Presidential Wagering

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Author: [Politics] Topic: Presidential Wagering
be easy PM be easy
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be easy
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Posted: 8/29/2012 5:50:38 PM
-181 right now

i agree, it's free money


Stiln PM Stiln
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Posted: 8/29/2012 5:55:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:



I believe that you're probably too stretched out and mentally limited to take anything seriously.


Hey jackass,

1. Obama is not Muslim
2. If he was Muslim that would have no business being put into any sentence of this presidential wagering thread as would any candidates religion

But because you are a prejudice darn and the rest of this forum stands idly by watching it happen you have no problem continuing to spout your horse garbage all over the place.

Last time I checked the group doesn't accept jewish membership.. you intolerant piece of garbage.
jinvegas PM jinvegas
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Nevada
 
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Posted: 8/29/2012 6:27:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stiln:



Hey jackass,

1. Obama is not Muslim
2. If he was Muslim that would have no business being put into any sentence of this presidential wagering thread as would any candidates religion

But because you are a prejudice darn and the rest of this forum stands idly by watching it happen you have no problem continuing to spout your horse garbage all over the place.

Last time I checked the group doesn't accept jewish membership.. you intolerant piece of garbage.


i wonder if you held the same standard of religious tolerance when romney has been slammed for being mormom bu the left????
Stiln PM Stiln
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Posted: 8/29/2012 6:55:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jinvegas:



i wonder if you held the same standard of religious tolerance when romney has been slammed for being mormom bu the left????


STEVESHANE!!!!!!!!

Thought you died bro.

I wonder if you suffer from ADD though because this has nothing do with romney or even mormonism you idiot..... Stay on task.. But to entertain your question,I would oppose anyone discriminating against anyone's religion.
TheGoldenGoose PM TheGoldenGoose
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Posted: 8/29/2012 7:45:12 PM

betislands holding me hostage at -200.

I too think this is free money.

But I'm waiting until after the debates and will unload in November.
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 8/29/2012 7:50:41 PM

These comments are mind boggling.

There isn't a single indicator showing Obama will win.

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Virginia
 
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Posted: 8/29/2012 7:55:50 PM
Romney had a 43-percent favorable and 44-percent unfavorable rating in nine battleground states heading into the convention, according to an average compiled by Real Clear Politics.

A survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research in nine battle ground states Tuesday evening found Romney’s favorable rating among likely voters had jumped to 48 percent. His unfavorable rating dipped to 39.

 (-200)

Stiln PM Stiln
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Maryland
 
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Posted: 8/29/2012 8:10:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Romney had a 43-percent favorable and 44-percent unfavorable rating in nine battleground states heading into the convention, according to an average compiled by Real Clear Politics.

A survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research in nine battle ground states Tuesday evening found Romney’s favorable rating among likely voters had jumped to 48 percent. His unfavorable rating dipped to 39.

 (-200)



                                       

I'll go ahead and bookmark this thread so that when Obama does win I can come back and post as many smiley faces as I like             

14daroad--rmoneysupporter

       
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 8/29/2012 9:09:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Romney had a 43-percent favorable and 44-percent unfavorable rating in nine battleground states heading into the convention, according to an average compiled by Real Clear Politics.

A survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research in nine battle ground states Tuesday evening found Romney’s favorable rating among likely voters had jumped to 48 percent. His unfavorable rating dipped to 39.

 (-200)


You should also disclose that Wilson Perkins Allen(WPA) is a paid Republican polling firm. One of its 3 partners writes a blog for redstate.com.
Also, its statistical sample was small: 303 people over 9 states with a margin of error of 5.7%(not a good margin for a polling firm). An average of about 34 likely voters were called in each state.
It would also be helpful to know if there was any bias in the selection of participants or was randomness utilized. WPA does not reveal how it chooses its participants, other than stating "likely voters". Since it's a Republican firm, it's appropriate to question whether some selection bias was involved. 

Overall, purely from a mathematical/statistics standpoint, it's not nearly as strong a poll as most others, simply because of its small sample size. A 1000 person poll(similar to most Gallup polls) is more accurate, by reducing the margin of error to 3% or less. Certainly a significant reduction, as all bettors can appreciate. 

Bottom line, a larger sample size would have yielded more reliable results and significantly less margin for error. From this WPA poll, I am left with little to interpret that is of statistical value.


Rush51 PM Rush51
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California
 
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Posted: 8/29/2012 9:19:01 PM
I don't think there's any disputing that Romney has gained ground on O'bama since he nominated Ryan for VP.

He seems to have lit a fire under the behind of Romney.     Whatever it takes to get to 270.
dimedimenickel PM dimedimenickel
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Posted: 8/29/2012 10:08:24 PM
Whats up Kapono for 3,

  I don't think this is worth one of those biggest wagers of life.  First off, got to realize what you read everyday and where you live might effect how you think this election will turn out.  California has been a blue state since Reagan I think.   could run on the democrat ticket and I swear California would still vote blue.  I grew up in Wyoming and lived there for 20 years.  In the world I lived in, 80% of people were republicans and "gun control" was how you held your weapon on a rifle range. 

I think at the least you are paying up for Obama at -190...Odds look much closer to 50/50 then 65% if you look at historical voting patterns in each state.  Also keep in mind the 18-26 year olds last time around voted for "change" and "i can't believe i can be a part of history by voting in a non WASP president."  Honestly, that is what brought out that base.  I think in 2012, you'll see 25% of those from 4 years ago are now unemployed and his/her views my be different.  At the very least, I have a hard time seeing the turnout being as high in that age group.  

It seems like a POY type bet might be when the odds are in your favor, not against you.  My personal opinion is fair market value is -130 or so for obama.  Not -190.  Best of luck with your bet either way.  Glad you made it thru your year off.  And I can't wait to see your NCAAB picks in a few months.    On a side note, I'll be at the bar with KGC tomorrow for NFL fantasy and college kickoff.  

If you still decide to go with your bet i would wait until after a few of the debates.  I could see Romney and Ryan gaining some momentum then.  
Rush51 PM Rush51
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California
 
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Posted: 8/29/2012 10:24:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimedimenickel:

Whats up Kapono for 3,

  I don't think this is worth one of those biggest wagers of life.  First off, got to realize what you read everyday and where you live might effect how you think this election will turn out.  California has been a blue state since Reagan I think.   could run on the democrat ticket and I swear California would still vote blue.  I grew up in Wyoming and lived there for 20 years.  In the world I lived in, 80% of people were republicans and "gun control" was how you held your weapon on a rifle range. 

I think at the least you are paying up for Obama at -190...Odds look much closer to 50/50 then 65% if you look at historical voting patterns in each state.  Also keep in mind the 18-26 year olds last time around voted for "change" and "i can't believe i can be a part of history by voting in a non WASP president."  Honestly, that is what brought out that base.  I think in 2012, you'll see 25% of those from 4 years ago are now unemployed and his/her views my be different.  At the very least, I have a hard time seeing the turnout being as high in that age group.  

It seems like a POY type bet might be when the odds are in your favor, not against you.  My personal opinion is fair market value is -130 or so for obama.  Not -190.  Best of luck with your bet either way.  Glad you made it thru your year off.  And I can't wait to see your NCAAB picks in a few months.    On a side note, I'll be at the bar with KGC tomorrow for NFL fantasy and college kickoff.  

If you still decide to go with your bet i would wait until after a few of the debates.  I could see Romney and Ryan gaining some momentum then.  


I think you hit it on the head here... Voting Polls are one thing... Voter Interest is quite another...
wizardofroz PM wizardofroz
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Kentucky
 
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Posted: 8/30/2012 2:17:26 AM

Heritage Sports:

Democratic Party: -225/+160

dl36 PM dl36
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United States
 
dl36
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Posted: 8/30/2012 3:21:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rush51:

I don't think there's any disputing that Romney has gained ground on O'bama since he nominated Ryan for VP.

He seems to have lit a fire under the behind of Romney.     Whatever it takes to get to 270.

why is it that ryan is such a loser?
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Virginia
 
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Posted: 8/30/2012 8:28:40 AM

Heritage Sports:

That line is insane. If you're taking Obama at -225 you are nuts.

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