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Author: [CFL] Topic: CL CFL
CoverLane send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CoverLane
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#26
Posted: 6/30/2012 11:15:14 PM
Eskimos ML 100  -->  103

record --> 3-0 + 244.74
full game totals--> 1-0
full game sides--> 1-0
second half sides --> 1-0


Unfortunately I was unable to watch the second half of this one...looks like the Eskimo's got lucky this week. Ricky Ray put up some decent numbers but they didn't translate into any scores. That trend is unlikely to continue. 

Tomorrow's game is a tough one to gauge...

anyone have any input on offensive/defensive line changes or secondary changes for either team? I find these to be key in evaluating teams during week 1.

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#27
Posted: 7/1/2012 2:43:38 PM
Happy Canada Day everyone!

What a great day to get drunk.

I've been looking at this Stampeders vs. Alouette matchup.

I see Montreal has 10 offensive linemen, so 4 of those will need to get cut...almost like this is another "tryout" for them.
They are missing their star defensive end with a knee injury but they still have Chip Cox back there. The Alouettes are running a new defensive scheme under a new defensive coordinator who had NO success when he coached in Winnipeg. He will be rushing 5 guys and playing mainly man-to-man coverage...obviously there will still be some zone drops but I think that Calgary will be able to put up some points at home today...in the range of 24+

I'm not sure if this will be enough to win. The Alouette offense can either look like the best the CFL has seen in years, or absolute trash. It all depends if Calvillo is making plays. The Stampeders are starting a rookie, non-import safety, who they just drafted this year. MacDougall didn't play in 2011 because of a quad injury. This will be his first game since 2010. Here is a clip from 2010 university training camp...MacDougall is #5 in the bottom left corner, he comes in the frame at about 5 seconds. Number 75, the receiver he is up against is Jade Etienne, currently with the Blue Bombers.

link to video...

short clip, but this kid can play. Turns out, he was my lab partner in spring 2011, he's a damn genius too. Some may look at him being back there as a disadvantage but I think he will do just fine.

 Calvillo is old and those old legs won't be moving as fast around the pocket. The Stampeder's have a solid defensive line with GOOD defensive ends...if the Alouette's offensive line makes mistakes, which they should be prone to, the Stampeder's front-line knows they need to take advantage.

Not  decided on a side or total yet...54 has jumped to 55 and that in itself a lot of points. 

Good luck in whatever you choose and ENJOY your Canada Day no matter what country you may live in. 
Drink safe everyone. 
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#28
Posted: 7/1/2012 3:17:30 PM
Calgary Stampeders -2.5 50 --> 53

Steam moved from -113 to +103...

Calgary's going to move the chains today.


Only a $50 play though...CFL




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#29
Posted: 7/1/2012 3:18:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

Calgary Stampeders -2.5 50 --> 53

Steam moved from -113 to +106...

Calgary's going to move the chains today.


Only a $50 play though...CFL




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#30
Posted: 7/1/2012 5:09:29 PM
Stamps GL
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#31
Posted: 7/1/2012 7:11:28 PM
Stampeders GL CL
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#32
Posted: 7/1/2012 9:58:29 PM
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#33
Posted: 7/2/2012 5:55:24 AM
record --> 4-0 +297.74
full game totals 1-0
full game sides 2-0
2nd half sides 1-0

didn't get to watch much of the game....but I did see the ball bounce into MacDougall's hands for the fumble return for the TD...can't tell me a  wasn't looking down on him for that play.

Got real drunk in downtown vancouver today...bottle of amaretto, two bottles of rum and 24 beer between me and 2 buddies. 


bout to throw a pizza in the oven and hope that baker wins this tennis match

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#34
Posted: 7/2/2012 10:02:44 AM
Very impressive start to the CFL season.  Best of luck the rest of the way and thanks for sharing your plays.
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#35
Posted: 7/2/2012 6:24:35 PM
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cheers everyone

week 2 looks a bit tighter but I'll be going over film this week.
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#36
Posted: 7/3/2012 12:58:15 AM
As I look more and more....

I think I see some value in the lines again this week.

But, afterall, this is the CFL. A team can lose by 40 one week and then win straight up the next week as 11.5 point underdogs. (See Saskatchewan Roughriders last year)

For Friday, I like the total going under 50 in Montreal. Once again, I don't see Winnipeg putting up a bunch of points. Montreal on the other hand has a chance of scoring 30+ but Winnipeg thrives on defense. I see around a 24-18 win for Montreal. The tough part about this is that Calvillo can put up points in a hurry when his throws are on target.  If their offensive line plays like garbage again he will struggle to score again.

Saturday in Toronto I like the over...Ricky Ray put up a good amount of yardage but just didn't get the points he should have. Edmonton grinded that game out with a bunch of short, conservative throws. Calgary lets it rip on offense and with the number only sitting at 47.5......I think we have an ok chance of reaching the over. Calgary can score and they do get a good amount of pressure on the QB. Last week though, their defensive line won them that game. I feel Toronto's offensive line can create enough time for Ricky Ray to move the sticks. This will be a wild game. I do see value on Toronto ML but I feel the over has a better shot than playing the side.

Sunday, I think the play is simple. As much as I hate backing the Roughriders, because you never know when this team is going to forget to show up. I've gone to enough Rider games where they just fail to execute on offense. But, they did look good against Hamilton and this new RB they have is full of talent. Jyles admits their offense needs work. They did a good job controlling the ball and moving the sticks, but they didn't score enough touchdowns. They have a good field goal kicker with a huge leg. This game may be low scoring if Edmonton employs the same strategy of ball possession/protection. 

I need to read more as the week progresses, but these are what some of my thoughts are at this moment.

GL this week if your wagering on any other sports. 


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#37
Posted: 7/6/2012 3:52:42 AM
record --> 4-0 +297.74
full game totals 1-0
full game sides 2-0
2nd half sides 1-0



Watched more film last night and tonight..I hope it will pay off

First play of the weekend is...
BOMBERS VS. ALOUETTES U51.5  52.50 --> 50
I'm taking my chances here that these teams don't combine for 52 or more points. I once again see Winnipeg struggling to score efficiently. They should be able to get some first downs, but I don't see the red zone conversions happening for them. They will be leaning heavily on their defense and hopefully they can stop Calvillo. Rollin' the dice with this one and something inside me is saying this girl will go over. If this loses, I will not fret. CFL is a wild sport and there is a TON of variability in the games. Hopefully this one works out and I can start week 2 with a winner. 


Best of luck to all
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Posted: 7/6/2012 12:20:41 PM
Good luck CoverLane! 

Tailed you on the Calgary play last week and I'll be looking for some of your insight this season. 


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#39
Posted: 7/6/2012 12:32:22 PM
G.L.
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#40
Posted: 7/6/2012 8:39:54 PM
In tough with this one. These offenses look like they have some pretty solid flow and their finding the holes in each others secondary.

But, it isn't over 51.5 so there is still a shot.




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#41
Posted: 7/6/2012 10:02:35 PM
BOMBERS VS. ALOUETTES UNDER 51.5-52.50

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I mentioned before that I thought the Winnipeg defense deserved more respect. I guess I was wrong. Giving up 74 points in two weeks does not equate to wins on a football field. Not only did their defense prove me wrong, their offense also proved me wrong by putting up 29 points. Congratulations Winnipeg, you were bailed out by poor Montreal special teams tonight. 

Congratulations to all the over & alouette backers  
-- I wish I was one of you.

Thankfully my wager was a small one.

I am making a wager on the Hamilton Tigercats tonight; BC Lions may have let that Week 1 win get to their heads....

HAMILTON TIGERCATS ML 15 --> 43.95


Good luck folks. 

Can't turn away this value, after all, this is the friggin CFL.


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#42
Posted: 7/7/2012 2:32:29 AM
Week 2 record 0-2 -67.50


See you in the am.

Runnin' with the stamps
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#43
Posted: 7/7/2012 1:02:21 PM
STAMPEDERS VS. ARGONAUTS OVER 50 115 --> 100


Locked this in last night minutes after my post....seems like the CFL has weaker defenses and stronger offenses this year, or at least early on. I know Calgary has a strong defense but that secondary is raw and will b e prone to mistakes. Ricky Ray & Chad Owens should be able to put some points up. On the other side of the ball, Drew Tate is going up against his former defensive coordinator....This should be no problem. Cornish & Lewis are two guys that can move the sticks, they just have to get the ball. 

This baby opened up at 47.5 and has been raising ever since... 

Enjoy your day and best of luck everyone

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#44
Posted: 7/7/2012 10:30:37 PM
STAMPEDERS VS. ARGONAUTS OVER 50  100

Week 2 record 1-2 +32.50


Didn't get to watch the game but I will later tonight. Congratulations to all the Toronto & Over bettors.

--

The game tomorrow between Edmonton & Saskatchewan is a tough one to gauge... I hate betting on the Roughriders, but I also have a tough time backing Jyles in this one (who was a former Rider backup QB)....If the Eskimos bring that conservative, grind it out style of play like they did versus the Argonauts last week, I think we will see this one go UNDER the total. (Lowest posted total this week fyi)
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Posted: 7/8/2012 1:43:45 PM


I like the Riders at mosiac Good luck bro
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#46
Posted: 7/8/2012 6:43:15 PM
ESKIMOS VS. ROUGHRIDERS UNDER 49.5 (-123) 61.50 --> 50
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#47
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:22:36 PM
ESKIMOS VS. ROUGHRIDERS UNDER 49.5 

--------------------------------------------
WEEK 1 RECORD 4-0 +297.94
WEEK 2 RECORD 2-2 +82.50

RECORD YTD 6-2 +380.44
--------------------------------------------
This wraps up another week of CFL... Glad to find myself in the positive. 

For those folks who based their play on the over in tonight's Edmonton vs. Saskatchewan game due to the fact that the previous 3 games this weekend have gone over....

Please, open your eyes. Each game is its OWN ENTITY.
Just because the previous 3 games this weekend went over doesn't mean that this one has a better or worse chance of going over. 

I was pretty upset with my poor pick in the Winnipeg/Montreal game...

Hamilton, despite how poorly they did play, only lost by 3 and still covered the spread 

Calgary/Toronto looked like an OVER game as I analyzed it throughout the week. I was lucky to win that wager as Drew Tate went down early in the game and I didn't expect Calgary to put up as many points as they did. I can thank poor special teams tackling + turnovers leading to points for that win. 

I only got home @ halftime tonight and saw the 6-1 score...I knew better than to watch the second half so I tuned into Nigeria / Dominican Republic FIBA Olympic Qualifiers...much better entertainment. Congratulations to the Nigeria D'Tigers on qualifying for the Olympics and beating the heartless Al Horford led Dominican Republic team. 

Until next week folks!

Good luck
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#48
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:26:39 PM



Nice job
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#49
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:35:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SirBruce:




Nice job

SirBruce

You make it to any of the Lion's games yet? I was going to go on Friday, but once I hit the couch after work there was no way I was getting off my behind....
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#50
Posted: 7/9/2012 12:24:00 AM

keep going cover.

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