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if i understood the system properly, sac kings have covered last 5 games ats. they are in the list of low win percentage as mentioned above.

so i am fading them in the next game. winning 6 ats is very rare in this system

btw, all the bets today lost. is that true ?

Teams under .368 (As of Feb 5)

           Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

1. NJ Nets     (ATS 12-14)  (.308)  lost 3
2. Toronto      (ATS 14-12)  (,308)  won 3 ***
3. Detroit       (ATS 9-16) (.231) won 2 ***
4. Washington(ATS 8-17)  (.200) lost 3
5. Charlotte    (ATS 9-16)  (.120)  won 2******   
6. New Orleans (ATS 10-15)  (.160) lost 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. G.S.          (ATS 9-12)   (.364) lost 2
2. Phoenix       (ATS 9-14)   (.440) won 2
3. NY Knicks   (ATS 9-15)   (.400)  won 5
4. Cleveland     (ATS 13-9) (.391) lost 1
5. Sacremento (ATS 12-13)  (.360)  won 6

TODAYS GAMES 2/8

MIL at TOR

DET at NJ

LEAN/WATCH GAMES

NY at WAS

LAST several  games

2/7 MIL

2/6 WAS , NO

2/4 NJ , NO , GS

2/3 BOS

2/2 POR

1/29 ATL , TOR

1/28 LAL

Tonight the plays should be Chi -13.5 and NJ +2.5. I think what glef may be getting at in the above post is also what concerns me. What are the odds that really good teams blow out really terrible teams on the road in a shorten/condensed schedule?

Isn't the most likely scenario that Chicago gets up 20 in the late 3rd and early 4th and being on the road, looking ahead to other games, they coast through the 4th and like a football game, give up a "back-door" cover?

-13.5 is a big spread. I think this is where we might be getting burned in this system and it might become even more prevelant as the season progresses and teams get increasingly tired. There is no way Chicago is going to be worried about winning by 15 or 20. They are on the road against a brutal team. They want out without injuries, period.

Might be interesting to watch tonight. My money would be on NJ covering and Chicago not.

I just back-tested this at Killersports accessing their extensive NBA data base which goes back at least to 1995 from the results of some of my queries.

The website I used is: http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?sid=guest&text=+&=1&submit=query

The query I entered is: WP<42.50 and p:ats margin>0 and p:WP<42.50 and pp:ats margin>0 and pp:WP<42.50 and ppp:ats margin>0 and ppp:WP<42.50

The results: 520-525-16 ATS.  That means roughly half the time a team with a SU WP of less than 42.50 (< .450) at the time of the fourth game won that fourth game ATS after winning ATS its last three in a row when at each of those three games the team had a WP less than 42.50.

So .. of those 520 fourth game ATS wins, what was the result of the sub .450 team's fifth game ATS: 235-231-4.

I don't believe this system works.

If we only care about the team's WP during the fourth game only, the results ATS are: 536-549-18 .. and for the fifth game ATS: 242-241-6.

Again, nothing.

So how was this really for just last season (2010-2011)?

To the first query add "and season = 2010" .. 26-39-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game.  (Note that when the fifth game test results don't add up to the fourth game ATS wins, it's because that team also won SU and its WP exceeded .425.)

The same for 2010 without considering the previous WP in the streak .. 27-41-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game.

Again .. nothing.

Back to the drawing board, I'm afraid.

I learned their query by reading their teaching guide: http://killersports.com/NBA/PDF/query_manual.pdf .

Just go to the link I provided in my previous post and use this guide and teach yourself.  That's the best way, I would guess.