Tampa Bay -3 (-120) Dallas +1 Oakland +7.5 Detroit -1 (-125) Ind/Jac Over 42.5 Hou/Chi Under 41.5
New Orleans will be a play, but I'll wait to see if I can a better number. If I can get Denver -3 at a good number I'll be on that as well. Rankings to follow. Good luck to everyone this week.
Tampa Bay -3 (-120) Dallas +1 Oakland +7.5 Detroit -1 (-125) Ind/Jac Over 42.5 Hou/Chi Under 41.5
New Orleans will be a play, but I'll wait to see if I can a better number. If I can get Denver -3 at a good number I'll be on that as well. Rankings to follow. Good luck to everyone this week.
Here are my rankings heading into Week 10 - again, these are just rankings (adjusted for SOS) of each team over their last 3 games, not the entire season to date. They are efficiency rankings - points scored and wins/losses are not accounted for at all, except to the extent that efficiency affects points/wins/losses (which is a significant amount).
Overall Rankings 1 Denver 2 Seattle 3 San Francisco 4 Pittsburgh 5 Carolina 6 Houston 7 New Orleans 8 Detroit 9 New England 10 Dallas 11 Tampa Bay 12 New York Jets 13 New York Giants 14 Buffalo 15 Green Bay 16 Cleveland 17 Chicago 18 Atlanta 19 Cinicnnati 20 Jacksonville 21 Arizona 22 St. Louis 23 Baltimore 24 Oakland 25 Tennessee 26 Indianapolis 27 San Diego 28 Washington 29 Miami 30 Minnesota 31 Philadelphia 32 Kansas City
Here are my rankings heading into Week 10 - again, these are just rankings (adjusted for SOS) of each team over their last 3 games, not the entire season to date. They are efficiency rankings - points scored and wins/losses are not accounted for at all, except to the extent that efficiency affects points/wins/losses (which is a significant amount).
Overall Rankings 1 Denver 2 Seattle 3 San Francisco 4 Pittsburgh 5 Carolina 6 Houston 7 New Orleans 8 Detroit 9 New England 10 Dallas 11 Tampa Bay 12 New York Jets 13 New York Giants 14 Buffalo 15 Green Bay 16 Cleveland 17 Chicago 18 Atlanta 19 Cinicnnati 20 Jacksonville 21 Arizona 22 St. Louis 23 Baltimore 24 Oakland 25 Tennessee 26 Indianapolis 27 San Diego 28 Washington 29 Miami 30 Minnesota 31 Philadelphia 32 Kansas City
Offensive Rankings 1 New Orleans 2 Denver 3 New England 4 Tampa Bay 5 Seattle 6 Detroit 7 San Francisco 8 Green Bay 9 Atlanta 10 Tennessee 11 Indianapolis 12 St. Louis 13 Pittsburgh 14 Dallas 15 Carolina 16 Buffalo 17 Cinicnnati 18 Washington 19 Houston 20 Miami 21 Baltimore 22 New York Giants 23 Arizona 24 Chicago 25 Oakland 26 Jacksonville 27 Cleveland 28 New York Jets 29 San Diego 30 Philadelphia 31 Minnesota 32 Kansas City
Offensive Rankings 1 New Orleans 2 Denver 3 New England 4 Tampa Bay 5 Seattle 6 Detroit 7 San Francisco 8 Green Bay 9 Atlanta 10 Tennessee 11 Indianapolis 12 St. Louis 13 Pittsburgh 14 Dallas 15 Carolina 16 Buffalo 17 Cinicnnati 18 Washington 19 Houston 20 Miami 21 Baltimore 22 New York Giants 23 Arizona 24 Chicago 25 Oakland 26 Jacksonville 27 Cleveland 28 New York Jets 29 San Diego 30 Philadelphia 31 Minnesota 32 Kansas City
Defensive Rankings 1 Denver 2 New York Jets 3 Carolina 4 Pittsburgh 5 San Francisco 6 Houston 7 New York Giants 8 Cleveland 9 Chicago 10 Seattle 11 Jacksonville 12 Dallas 13 Buffalo 14 Arizona 15 Baltimore 16 Oakland 17 San Diego 18 Cinicnnati 19 Minnesota 20 Detroit 21 Green Bay 22 New Orleans 23 Atlanta 24 New England 25 Miami 26 Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 28 St. Louis 29 Washington 30 Indianapolis 31 Tennessee 32 Kansas City
Defensive Rankings 1 Denver 2 New York Jets 3 Carolina 4 Pittsburgh 5 San Francisco 6 Houston 7 New York Giants 8 Cleveland 9 Chicago 10 Seattle 11 Jacksonville 12 Dallas 13 Buffalo 14 Arizona 15 Baltimore 16 Oakland 17 San Diego 18 Cinicnnati 19 Minnesota 20 Detroit 21 Green Bay 22 New Orleans 23 Atlanta 24 New England 25 Miami 26 Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 28 St. Louis 29 Washington 30 Indianapolis 31 Tennessee 32 Kansas City
Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated
Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated
Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated
The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable). Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well. Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department. What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines. Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's. It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog. I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.
Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated
The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable). Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well. Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department. What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines. Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's. It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog. I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.
The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable). Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well. Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department. What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines. Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's. It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog. I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.
Best of luck to you this week!
Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe.
That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp
The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable). Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well. Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department. What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines. Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's. It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog. I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.
Best of luck to you this week!
Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe.
That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp
Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe.
That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp
The RB position as a whole is vastly overrated. Sure, a guy with break-away speed can turn a 25 yard gain into a 75 yard TD, but that space and those plays are rare in this day and age. So much depends on blocking, and at this level, most guys are similar enough in ability that their VOR is not that high, if even significant. McFadden has the ability to be a game changer, I don't disagree with that. But over the last 5 weeks he has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in 4 of those 5, and 3.9 vs the lowly Chiefs (for the season he is at 3.3 yards per carry). I would bet that almost any back in the league could rush for 3 yards per carry behind the Raiders's line. He has 190 yards receiving over the course of the entire year. Reece had 95 last week vs Tampa alone, albeit as Oakland was throwing the ball more due to the score. For a 6'3, 240 lb FB, Reece actually has some speed. His size and athleticism will cause problems for a porous Ravens' run D that gives up 130 rushing YPG and 4.9 yards per carry over the last 3 (the majority of the time in which Ray Lewis has been out). In my opinion, if McFadden and Goodson being out inflates the line a little higher than it would normally be, there is actually an advantage to them sitting.
Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe.
That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp
The RB position as a whole is vastly overrated. Sure, a guy with break-away speed can turn a 25 yard gain into a 75 yard TD, but that space and those plays are rare in this day and age. So much depends on blocking, and at this level, most guys are similar enough in ability that their VOR is not that high, if even significant. McFadden has the ability to be a game changer, I don't disagree with that. But over the last 5 weeks he has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in 4 of those 5, and 3.9 vs the lowly Chiefs (for the season he is at 3.3 yards per carry). I would bet that almost any back in the league could rush for 3 yards per carry behind the Raiders's line. He has 190 yards receiving over the course of the entire year. Reece had 95 last week vs Tampa alone, albeit as Oakland was throwing the ball more due to the score. For a 6'3, 240 lb FB, Reece actually has some speed. His size and athleticism will cause problems for a porous Ravens' run D that gives up 130 rushing YPG and 4.9 yards per carry over the last 3 (the majority of the time in which Ray Lewis has been out). In my opinion, if McFadden and Goodson being out inflates the line a little higher than it would normally be, there is actually an advantage to them sitting.
2** Tampa Bay -3 (-115 combined) Dallas +1 Oakland +7.5 Detroit -1 (-125) Houston +1 New Orleans +3 (-125) Tennessee +6 Ind/Jac Over 42.5 Hou/Chi Under 41.5
Will be adding the Broncos if they line should move to -3 for some reason. Think Seattle is a strong play also, but the Jets' bye is scaring me away. Best of luck to everyone this week.
2** Tampa Bay -3 (-115 combined) Dallas +1 Oakland +7.5 Detroit -1 (-125) Houston +1 New Orleans +3 (-125) Tennessee +6 Ind/Jac Over 42.5 Hou/Chi Under 41.5
Will be adding the Broncos if they line should move to -3 for some reason. Think Seattle is a strong play also, but the Jets' bye is scaring me away. Best of luck to everyone this week.
Any Monday night leans? Pitt should blow out KC, What do you think?
My numbers point to a Steelers blowout (34-6 to be exact). But a couple categories don't meet my standards to make them a play. And I also avoid double digit faves like the plague. But I will say, if I were forced to choose a side, I would go Steelers.
Any Monday night leans? Pitt should blow out KC, What do you think?
My numbers point to a Steelers blowout (34-6 to be exact). But a couple categories don't meet my standards to make them a play. And I also avoid double digit faves like the plague. But I will say, if I were forced to choose a side, I would go Steelers.
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