Obama is a log.....

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Author: [Politics] Topic: Obama is a log.....
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/21/2012 3:43:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrontRowCenter:


Most Americans I know do not want this country turning into Greece.   


you should talk with bowlist...
Colts03 PM Colts03
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Posted: 2/21/2012 4:43:17 PM
I like you Van, but I hope you lose this bet 

Ron Paul 
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/27/2012 5:53:00 AM
paul is my first choice
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/27/2012 9:27:47 AM

Oh gee, a Democrat is saying Obama is a "lock" and his bet has "value"!

*GIGGLE*

In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely to determine the outcome of a close race in November:

•Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.

================

You're better off lighting $20 bills on fire than listening to this poster and betting Obama's "value."

Jersey973 PM Jersey973
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Posted: 2/27/2012 1:23:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

Van van van. There will be a few days where the line will be -140/-160 Obama.....August 31-September 2, 2012.

It will be at that time that I 'sell' my Romney futures of +2100 from two years ago for value.

Do you remember 2008...as we were still getting Obama -175 the night before the election. A pretty profit as I remember. God bless right wingers and their parent's credit cards

And this will be the first gambling election without matchbook, which does play a little into how I bet this year.

If only leftys had credit cards and didn't beg and riot on the streets for other people's money....

bowlslit PM bowlslit
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Posted: 2/27/2012 1:30:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrontRowCenter:


Most Americans I know do not want this country turning into Greece.   

Actually, not quite half give lip service to not wanting Greece but have little objection to the things that got Greece in trouble such as:

Unreasonably high pensions.

Unreasonable entitlements and other costly government programs.

Ureasonably high union wages.

Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 2/27/2012 4:42:53 PM
So from what I take from the poll that 14 posted is that they polled an average of about 100 people per state in the swing states. Am I reading that correctly?

I love polls where 1000 people's opinions are supposed to indicative of an entire states voting direction. Let alone 1000 spread out over potentially 12 states.

Also, what were the age, gender, income, race, etc of the people polled. I'm pretty sure I could take a "random poll" of a thousand people and come up with a voting average of 75% for obama if I really wanted to.

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Crusher13 PM Crusher13
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Posted: 2/27/2012 5:34:54 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by 14daroad]

Oh gee, a Democrat is saying Obama is a "lock" and his bet has "value"!

*GIGGLE*

In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely to determine the outcome of a close race in November:

•Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.

================

You're better off lighting $20 bills on fire than listening to this poster and betting Obama's "value."

   Thank you LORD for a 14 da ROAD sighting.

We NEED your voice NOW more than ever if we are to SAVE our FREEDOM AND LIBERTIES to our childeren AND GRANDCHILDREN from this soft tyranny.

I'll take ROMNEY @+260 and ANY GOP candidate OVER the VERY WORST PRESIDENT of all TIME in this great REPUBLIC'S HISTORY

Now is the time to EDUCATE the foolish. easily misled sheep
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/27/2012 6:21:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Oh gee, a Democrat is saying Obama is a "lock" and his bet has "value"!

*GIGGLE*

In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely to determine the outcome of a close race in November:

•Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.

================

You're better off lighting $20 bills on fire than listening to this poster and betting Obama's "value."



Vanzack is not a partisan lemming

He is a gambler playing the odds for what it is worth... perhaps if you were a part of the gambling community on this site you would know that...

you seem more like a just another partisan alias to cut/paste crap littering the forum with biased propaganda...
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/27/2012 6:21:44 PM
Ktrain,
polling is a science and there is a methodology to it.

I did enjoy this part:

The intensity of feeling among potential swing voters also favors opponents. Among independents who lean to the GOP, 54% say they are much less likely to support Obama as a result. Among independents who lean to the Democrats, 18% say they are much more likely to support him.
================='

Keep betting vanzack!!! -200 is a steal!
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/27/2012 6:22:29 PM
Vanzack is not a partisan lemming

===============

Yes, yes he is.

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/27/2012 6:22:51 PM
Crusher13.
Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 2/27/2012 7:53:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Ktrain,
polling is a science and there is a methodology to it.

I did enjoy this part:

The intensity of feeling among potential swing voters also favors opponents. Among independents who lean to the GOP, 54% say they are much less likely to support Obama as a result. Among independents who lean to the Democrats, 18% say they are much more likely to support him.
================='

Keep betting vanzack!!! -200 is a steal!

While I do not doubt there is a methodology to this process. I'm not exactly sure I would call it a science.  

"In the case of Gallup polls that track the election and the major political, social and economic 
questions of the day, the target audience is generally referred to as "national adults." Strictly 
speaking the target audience is all adults, aged 18 and over, living in telephone households 
within the continental United States. In effect, it is the civilian, non-institutionalized 
population. College students living on campus, armed forces personnel living on military 
bases, prisoners, hospital patients and others living in group institutions are not represented 
in Gallup's "sampling frame." Clearly these exclusions represent some diminishment in the 
coverage of the population, but because of the practical difficulties involved in attempting to 
reach the institutionalized population, it is a compromise Gallup usually needs to make."

http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf

Sorry to be the cut and paste guy. I don't know if this is how they still "randomly" choose numbers since this is dated(1997). I am curious to find out if this is still the process or are they reaching people by cell phone. I take polls like this with a grain of salt. 

Not necessarily saying that it ISN'T accurate. However, if it is still the process they use then they are not reaching a lot of people, like college students and military, that would most likely be voting Obama or even Ron Paul for that matter. 

I know this thread is about Obama's re-election odds but I think Ron Paul's growing contingent, especially amongst younger voters is growing and would probably be the best GOP candidate to face off against Obama. I know I am biased in saying that because I want Ron Paul to win but I really think he would steal voters away from Obama more so than Gingrich, Santorum, or Romney. 

Curious to hear thoughts or if anyone has any input as to how these polls are conducted. 
djbrow PM djbrow
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Posted: 2/27/2012 7:56:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Vanzack is not a partisan lemming

===============

Yes, yes he is.

Oh the absolute irony....

jay10 PM jay10
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Posted: 2/28/2012 2:31:17 AM
Stiln PM Stiln
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Posted: 2/28/2012 4:59:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Vanzack is not a partisan lemming

===============

Yes, yes he is.




You're a buffoon. 

How dumb are you?
               

                                                  
depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 2/28/2012 10:54:40 AM
Vanzack, are you playing this at Intrade?
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/29/2012 2:48:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Vanzack is not a partisan lemming

===============

Yes, yes he is.



was this a joke or were you actually serious?
14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/29/2012 8:10:21 AM

dl36,

I'm completely serious. What type of "non partisan" person believes Obama is a lock?

Obama trails Santorum in national polling. Ron Paul polls within 7% of Obama in national polling.

Only a partisan hack with leftist blinders thinks betting 200 to 100 is "value" in this scenario.

 

Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 2/29/2012 1:53:56 PM
I love those "national polls"
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djbrow PM djbrow
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Posted: 2/29/2012 2:07:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

dl36,

I'm completely serious. What type of "non partisan" person believes Obama is a lock?

Obama trails Santorum in national polling. Ron Paul polls within 7% of Obama in national polling.

Only a partisan hack with leftist blinders thinks betting 200 to 100 is "value" in this scenario.

 

The same partisan people who post the opposite, despite the fact that it isn't true.  

Value is a subjective measure depending upon the style of the individual. Someone who looks for plus money sides obviously won't find value.

Someone who doesn't have an issue tying up money based on the perceived outcome and doesn't mind playing high money lines likely won't view it the same.

I disagreed with Van in that the best time to play Obama will be right after the Repub nomination (which will be the same time I 'sell' my Romney futures).

There is money to be made in politics if one can play it without partisanship. Stating that Obama is a lock at -200 from the perception of the poster is hardly indicative of partisanship.

 

14daroad PM 14daroad
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Posted: 2/29/2012 3:05:11 PM

Value is a subjective measure depending upon the style of the individual

========================

Um, ok. Of course this sentence: "You will not see a -200 again that has this much value" doesn't seem to be subjective in light of this one: "it is inconceivable to me that Newt or Mitt can beat him"

Which proves my point.

 

djbrow PM djbrow
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Posted: 2/29/2012 3:29:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Value is a subjective measure depending upon the style of the individual

========================

Um, ok. Of course this sentence: "You will not see a -200 again that has this much value" doesn't seem to be subjective in light of this one: "it is inconceivable to me that Newt or Mitt can beat him"

Which proves my point.

 

Both statements are subjective. It hardly means one has a predisposed mindset for one side.

Nightly, I think one team has great value or another and it doesn't mean that I inherently favor one side over the other.

SarasotaSlim PM SarasotaSlim
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Posted: 2/29/2012 8:08:23 PM

Vanzack,

If you are a trend better here's one,that you probably won't like.. and it's a 90%'er ...

In the history of US Presidential elections ..10 United States Presidents have unseated an incumbent President.. . 

Since 1828... 9 of those 10 US Presidents have come to office by unseating an incumbent in a Leap Year election ...With the exception being Thomas Jefferson who unseating John Adams ( in 1800 a non-leap year)....
 
 
This being Wednesday Februrary 29th.2012 .....making this election.. a Leap Year election...
 
Bend to the Trend...
drJ PM drJ
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Posted: 2/29/2012 8:17:41 PM
If Eric Holder is prosecuted then Romney beats Obama.  If not then its another four years of the worst human ever to occupy the office.

The odds Holder is prosecuted are about 5/1 and therefore the 2/1 bet seems OK. I think this election is a no brainer unless barry gets in legal hot water.  

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