| Author: |
[Politics] Topic: PURPLE POLL: Romney-Ryan Lead in FL, OH, VA |
|
14daroad |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#1 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:14:44 PM Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the
campaigns over the last few months.
Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points
(46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%.
|
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#2 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:15:35 PM
|
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#3 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:20:29 PM |
|
quote |
|
ClubDirt |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
MVP
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16904
Location: United States |
#4 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:21:15 PM
|
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#5 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:21:26 PM For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters. Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds. "This is the first time I am seeing Romney's numbers this high among 18-29 year olds," said Zogby. "This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get." |
|
quote |
|
|
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#6 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:22:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
you're going to make a fortune if these polls you cite are any good. obama is up to -185 at pinnacle. it was -162 a couple of weeks ago and mid -170'2 a few days ago. it goes up 10 cents a week.
Clubdirt,
The people betting at Pinnacle are betting on an election based on polls they do not understand and one in which they won't take place.
The Pinnacle odds & betting are irrelevant to me. |
|
quote |
|
ClubDirt |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
MVP
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16904
Location: United States |
#7 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:28:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:
Clubdirt,
The people betting at Pinnacle are betting on an election based on polls they do not understand and one in which they won't take place.
The Pinnacle odds & betting are irrelevant to me.
i don't know what the people betting at pinnacle are thinking. what i do know is that when i want to get a read on anything gambling related based on the odds, i go to pinnacle first.
but if pinnacle is wrong and these polls are right, there's a lot of money to be made on romney because +170 or so for the favorite, or at least the alleged better side, is pretty good, i would think.
|
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#8 Posted: 8/15/2012 5:30:22 PM
I think these polls are going to move all around. I wouldn't bet on this election before October.
|
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#9 Posted: 8/15/2012 7:39:28 PM DAVENPORT, Iowa — Ross Murty, the co-owner of the Village Corner Deli
in Davenport, is a proud small-business owner who isn’t afraid to speak
his mind.
Serving up pulled pork, beans and cheesy potatoes for the press at
the president’s campaign event this evening, Murty wore a T-shirt that
said, “Government Didn’t Build my Business, I Did.”
|
|
quote |
|
thirdperson |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 1018
Location: |
#10 Posted: 8/15/2012 8:47:31 PM |
|
quote |
|
cd329 |
RSI  |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 18030
Location: United States |
#11 Posted: 8/15/2012 10:09:41 PM 14 da road doesnt know anything about sportsbooks and how good they are at making odds on anything. The guy doesnt bet.
You can bet the odds at the books are way better then daroads poll numbers |
|
quote |
|
cd329 |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 18030
Location: United States |
#12 Posted: 8/15/2012 10:20:38 PM Bookmaker has Obama at -201
Daroad, if you are so sure that the polls are right and romney is gonna win, then you should be backing up the truck and taking the huge plus money with romney.
I know if i was so sure about a bet, i would be making a huge wager.
|
|
quote |
|
cd329 |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 18030
Location: United States |
#13 Posted: 8/15/2012 10:22:30 PM I guess you right wingers forgot how McCains poll numbers shot up when palin was picked and then went downhill after the intial excitement wore off.
How did that jump in numbers work out for McCain |
|
quote |
|
djbrow |
RSI  |
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 11890
Location: United States |
#14 Posted: 8/15/2012 10:27:07 PM I have said it to being blue in the face. If you guys want to listen, so be it.
Obama will be no more than -135 or so following the GOP convention. If you want Obama, wait till then. If you want Romney, want DONT till then.
After the convention, I will be 'selling' my $200 of Romney +2100 from two years ago for a good chunk of Obama.  |
|
quote |
|
Ktrain |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 5352
Location: California |
#15 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:28:04 AM
If a poll is in Romney's favor or moving in Romney's favor then it is a credible and validated poll.....no matter how it was conducted.
If the poll shows the opposite then it is not.
Most of these polls seem to be conducted via telephone to home land lines and are generally no more than 1000-1500 people. They are supposed to be random but how many people under 30 have home land lines these days? I'm 30 and I don't know of anyone that has one.
Here is how the polling is conducted in the link he provided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology |
|
quote |
|
Ktrain |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 5352
Location: California |
#16 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:31:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by thirdperson:
The only poll that really counts is the election. Don't trust polls. According to University of B.C. study, polls are less reliable than odds at sportbooks in accurately predicting future results. The reason is uncaring poll respondents have nothing to lose, but gamblers (who risk money) are more serious about being accurate.
I have to think that more than 1147 people have put money on this election. I don't trust polls either. Way to small of a sample size. |
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#17 Posted: 8/16/2012 8:08:40 AM 14 da road doesnt know anything about sportsbooks and how good they are at making odds on anything. The guy doesnt bet.
You can bet the odds at the books are way better then daroads poll numbers
That's right!
Because favorites always win, right? I mean, it worked out so swell in the SuperBowl.
Hey, how did the -125 Phillies do yesterday?
OOPS |
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#18 Posted: 8/16/2012 8:10:04 AM Ktrain,
Polling via phone is standard methodology.
The instances I criticize polls are when they over sample Democrats. The PPP poll isn't open to that criticism. |
|
quote |
|
cd329 |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 18030
Location: United States |
#19 Posted: 8/16/2012 8:42:05 AM lmfaoooooooooooo why arent you taking that huge plus money on romney right now daroad if your so sure hes gonna win?
odds certainly arent going to go up on obama, with all these polls favoring romney.
go bet some money, oh thats right you dont bet |
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#20 Posted: 8/16/2012 8:52:52 AM Former Obama Campaign Chair stumps for Romney.
Gee, I wonder why some are bitterly clinging to the polls that over sample Democrats showing Obama "in the lead"?
|
|
quote |
|
Mikael99 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 27947
Location: Denmark |
#21 Posted: 8/16/2012 9:38:29 AM |
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#22 Posted: 8/16/2012 9:40:37 AM  It doesn't count; it is a scam
Fact you don't like = scam
|
|
quote |
|
canovsp |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3040
Location: United States |
#23 Posted: 8/16/2012 9:53:42 AM
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or What the linesmakers think will happen? or Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or What the polls say? or Is there something else? |
|
quote |
|
14daroad |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 7740
Location: Virginia |
#24 Posted: 8/16/2012 10:02:41 AM Purple Strategies is a newly formed poll organization
From PPP a Democratic Polling firm:
GOP leads generic Congressional ballot in Ohio 45-41, thanks to 38-26 lead with independents
From PPP a Democratic Polling Firm
Our last 5 weekly national polls: Obama +2, Obama +2, Obama +1, Tie, Obama +2.
From PPP a Democratic Polling Firm
Obama leads Romney 48-45 in Ohio. Unchanged from 3 point lead on our last poll in late June
|
|
quote |
|
djbrow |
RSI |
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 11890
Location: United States |
#25 Posted: 8/16/2012 11:52:56 AM
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line. |
|
quote |