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[MLB Betting] Topic: Wednesday 05/02 MLB (YTD 39-33 +11.54) |
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Tone10 |
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#1 Posted: 5/2/2012 9:36:05 AM YTD 39-33 +11.54
CLV (Closing Line Value): +9.34
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +3.33
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Always nice to go 2-1 yet pick up over 2 units, as I cashed with some juicy underdogs (Jays +150 and Marlins +155). Lost with the Indians as Ubaldo continues his freefall.
Today's card initially had six plays but my Cubs bet will be cancelled due to yesterday's rain out and the fact that I bet listed pitchers. Not entirely a bad thing, as it was one of my least favorite plays on the card and I kind of regretted it after I placed it.
As always, these were bet shortly after numbers were posted at BetOnline and Cris and were posted in my Tuesday thread.
Wednesday 5/2
954 Colorado Rockies +145
965 Miami Marlins +120
967 Texas Rangers EV
973 Oakland Athletics +170
977 Cleveland Indians +130
Good luck today everybody. |
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switchwalk |
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#2 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:50:23 AM  |
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NastyNate9 |
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#3 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:51:17 AM |
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Kirbs21 |
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#4 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:53:05 AM |
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mmac66 |
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#5 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:55:35 AM |
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tinfoils |
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#6 Posted: 5/2/2012 1:03:22 PM Backing 1 and 3! Good luck Tone! |
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Tone10 |
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#7 Posted: 5/2/2012 1:45:21 PM  switch, Nate, Kirbs, mac, tin
Looking like three good reads (Indians, A's, Marlins) and two bad reads (Rangers, Rockies). Need to tighten things up tomorrow, nothing worse than taking bad numbers. |
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Tone10 |
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#8 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:08:12 PM Tomorrow's card, just bet after BetOnline released their numbers.
Thursday 5/3
Miami Marlins +105
Arizona Diamondbacks EV
Seattle Mariners +175 |
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Tone10 |
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#9 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:32:02 PM One more for tomorrow.
Thursday 5/3
Miami Marlins +105
Arizona Diamondbacks EV
Seattle Mariners +175
Chicago White Sox -110 |
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GiLmo574 |
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#10 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:33:20 PM
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switchwalk |
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#11 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:36:14 PM Love anibal tomorrow
and that dbacks price is nice i hope pinny throws up something similar
Cant stand millwood 
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MIKECOUU78 |
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#12 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:40:44 PM |
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#13 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:45:12 PM |
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SportsFreak69 |
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#14 Posted: 5/2/2012 2:49:35 PM |
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ac_bum |
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#15 Posted: 5/2/2012 5:55:07 PM |
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Tone10 |
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#16 Posted: 5/2/2012 6:50:34 PM Gil, Mike, 3Dog, Freak, AC
Wednesday 5/2
954 Colorado Rockies +145 
965 Miami Marlins +120
967 Texas Rangers EV 
973 Oakland Athletics +170
977 Cleveland Indians +130
See-saw game out in Coors... nothing easy about that one but in tight games like that it's always preferable to have the + money than the - money. |
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Tone10 |
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#17 Posted: 5/2/2012 6:53:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk: Dayum Betonline is early on that garbage
Love anibal tomorrow
and that dbacks price is nice i hope pinny throws up something similar
Cant stand millwood
Thanks, switch.
Could not resist the price on Anibal at +105... I had it lined -105/-105. Not sure how much value I'll get on that D-Backs bet but I figured at worst I could squeeze out a 5 cent edge and I couldn't see it going below EV so I pulled the trigger.
Betting on Kevin Millwood is no fun, but at +175 worth a shot. Don't think Niemann should be laying -185... when you consider James Shields is laying -195 tonight against Blake Beavan, a pitcher who gets worse lines than Millwood, well, then -185/+175 for a Millwood/Niemann matchup just sounds plain silly. |
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switchwalk |
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#18 Posted: 5/2/2012 7:28:48 PM they had it at -109 for a while but its back to -106.
got the fish when pinny opened at -101 and saw it shoot up to -109 before settling back on -105
your logic on millwood is very sound...but i just cant pull the trigger
No love for the cubbies +139? dempsters not that bad and has some pretty damn good numbers against both the reds and at great american. ive already signed up for punishment 
GL bud |
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Tone10 |
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#19 Posted: 5/2/2012 9:16:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk: pinny opened dbacks -104 and i jumped on it as fast as i could.
they had it at -109 for a while but its back to -106.
got the fish when pinny opened at -101 and saw it shoot up to -109 before settling back on -105
your logic on millwood is very sound...but i just cant pull the trigger
No love for the cubbies +139? dempsters not that bad and has some pretty damn good numbers against both the reds and at great american. ive already signed up for punishment
GL bud
I actually really like the Cubbies and Dempster at that number... my line was -130/+120, so +139 is really enticing.
However, I have great respect for Pinnacle's opening numbers. They're the sharpest book out there, and if that's their opening line, then well, maybe I just didn't look into the game deep enough and I'm wrong.
My M.O. is to bet before Pinnacle opens. Once they open, I let the chips fall where they may.
Let's hope the Fish and D-Backs cash tomorrow. |
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#20 Posted: 5/2/2012 9:25:16 PM
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Tone10 |
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#21 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:00:34 PM
Jose, appreciate the thoughts. Hope to see you on some of those tomorrow.
Wednesday 5/2
954 Colorado Rockies +145
965 Miami Marlins +120
967 Texas Rangers EV
973 Oakland Athletics +170
977 Cleveland Indians +130
Tonight will be a good night regardless, but the Fish have the chance to make this real nice. |
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#22 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:06:36 PM |
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#23 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:10:47 PM |
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