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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread - WEDNESDAY 8-5-09
gfoss59
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#26
Posted: 8/5/2009 4:52:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

K-Play Dodgers -130 Looper / Schmidt
August is the time to separate contenders from pretenders and I think we go that way tonight. The Dodgers have not been the best looking team since the break but look like they are set to roll it up now. Looper has had the best part of his season and will fade with his team. The upset Monday night was probably it for the Brewers on this trip but Jason Schmidt still wants to cement his place in the post season rotation and is in good form. Lay it.
 
Indians +100 Liriano / Laffey
This game is not about the pitching. Liriano has been disappointing for his club, just 4-10 in his starts although 53-53 overall. Long story, short version, he is not carrying his weight. Not much to speak of on the road either at 3-5 and 5.92 era. Laffey is not overly impressive either, but 2-0 and 2.57 at home. What bettors are forgetting when they support the Twins as a favorite is that the Indians are currently the second best offense in all of MLB to contend with a lefty, trailing only the Yankees by only one slim point. Same pitching matchup? Yankees +100? Who do you take? The Indians are 6-2-2 their last 10 versus lefty in the 5 inning game and averaging 4.3 rp5ig. Liriano is a sitting duck, pull the trigger. 


I'm pretty much there on both calls -- thanks for crafting a characteristically crisp and cogent case.  Couple questions:

1. LAD -- hard to handicap the following, exactly, but what do you make of the dustup with Fielder and Moto last night?  Milwaukee's been a dog this year -- I don't mean underdog, I mean a dirty, smelly, lazy dog that lays down and dies when they get behind -- but I worry a tad about arousing the, well, sleeping dog.  And I know Bob likes Looper a lot, though I've never fully understood the romance.

2. Indians, I like a lot.  Cabrera, Hafner, and Peralta -- each has have homered against Liriano (3 total) in a combined 20 or so at bats; Shoppach and Marte batting .333 and .500 respectively.  Sizemore's only 1 for 11, and I hate not winning the leadoff matchup, but oh well.  And Laffey's done well against the Twins when the game is in Cleveland.  Considering both bullpens, and the fact the Twins will scrap for runs even if down, I also like the over, but would favor it for 9 -- bullpen risk in this case is "bullpen opportunity." 

We are approaching the point in the year (September, more so, but even now) when "nothing to play for," applied to teams, is a misconception. 

A lot of the guys playing for Cleveland, Washington, San Diego, Pittsburgh -- some of my favorite underdog spoilers in the second half -- do not have "nothing to play for."  (And maybe KC when Bannister or Greinke pitch against a team that doesn't "own" them historically.)  These guys are suddenly in the major leagues, flying on jets, eating steaks, or at least, even for guys who were on the roster, getting their chance to play -- and they have as much or more to play for than some lazy fatass pitcher who's won his Cy Young, signed for $200 million, and, well, has "nothing to play for," or at least, nothing to be hungry about. 

Anyway, good luck tonight -- stay thirsty, my friends....


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KeyElement
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#27
Posted: 8/5/2009 6:52:36 PM
Guess I will go post up Thursday
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KeyElement
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#28
Posted: 8/5/2009 6:56:28 PM
Wow, those two posts jumped up at the same time, back in a few. 
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KeyElement
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#29
Posted: 8/5/2009 7:10:53 PM
gotta confess 59 I am not fully up to speed on that dustup but can't believe it will have a game changing impact tonight.
 
I don't think teams or players quit early at all, there is always next years contract to think about and mental attitudes don't die until the last week when they can't really help it.
 
 
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JEG53
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#30
Posted: 8/5/2009 7:50:53 PM
Key,hope you played that SD over,3.5 is silly,Houston won also in 5,but couldnt bring myself to bet against my Giants,who won the game. 
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