the first game.


UM is actually replacing 3/4 of its DL and lost its two best players on D (both from the DL).. they return basically their entire back 7 though, which should help offset some of the issues the DL will most likely have against Bama
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#45
Posted: 6/15/2012 1:43:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

That said, Michigan's offense is really a less talented version of what Alabama faced in the national championship game minus the power running attack.  Alabama will again will be facing an athletic QB with horrible mechanics and an erratic arm.  What makes matters even worse for Michigan is that DR is probably not even 6 feet tall.



Denard is much better overall than JJ
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#46
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:10:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



UM is actually replacing 3/4 of its DL and lost its two best players on D (both from the DL).. they return basically their entire back 7 though, which should help offset some of the issues the DL will most likely have against Bama

I heard that but Michigan fans told me they got some good young ones. I don't keep up with their recruiting very closely anymore because it fell off for the most part until now for awhile so I can't really take their word for it. 
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#47
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:13:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

"Jimmy while a lot of that is true there are two things factoring, Bama does not have the same players or team on defense."

I've addressed this on more than one occasion.

"Robinson is much better at QB than Jefforson"

Really???  How so???  You mean he's a better runner???  He certainly isn't a better passer.

Prior to the national championship game many pundits were saying that "Jefferson's worthless behind" was leading LSU to the greatest season in the history of college football.

Again, what will Michigan do offensively to "actually get to midfield," and what are these "SOME kind of plays" that DR will supposedly make you speak of??? Is he going to hand the ball off to Toussaint???  Is he going to tuck it and run it himself???  Is he going to throw it??? (God forbid), or will Al Borges just trick-play Michigan down the field???  How exactly do you see this coming about???  Personally I don't think Michigan will have much success doing any of the above.

Go back and watch the Sugar Bowl again.  Michigan's offense was thoroughly dominated by Virginia Tech's defense (they had 184 total yards and 12 first downs).  The only reason Michigan won that game, much less were competitive in that game was due to the officiating.  I rarely scream "fix," but that game was absolutely fixed by the officiating crew.  No objective person could watch that entire game and the string of horrendous calls (all going against Virginia Tech) and think otherwise.  It was beyond obvious.

Be that as it may, if DR and Michigan's offense was so thoroughly dominated by Virginia Tech's defense, what makes you think they will fare better against Alabama's defense???  They won't.

 


I don't think Michigan has a chance in that game and never did and it is the worst matchup for them ever with that QB in the first game of the year. but… Let's be honest here, You really can't get much worse than Jefferson was and if anyone thought he was winning them games last year they do not know football very well. They ran the football and beat defenses down over the game and with the defense, THEN Jefferson was able to make some plays with his legs and some PA. DR is better than Jefferson, that doesn't mean he is going to beat Alabama. I think the game will never be close but the score like many bama games will not represent it, until I see them stop settling for so many FG's and punch it in when they should I will believe their high scoring total you are predicting, maybe with the new OC we see that and I hope so for my moneys sake but until I see it… You are kind of acting like Bama is playing North Texas
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#48
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:17:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jwheels86:


I heard that but Michigan fans told me they got some good young ones. I don't keep up with their recruiting very closely anymore because it fell off for the most part until now for awhile so I can't really take their word for it. 


Yea, they have couple solid true frosh at the DL, but really, if they are relying on true frosh to do anything, there are issues there (outside the obvious 5* can't miss prospect)
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#49
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:20:52 PM
I would Love to see Michigan somehow knock off Bama in week 1 ... Since I will NOT have one penny riding on the Tide in my Futures wagers....

But I just don't see how Michigan will keep the chains moving ... Could see Bama in the backfield all game and shoelace throwing the ball away to the wrong team ....

Might be worse than the Bowl game Michigan had vs Miss St 2 years ago ....


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#50
Posted: 6/16/2012 6:01:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Nah. Its too early in the season to be losing players in the 4th quarter of a game you already have won. The NC isnt won in the first week, but it can be lost.

This is a fact...

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