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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFC/AFC Championship Games
Louis_IV
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#26
Posted: 1/21/2011 12:19:13 AM
bol on them dogs
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#27
Posted: 1/21/2011 1:09:16 AM
g bay n y jets bol
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#28
Posted: 1/21/2011 1:26:24 AM
I always respect your pick Bro, I feel bad because i pick Green Bay (Rodgers) and Pittsburgh (my team) this time.  Good luck Bro Bets2win , we may have the same under/over 
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#29
Posted: 1/21/2011 10:49:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bets2win:

LOVE the stat HEFADEME!!!

Now that I know this, I'll be watching the game with a Pen and Pad, nervously tallying every one of Forte's Rushes...  ... HaHa!

Is there a "Prop Bet" on Matt Forte's Rushes for the Game? I'm sure there is but my Local's Website doesnt post "Game Props" Until the day of the Game... Anyone care to check/share Forte's O/U for Rushes in the Game??? That could be interesting!

 

Best of Luck HEFADEME! Thanks for the insight buddy!  

 




I haven't seen any props yet for Forte O/U rushes.   I've only looked at a couple of books, though.

I looked up Bears run-pass attempts in the last 10 games.   It's easy to find the pattern in the numbers:

bears rushing-passing attempts last 10

sea        45-29    win
@gby    20-39    loss
jets        27-25    win
@min    33-24    win
pats        14-26    loss
@det    28-26    win
phi        28-21    win
@mia    40-25    win
min        38-35    win
@buf    31-30    win

When the Bears attempt more rushes than passes, they win.    When they pass more, they lose.    They obviously know that, and it makes me wonder about the last game @ Packers......20 rushes, 39 pass attempts.     Why did they abandon that winning formula?   Since they didn't need that game, maybe Lovie allowed Martz to call all the pass plays that his heart desired, to prove a point.   

I'd bet the Bears will attempt more rushes than passes on Sunday.   Too bad there isn't a prop for that.

       


 



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#30
Posted: 1/21/2011 1:25:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HEFADEME:




I haven't seen any props yet for Forte O/U rushes.   I've only looked at a couple of books, though.

I looked up Bears run-pass attempts in the last 10 games.   It's easy to find the pattern in the numbers:

bears rushing-passing attempts last 10

sea        45-29    win
@gby    20-39    loss
jets        27-25    win
@min    33-24    win
pats        14-26    loss
@det    28-26    win
phi        28-21    win
@mia    40-25    win
min        38-35    win
@buf    31-30    win

When the Bears attempt more rushes than passes, they win.    When they pass more, they lose.    They obviously know that, and it makes me wonder about the last game @ Packers......20 rushes, 39 pass attempts.     Why did they abandon that winning formula?   Since they didn't need that game, maybe Lovie allowed Martz to call all the pass plays that his heart desired, to prove a point.   

I'd bet the Bears will attempt more rushes than passes on Sunday.   Too bad there isn't a prop for that.

 

I think this falls back on Lovie outright saying he used their Last Matchup to "try new things" and ussually, "new things" are in the passing game, not the rushing attack... Chances are, they Passed A LOT more than usual to try these new things and now have a gameplan more tailored to their Strengths n Weaknesses... Lets hope that includes More Rushes and Less Passes than their last matchup.... We shall see!!

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#31
Posted: 1/22/2011 3:21:37 AM

Wow, the lack of understanding football is astounding.  When a team is up by a copule scores, they run the ball more, to kill the clock.  When they are down, the throw more to try and make up the deficit.  They dont win a game because they decide to run the ball more.  But this may be over some of your feeble minds, especially yours Bets2win.  Not to mention, you talk about your record and profit this season, but somehow you dont include juice, and for you the juice is much higher as you bought a ton of hooks.  But in reality, your bet unit size is $5, so who gives a damn.

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#32
Posted: 1/22/2011 4:16:52 AM
Right on bet i like Chicago
Stop hating on this dude man leave him the darn alone fuking ppl always got to hate so annoying. He still up for the season even with juice.
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#33
Posted: 1/22/2011 7:36:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bets2win:

you may be right sir... lets hope it doesnt backfire!

GL

HOLDING @ 3.5  Good decision B2W
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#34
Posted: 1/22/2011 10:51:51 AM

I am not hating, just stating some obvious facts that are clearly missed.  People that do not understand this, are very transparent in their attempts to look like a professional/ solid handicapper.  Ignoring these, shwos that someone is nothing more than a square, that believes he is a sharp.

 

But the unfortunate news for me is.... that both my bets this weekend are the same as Bets2win.  The logic is very different, and much more advanced than his, but the pick is the same.  So best of luck to you on Sunday Bets2Win.

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#35
Posted: 1/22/2011 1:33:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hey144:

I am not hating, just stating some obvious facts that are clearly missed.  People that do not understand this, are very transparent in their attempts to look like a professional/ solid handicapper.  Ignoring these, shwos that someone is nothing more than a square, that believes he is a sharp.

 

But the unfortunate news for me is.... that both my bets this weekend are the same as Bets2win.  The logic is very different, and much more advanced than his, but the pick is the same.  So best of luck to you on Sunday Bets2Win.

May i see your Season Record with Units accounted for???

I never claimed to be a pro handicapper, i just really enjoy betting football and this forum gives me a great place to put my thoughts into writing. I enjoy the 'constructive criticism' but hey144 never has anything positive to say and is definitely someones SAF, whos too box to talk garbage to me themselves!

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#36
Posted: 1/23/2011 10:28:28 PM
Managing the juice is one of the most important factors in successful gambling.

Laying -130 to cross over a '4' is a piss poor strategy. Always, ALWAYS, always limit your juice.

Tough day. It happens.

Who do you like in the SB, bets? 
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#37
Posted: 1/25/2011 11:38:18 AM
who you got, bets?
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#38
Posted: 1/26/2011 11:48:21 AM
stop posting. you had a great 2 week run early on. call it a day man.
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#39
Posted: 1/26/2011 11:12:28 PM
all that work typing only to come up less than empty handed...empty pockets too...
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#40
Posted: 1/27/2011 3:21:53 AM
Its all good bet pick it up on super bowl!!
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#41
Posted: 1/27/2011 4:41:32 AM

typical Hugh_jorgan... Bumps my thread when I Lose... Mancrush I guess... But to answer ur question, no picks for the SB yet, Leaning on GB but who knows, too much time still... For what its worth, i STRONGLY agree with you about laying an extra -20 on that -4.5 play was very very foolish. When it comes to laying and not laying extra juice, you are 100% right, i never denied that... its just the manner you go about it. you needle at me and ONLY bump my Losing threads... NEVER bump the winners, i know why, im not dumb, its just REALLY annoying...

Trav2282, I liked you for a while buddy but lately youve been a real prick. Take away my Regular Season 15-0 Run and i still Posted a .500+ Record, I took a lil peak at your posted plays, HAHAHAHAHA, you my friend, have NERVE criticizing my picks, yours are pathetic and LAUGHABLE!!! ....But remember Son, I post for ME... Not for YOU! .... just so you know... if i go 0-15, ill be back posting the next week... get used to it

Jmoe... Lotsa writing... Lotsa Losing... I cant deny that my friend.... But "empty pockets"? Hardly pal

Hungerformoney... Thanks for the Support once again buddy! Lets knock the Bookie DEAD this Superbowl brother!!!!

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#42
Posted: 1/27/2011 11:28:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bets2win:

typical Hugh_jorgan... Bumps my thread when I Lose... Mancrush I guess... But to answer ur question, no picks for the SB yet, Leaning on GB but who knows, too much time still... For what its worth, i STRONGLY agree with you about laying an extra -20 on that -4.5 play was very very foolish. When it comes to laying and not laying extra juice, you are 100% right, i never denied that... its just the manner you go about it. you needle at me and ONLY bump my Losing threads... NEVER bump the winners, i know why, im not dumb, its just REALLY annoying...

Trav2282, I liked you for a while buddy but lately youve been a real prick. Take away my Regular Season 15-0 Run and i still Posted a .500+ Record, I took a lil peak at your posted plays, HAHAHAHAHA, you my friend, have NERVE criticizing my picks, yours are pathetic and LAUGHABLE!!! ....But remember Son, I post for ME... Not for YOU! .... just so you know... if i go 0-15, ill be back posting the next week... get used to it

Jmoe... Lotsa writing... Lotsa Losing... I cant deny that my friend.... But "empty pockets"? Hardly pal

Hungerformoney... Thanks for the Support once again buddy! Lets knock the Bookie DEAD this Superbowl brother!!!!

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#43
Posted: 1/27/2011 11:28:48 AM
my bad...i was bored and felt like talking a lil trash...dont mind that...GL on your future plays...
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#44
Posted: 1/27/2011 11:30:03 AM
im jus upset cuz i back Chi too but got Pitt and over...also backed the under on Chi...so technically not bad...I just hate it because when I post which is very rare i lose...but do have a pretty good track record...normally...
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#45
Posted: 2/6/2011 12:09:08 PM
So what's the pick? 
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