Messages

Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

2012 Playoffs: 8-5-2, +8.95 Units

All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”

You boys are going to do what you want to do, so I am probably wasting my breath, but anyone that plays every side and/or total the rest of the way should not kid himself. He is nothing short of a degenerate gambler. Just read the board and look at how many fools went belly up yesterday. The ALCS, NLCS and World Series will present very few truly opportunistic chances to win a well computed or thought out bet. Face the facts. That really high line on Sabathia never came down yesterday because the smart money was not jumping the Orioles, the smart money simply was not playing. The Nationals were clearly the better side of the other game and if you played first five innings you got the win you deserved. Anyone that had the Cardinals FG simply got very lucky; it was not a brilliant pick at all. Maybe the Under in New York and the Over in Washington were solid picks but most of the board did not play the totals. What happens now is going to be very difficult to assess. All remaining games will be played in open air, cold weather venues, after sundown mostly, for the benefit of national television. The fans are going to be bundled up in parkas and the players won’t be wearing much less. Between innings pitchers will be in heavy jackets, with scarves around their necks and heavy gloves on their hands. This is not Arlington in August we are talking about. Baseball is a hot weather, loose muscle, sport and an uncomfortable body does not perform at its peak. Caution, a lot of it, is called for this time of year and forcing a play on every game is nothing short of foolish. If you turned a profit up to this point be conservative and tuck most of it away. If you are in the hole, don’t try to get it back with what remains of the playoff schedule. I know I won’t have much the rest of the way. I made too much money and take my handicapping too seriously to just foolishly insist on having a little something on every game I watch. Tonight’s game is a darn good example. The line has the Yankees at the commonly perceived home field advantage and that is probably about where it should be. If Fister and Pettitte are on their game you could have an “E-Z under” or one big inning by either team could create an “E-Z over”. Take your pick, flip a coin, but if you read a hundred posts today, with analysis, you won’t find three of them tomorrow that were spot on. Not three.  

BOL