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[Politics] Topic: PURPLE POLL: Romney-Ryan Lead in FL, OH, VA |
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14daroad |
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#51 Posted: 8/19/2012 11:41:53 AM  Do you actually believe the coal miners were not a prop ?
That's right! Romney paid them!
What coal miner would vote for a big corporate repulsican
Um, the kind that wants their job. In case you missed it, the Obama Administration has declared a war on coal.
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ClubDirt |
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#52 Posted: 8/19/2012 7:57:19 PM
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Hirschfelder |
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#53 Posted: 8/19/2012 9:22:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow: {{{{Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis}}}}
Oh absolutely. I was merely saying that if Joe Gamblers were betting solely based on the polls and the polls favored Obama, that would impact the line.
I cannot imagine at this early stage, however, that small money is impacting the lines. Your thoughts?
Limits are solid at the moment, so it will take a good bet to move a line. Pinnacle limits are twice the size of NFL pre-season, so its not peanuts thats pushing it
a poll will tell you who somebody wants to win, the gambling market will tell you who they think they will win. Make somebody accountable for who they think will win (ie money) and then watch what decision they make.
I hope the A's win the world Series, but I'm not putting money on it to happen. Who I support and hope win is a different beast to who I will put my money on to win. Some others here need to realise that. Pollsters can't even get exit polling right. There is no "margin of error" or "sample size" in betting markets, and my education and experience have taught me they are flawed bullshit anyway, despite what some people learn in a semester course at college
I had the number in front of me last week and I think it was something like 98% of favourites in betting markets have won legit, major elections worldwide in the last decade. You will find little square money this far out in politics betting. Squares will bet closer to the election, when they don't have to tie their money up for long and get a quick return (espeically tieing up money during football season).
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race and people I respect have it nearly the same, so there is still value in Dems today
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ClubDirt |
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#54 Posted: 8/19/2012 9:28:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race and people I respect have it nearly the same, so there is still value in Dems today
a lot of people must agree because the odds get 10 cents higher every time i check it and i check it at least once a week.
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mellow_wolf |
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#55 Posted: 8/19/2012 9:37:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:
Limits are solid at the moment, so it will take a good bet to move a line. Pinnacle limits are twice the size of NFL pre-season, so its not peanuts thats pushing it
a poll will tell you who somebody wants to win, the gambling market will tell you who they think they will win. Make somebody accountable for who they think will win (ie money) and then watch what decision they make.
I hope the A's win the world Series, but I'm not putting money on it to happen. Who I support and hope win is a different beast to who I will put my money on to win. Some others here need to realise that. Pollsters can't even get exit polling right. There is no "margin of error" or "sample size" in betting markets, and my education and experience have taught me they are flawed bullshit anyway, despite what some people learn in a semester course at college
I had the number in front of me last week and I think it was something like 98% of favourites in betting markets have won legit, major elections worldwide in the last decade. You will find little square money this far out in politics betting. Squares will bet closer to the election, when they don't have to tie their money up for long and get a quick return (espeically tieing up money during football season).
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race and people I respect have it nearly the same, so there is still value in Dems today
Excellent post.
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esplanade |
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#56 Posted: 8/19/2012 10:27:26 PM
Try 60/40 on the outside
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#57 Posted: 8/19/2012 10:33:39 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade: 70/30 obama Try 60/40 on the outside
give me that price obama. Put your money where your big mouth is
be the man you claim to be
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esplanade |
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#58 Posted: 8/19/2012 11:18:16 PM
Somehow I sense you're not betting real money anyway, am I right?? Yup.
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dl36 |
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#59 Posted: 8/19/2012 11:40:40 PM 
I would think that after being humiliated in the box with trying to "bail out" slim that you wouldnt be trying to doing your "bailout"s here...
but I guess you cant change what you really are
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esplanade |
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#60 Posted: 8/19/2012 11:49:03 PM
First, that bet which is not what I have is an easy winner. Your bet on the other hand may or may not win. Got that. Pretty straight forward.
I would think that if anyone should be embarrassed it would be you;
you appear to be nothing more than a tag-along brown nosing repetitive fool. Six icons in three lines of text is also symptomatic of how foolish you are. As someone else said (and I'll take their word for it), you post at all hours of all days, what a dismal life you must lead.
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wallstreetcappers |
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#61 Posted: 8/19/2012 11:53:08 PM
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esplanade |
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#62 Posted: 8/20/2012 1:26:44 AM
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Hirschfelder |
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#63 Posted: 8/20/2012 2:18:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade: Wait how about you dish out the +225 and be the man you claim to be. Funny how that works, isn't it?? Typical dumbocrat maneuver though. Withholding records and documents for years and then expecting the opposition to yield to your whim. Somehow I sense you're not betting real money anyway, am I right?? Yup.
Feel free to tee up your +150, just let me know how much
If you can't do that then the midpoint of my -225 and your +150, which is basically pick.
willing to give me pick?
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dl36 |
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#64 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:58:29 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade: I agree Wall. Coming into a thread totally out of nowhere and attacking based on another thread is unacceptable, especially when it is icon based repetitive drivel. Conversely a response to that scurrilous attack is expected, obviously.
went over your head... he was talking about you....
I neither attacked nor insulted you....
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14daroad |
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#65 Posted: 8/20/2012 8:01:35 AM Note the descrepancy here:
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Then:
Pollsters can't even get exit polling right. There is no "margin of error" or "sample size" in betting markets, and my education and experience have taught me they are flawed bullshit anyway,
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14daroad |
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#66 Posted: 8/20/2012 8:06:56 AM a poll will tell you who somebody wants to win, the gambling market will tell you who they think they will win. Make somebody accountable for who they think will win (ie money) and then watch what decision they make.
So? This presumes the people betting know what they are doing.
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Really? You're not a linesmaker and what would you base this on? Remember, you don't look at polls.
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canovsp |
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#67 Posted: 8/20/2012 10:00:41 AM According to the line more money is going to Obama than Romney. Are the gamblers that are putting money on the election putting it on Obama because they think he will win or because they want him to win? I don't get the impression anyone who frequents the Politics Forum has laid a bet on this. If you have put money on the election, or if you know someone who has, can you share with us how the decision was made?
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canovsp |
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#68 Posted: 8/20/2012 10:09:47 AM If polls aren't used then how does one gauge their bet? Real Clear Politics is the best site in my opinion because they don't actually do the polling but take the avg of all polls conducted. They list all of the states that are going to Romney and all of the states that are going to Obama. Then there are the ones that are too close to call. In all of those toss up states they can go either way. This isn't just based on Rasmussen but on all polls conducted. Every toss up state went to Obama in 08. It is going to be a net gain for Romney. If he gains enough to take the White House remains to be seen.
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ClubDirt |
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#69 Posted: 8/20/2012 10:45:27 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by canovsp: According to the line more money is going to Obama than Romney. Are the gamblers that are putting money on the election putting it on Obama because they think he will win or because they want him to win? I don't get the impression anyone who frequents the Politics Forum has laid a bet on this. If you have put money on the election, or if you know someone who has, can you share with us how the decision was made?
i haven't put money on it and i won't. i'm sure there are some people who are betting on who they want but i doubt those bets are enough to love the odds as much as they have moved in favor of obama just like i assume the line doesn't move on nfl sunday much, if at all, on pinnacle based on people betting their favorites teams as opposed to who they objectively think will win.cover. it just seems to be too much money to be obama lovers. plus, the casual US bettor who bets stupidly doesn't have a pinnacle account at this point.
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canovsp |
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#70 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:02:23 AM |
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ClubDirt |
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#71 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:11:28 AM
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esplanade |
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#72 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:15:01 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:
Feel free to tee up your +150, just let me know how much
If you can't do that then the midpoint of my -225 and your +150, which is basically pick.
willing to give me pick?
 Really??
You broached the subject by saying that you have the odds @ +225. I guess that was just pure bluster, right??
Time to put up or slink away.
By the way, if Romney is available at a book in excess of +150, why would I or anyone offer you that price?? (Even discounting the fact that you don't pay).
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#73 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:17:52 AM
not nearly as amazed as i am to see ol dl36 back to his same old tricks of posting the same bullshit over and over and over again, in every thread, never having anything to do with the thread, rather just going after the guys that he wants to circle jerk with, and still not getting boxed for it. 
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esplanade |
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#74 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:22:27 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36: went over your head... he was talking about you.... I neither attacked nor insulted you....
Now I need to explain the word 'facetious' to you?? #62 was a bit facetious but you gulped on it like a beached whale, as I knew you would. You are the one with an ongoing history of whining to the mods. #59 was nothing but disconnected provocation. You are over your skis, I'll anticipate another effort to bail yourself out........
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14daroad |
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#75 Posted: 8/20/2012 11:33:10 AM clubdirt,
the question is, why is Pinnacle moving the line if bettors aren't reacting to polls? |
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