GALLUP: ROMNEY OPENS SIX POINT LEAD, 51-45

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Author: [Politics] Topic: GALLUP: ROMNEY OPENS SIX POINT LEAD, 51-45
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/17/2012 1:59:14 PM

Note, Obama is polling 11% points below where GW Bush was at this point in 2004.

Link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Also note, National Journal poll has WI tied.

Link: http://nationaljournal.com/politics/poll-race-tied-in-wisconsin-20121017

Obama has pulled out of NC. So Indiana & NC are off the map for Obama as the voting begins.

Obama PAC cancels ad buy in Florida. Obama will cede Florida soon.

PA is within 3%

don juan PM don juan
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:07:44 PM
depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:08:23 PM
Meanwhile, Obama went from 61% pre-debate yesterday to 65% now at Intrade to win. 
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:13:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by depeche2:

Meanwhile, Obama went from 61% pre-debate yesterday to 65% now at Intrade to win. 

Good for him.

I guess.

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:23:02 PM
In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate has ever been over 50 percent in mid-October and gone on to lose.

The seven-day RCP average has Romney up 0.6 percentage points. In 2008, the RCP average had Obama winning by 6.7 percentage points, and in 2004, Bush was winning by 4.

depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:23:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Good for him.

I guess.



No guessing required.  Clearly it is good for him.  The market moved in favor of Romney after the first debate.  That pretty clearly tells you what the market thinks of the debate results and where the election stands now. 
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:27:19 PM
And in other news..

Unleaded gas is 3.65 locally, the Yankees are down 3-0 in their series and the Broncos had a huge comeback win against the Chargers.

What does a narrow poll like you are posting about have to do with the larger election exactly?
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/17/2012 2:59:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by depeche2:



No guessing required.  Clearly it is good for him.  The market moved in favor of Romney after the first debate.  That pretty clearly tells you what the market thinks of the debate results and where the election stands now. 

"The market" is being driven by people rooting for their favorite team.

 

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/17/2012 3:00:26 PM
What does a narrow poll like you are posting about have to do with the larger election exactly?
 
Um, there is no "narrow poll"
 
I referenced no "narrow poll"
 
So maybe you have a better question?
AustinHoopDream PM AustinHoopDream
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Posted: 10/17/2012 3:18:09 PM
why does your headline 51-46 differ from what the actual poll says which is 50-46?

perhaps so you could introduce this garbage :

"In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate has ever been over 50 percent in mid-October and gone on to lose."

yes i am certain it was an HONEST  mistake.


and why dont you include what the poll says about itself :

"While Romney's four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant"

yes i am certain that was an honest  mistake as well.

you are a fraud.



CanadaCup PM CanadaCup
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Posted: 10/17/2012 5:05:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Note, Obama is polling 11% points below where GW Bush was at this point in 2004.

Link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Also note, National Journal poll has WI tied.

Link: http://nationaljournal.com/politics/poll-race-tied-in-wisconsin-20121017

Obama has pulled out of NC. So Indiana & NC are off the map for Obama as the voting begins.

Obama PAC cancels ad buy in Florida. Obama will cede Florida soon.

PA is within 3%

The candidate that wins two of the following three states, Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania will win the presidency November 6th.

Bank on it!

Crusher13 PM Crusher13
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Posted: 10/17/2012 5:30:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

And in other news..

Unleaded gas is 3.65 locally, the Yankees are down 3-0 in their series and the Broncos had a huge comeback win against the Chargers.

What does a narrow poll like you are posting about have to do with the larger election exactly?


Wall   I sense you are suffering from a case of "denial" 


Look at the facts presented by 14. Florida ads pulled, NC and Indiana possibly "white flag" too BOH  #'s are faltering much  lower everyday by it's own campaign's admission by not ADVERTISING


Finally, we are seeing the light at the end of that fricken tunnel  Thank GOD and Bless America

ilsp2003 PM ilsp2003
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Posted: 10/17/2012 7:49:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AustinHoopDream:

why does your headline 51-46 differ from what the actual poll says which is 50-46?

perhaps so you could introduce this garbage :

"In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate has ever been over 50 percent in mid-October and gone on to lose."

yes i am certain it was an HONEST  mistake.


and why dont you include what the poll says about itself :

"While Romney's four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant"

yes i am certain that was an honest  mistake as well.

you are a fraud.







sadly he is not alone
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 10/17/2012 7:51:37 PM
Crusher,

So..and any one of us can find other polls that say Obama is winning.

I dont get some of the posts people make here, intentionally trying to be combative with little other purpose.
sandrew PM sandrew
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Posted: 10/18/2012 4:19:16 AM
Watch the internals of the polls.  Many of the polls with Obama winning are weighted with a democrat +9 or more sample.  Unlikely that will be the turnout this election.
Cool_Arrow PM Cool_Arrow
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Posted: 10/18/2012 7:39:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crusher13:



 Florida ads pulled, NC and Indiana possibly "white flag" too

You do realize that Obama can easily get 270 electoral votes without those 3 states right? He won with over 350 electoral votes in 2008. Also he hasn't pulled any Florida ads. 
esplanade PM esplanade
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:01:28 AM
obama sycophants in full retreat and deny mode. The emperor has no clothes and is finally getting called on his indecentcy.
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:12:16 AM

why does your headline 51-46 differ from what the actual poll says which is 50-46

I provided the link, the fact that you can't see the clearly marked "LIKELY VOTERS" box on the right side of the Web page saying clearly & unambiguously 51-46 is user error.

Which wouldn't be my issue to resolve.

 

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:13:02 AM
LIKELY VOTERS
CHANGE
Romney
51%
+1
Obama
45%
-1
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:21:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cool_Arrow:


You do realize that Obama can easily get 270 electoral votes without those 3 states right? He won with over 350 electoral votes in 2008. Also he hasn't pulled any Florida ads. 

An Obama PAC has pulled an ad buy in Florida.

From National Journal

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama's position in North Carolina Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Coloradobut not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama's leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

==========

Obama has absolutely zero chance of getting 300 electoral votes.

None.

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:25:16 AM
What does a narrow poll like you are posting about have to do with the larger election exactly?
 
 
It is quite clear that the election is moving in Romney's favor.
 
In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate has ever been over 50 percent in mid-October and gone on to lose.
Gallup has been in business for over 75 years.
 
But I think we should worry about Pinnacle odds, Intrade, and such.
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:45:36 AM

@chucktodd Yesterday: Obama campaign added Minnesota to their radio buy. Today, campaign announces Jill Biden will campaign there this week.

Obama is defending Minnesota.

Cool_Arrow PM Cool_Arrow
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Posted: 10/18/2012 8:47:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

An Obama PAC has pulled an ad buy in Florida.

From National Journal

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama's position in North Carolina Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Coloradobut not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama's leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

==========

Obama has absolutely zero chance of getting 300 electoral votes.

None.


I'm really glad that there are people as gullible as you 14. I'm going to make solid money from my Obama bets since people like you don't think he has a chance. Obama has not stopped Florida ad buys:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/17/romney-campaign-makes-major-swing-state-ad-buy/

His campaign just bought $4.8M worth of ads in Florida. Also you need 270 electoral votes to win not 300. What is your point about 300 electoral votes? If Obama won 270 electoral votes he wins.
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 9:38:00 AM

 Obama has not stopped Florida ad buys:

I never said he did. I said an Obama Pac did.

What is your point about 300 electoral votes?

-That Obama is starting the vote counting at a big decline from 2008.

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 10/18/2012 9:45:19 AM

Today's poll reweights.


O+0.42% - Current RCP Average
O+0.81% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.94% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.14% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.20% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.88% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

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