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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
jamilovesjason send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#201
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:16:43 PM
thumbs up on the orioles pick for tonight... i am on the same side

Texas was toppled three straight to go from first to second in the AL West. Wednesday's finale was especially disheartening with Josh Hamilton dropping a routine flyball to punctuate a six-run Oakland bottom of the fourth. An inning earlier the Rangers raced ahead 5-1 thanks to Adrian Beltre's, Michael Young's, David Murphy's and Geovany Soto's RBI-hits.

Baltimore went away pretty quietly in the rubber match at the 90-72 Tampa Bay Rays losing 4-1. The Orioles smoked in their only run during the ninth inning on Adam Jones' sacrifice fly getting in J.J. Hardy. Adam Jones and Mark Wieters were the other two Baltimore batters besides Hardy to get aboard via a base hit.

The Orioles go with newcomer 3-3 Joes Saunders and a 3.63 ERA to stymie Texas who he did not face with the 81-81 Arizona Diamondbacks or Baltimore this year. The Rangers have however seen him before and are 43-for-123 with 26 RBIs all-time, eight Ian Kinsler's, six Hamilton's and five Beltre's, versus Saunders who is 1-2 against the AL West this season.

The Orioles however did win Saunders' lone no-decision at the 75-87 Seattle Mariners 3-1. Saunders threw an eight-inning one-run gem. In losing at the A's Saunders gave up three runs during six innings. Saunders' first road start of the year with Baltimore came at the 73-89 Toronto Blue Jays on Sept. 3. Saunders went 6.1 innings of scoreless baseball in a 4-0 win.

16-9 Yu Darvish with a 3.69 ERA gets the start next for Texas trying to extend their playoff lives past Friday. Darvish in Arlington is 10-2 just losing in July to the 85-77 Chicago White Sox and Oakland allowing nine runs during 13.1 innings.In Darvish's victories at Rangers Ballpark he conceded 22 runs during 60 innings. Darvish is 4-1 versus post-season teams this year. The Orioles strangely have not seen Darvish yet. It would be easy to take Texas which is why I'm thinking Baltimore is a good play to make.


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#202
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:25:50 PM
Good thoughts. Texas should get this win. They're typically good after losses (good + roi yielding). I made this a smaller value play that's all. No harm done if we lose it.
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#203
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:46:44 PM
Tex too for myself.
And CIn tomorrow (because SF should've selected Bum_ so they've
conceded like Boston did selecting Daisuke Matsuzaka so the Yankee$ are assured of a whole series which is very good for baseball
cofers.
Leaning strongly on an at-home Verlander (hoping he's gotten into Kate Upton's pants already,
because that was throwing him off his game)

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#204
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:56:33 PM
And if Tex can get by tonight, that'll make the last 2 WS winners at the Big Dance with 2nd Runner-up Miss Texas.
Good for Major League Baseball, as an untouchable Brady NE is for the NFL, or as Gretzky relates to the NHL.  
Really a shame to grow-up and leave High School = the last sporting events stage where it is not corrupted so egregiously.  NCAA has no excuse albeit Gambling on its products; the rest are primarily "Entertainment" where a select few on select occassions pick up a few extra seasons at the ticket writers' terminal. 


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#205
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:34:13 PM
The rooting for Texas thread is nextdoor Pendo. 

Just kidding. Got Baltimore here. Must have missed my pick on the last page.
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#206
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:58:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 10.5.2012:

#903 Baltimore Orioles +184 ($68 to win $125.12) WINNER!
over the Texas Rangers

Is there something I'm missing? Why are the Orioles getting so much juice. I don't care, I'll take it.

Baltimore is 53-41 +25.07 units (+25.6% roi) this season against plus .500 teams. That's 28-22 +18.46 units (+36.9% roi) as road dogs (against +.500 teams)!

Not only that, but Baltimore is 14-3 +13.17 units (+67.8% roi) on 1+ day of rest. I trust Baltimore in the playoffs a whole lot more than I do Texas. I think the public is thinking: "the second time is a charm" and therein lies our value on this one.

Go O's! 

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#207
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:00:58 PM
New Bankroll: +$5,212.71 (+30.32%/Units)
(from $4000)
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#208
Posted: 10/6/2012 1:49:20 PM
Detroit looks like the best play for me today: 

Justin Verlander is 41-20 (+1.02 rpg, 67.2%) +$1019 as a home favorite against plus .500 opponents in his career. That’s 28-8 (+1.83 rpg, 77.8%) +$1469 since 2009.

My models like them too. No dogs today. Just that one small maybe. I like DET -1, but -132 odds. Yuck. History says it is value though....
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#209
Posted: 10/7/2012 1:36:45 AM
Tigers win it 3-1. Hope those of you who can stomach betting favorites made some cash.
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#210
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:14:04 AM
For 10.7.2012:

#916 Baltimore Orioles +152 ($70 to win $106.40)
over the New York Yankees


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#211
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:50:38 PM
Wow. Baltimore never went higher than what we got. I though more people would pile on Sabathia. 2-2 9th inning ....
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#212
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:08:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 10.7.2012:

#916 Baltimore Orioles +152 ($70 to win $106.40) Lost
over the New York Yankees



Nothing today. Washington and Baltimore come the closest.


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#213
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:04:05 AM
Nothing again for today. The Yankees come the closest. STL next up if you're looking at dogs.
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#214
Posted: 10/11/2012 10:54:59 AM
For 10.11.2012:

#937 Baltimore Orioles +142 ($140 to win $198.80)
over the New York Yankees

Good luck
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#215
Posted: 10/11/2012 5:08:24 PM
#937 Baltimore Orioles up to 157+
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#216
Posted: 10/11/2012 8:31:47 PM
Oak A's +118 (Vs. Verlander & Valverde)
poss. for "Bay Series"
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#217
Posted: 10/11/2012 8:34:50 PM
Very hard, even for the "V-men" to beat same opponent 3 times in the same year...

If the V-men turn out to be supermen then i like them to take everything
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#218
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:27:12 AM
Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO BIRDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#219
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:30:51 AM

POY 4 ME!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FUCKN EH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU HERBSHACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#220
Posted: 10/12/2012 3:01:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 10.11.2012:

#937 Baltimore Orioles +142 ($140 to win $198.80) WINNER!
over the New York Yankees

Good luck
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#221
Posted: 10/12/2012 3:02:55 AM
New Bankroll: +$5,354.11 (+33.85%/Units)
(from $4000)

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#222
Posted: 10/12/2012 3:03:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

POY 4 ME!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FUCKN EH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU HERBSHACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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#223
Posted: 10/12/2012 11:18:28 AM
i'm pretty bad at baseball.  any picks for tonight herbshack?
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#224
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:55:19 PM
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#225
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:58:24 PM
Good luck
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