Posted: 11/29/2011 12:35:00 AM
Originally Posted by Ice4Blood
i think somebody else said this... but for future reference, if you are in this situation... HEED THIS ADVICE:
don't consider it a 10-team parlay with 9 in the bag... consider it a 9-team parlay that has already cashed, leaving you with a decision to make on the last game, that amounts to this question:
you've just cashed out $960 (half of the 10-team payout)... would you rather...
- wager all of that $960 on one final play, all or nothing?... or...
- take the remaining $960 and give yourself a $960 FREE PLAY MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY?
second option gives you 3 possibilities:
- Saints win by more than 16 points... you win $960
- Saints win by less than 7 (assuming you straight bet the Saints as your hedge)... you win $960
- Saints win by 8-15... you win roughly $3000
win, win, more win! it is a no-brainer... don't ever take any other approach than this... the only alternative is to use an Alt-line (like -10.5 or -14.5)... but you absolutely MUST shoot for that middle in a situation like this... it is a FREE PLAY!
I hear ya but this incorrect and not that simple-
I could not have won 960 taking the saints -7 if they win by less than 7 here is why. I would have had to lay $1080 @ -105 juice which means If saints didnt cover the 7 I lose the $1080 i risked to hedge but i hit the parlay for $1650
S0 in the end I only net $1650-$1080 = $530 in that scenario