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Author: | [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL backtests |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
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#1Out of interest i did a backtest for some NHL systems. I don't use these systems, i don't know if anybody uses these systems, i was just backtesting the 3 game road chase system and did other systems at the same time. I backtested all postlockout seasons (starting with season 05-06) with this years season included. There are some minor mistakes as this was done with paper and pencil but that can't change the %. 1. 3 game road chase (a team goes on a 3 or more road games in a row) - ML bets (NO +1,5 PL!)A: 492-622 (44 %) B: 295-325 (48 %) C: 135-191 (41 %) 2. 3 game road chase - road team will lose one game out of 3 in regulation (that means you bet on home teams - ML bets can get very expensice so i did a backtest on regulation lines)A: 480-634 (43 %) B: 263-371 (41 %) C: 160-212 (43 %) 3. 3 game home chase (a team has 3 or more games at home in a row) - to win one game out of three in regualtionA: 484-598 (45 %) B: 267-327 (45 %) C: 130-201 (39 %) 4. 3 game home chase - to win one game out of three MLA: 607-474 (56 %) B: 254-220 (54 %) C: 114-107 (52 %) 5. 3 game home chase - home team will lose one game out of three A: 474-608 (44 %) B: 258-352 (42 %) C: 129-222 (37 %) |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#2 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#32 game UNDER chase: - playing only A bets: 939-1071 (47 %) - playing A and B: 1478-1603 (48 %) - playing A, B and C: 1734-1879 (48 %) 2 game OVER chase: A:965-884 (52 %) A,B: 1429-1304 (52 %) A,B,C: 1645-1508 (52 %) 2 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 1767-82 |

Danrules24 | View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point | |

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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4116
Location: Nevada |
#4 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#53 game UNDER chase: A:538-526 (51 %) A,B: 788-802 (50 %) A,B,C: 919-947 (49 %) A,B,C,D:989-1022 (49 %) A,B,C,D,E:1029-1057 (49 %) 3 game OVER chase: A:458-420 (52 %) A,B: 679-619 (52 %) A,B,C: 796-701 (53 %) A,B,C,D: 845-734 (54 %) 3 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 845-33 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#64 game UNDER chase: A:249-277 (47 %) A,B: 376-427 (47 %) A,B,C: 449-504 (47 %) A,B,C,D:491-539 (48 %) A,B,C,D,E:509-556 (48 %) 4 game OVER chase: A:222-200 (53 %) A,B: 337-285 (54 %) A,B,C: 386-321 (55 %) A,B,C,D: 406-337 (55 %) 4 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 406-16 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Location: Slovenia |
#75 game UNDER chase: A:129-150 (46 %) A,B: 200-229 (47 %) A,B,C: 243-265 (48 %) A,B,C,D:262-282 (48 %) A,B,C,D,E:270-291 (48 %) 5 game OVER chase: A:115-84 (58 %) A,B: 164-119 (58 %) A,B,C: 184-134 (58 %) A,B,C,D: 193-140 (58 %) 5 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 193-6 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Location: Slovenia |
#8 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#9QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:Seems like way too many loses on a 3 game chase. It would seem that the play would be system 4, but run each game (A, B C) on it's own labby line. 52% or more on a labby line is a money making system. System 1 is plus money system - i'm guesing that average odds are +130ish. So 48 % is not that bad right. |

Danrules24 | View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point | |

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#10QUOTE Originally Posted by ejackson:System 1 is plus money system - i'm guesing that average odds are +130ish. So 48 % is not that bad right.
True, you can make some money at 48% on +130 odds. |

Bart_ | View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle | |

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Joined: Mar 2008
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Location: Ontario |
#11 |

ejackson | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
Location: Slovenia |
#12 |

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