Posted: 2/27/2012 7:53:57 PM
Originally Posted by 14daroad
polling is a science and there is a methodology to it.
I did enjoy this part:
The intensity of feeling among potential swing voters also favors opponents. Among independents who lean to the GOP, 54% say they are much less likely to support Obama as a result. Among independents who lean to the Democrats, 18% say they are much more likely to support him.
Keep betting vanzack!!! -200 is a steal!
While I do not doubt there is a methodology to this process. I'm not exactly sure I would call it a science.
"In the case of Gallup polls that track the election and the major political, social and economic
questions of the day, the target audience is generally referred to as "national adults." Strictly
speaking the target audience is all adults, aged 18 and over, living in telephone households
within the continental United States. In effect, it is the civilian, non-institutionalized
population. College students living on campus, armed forces personnel living on military
bases, prisoners, hospital patients and others living in group institutions are not represented
in Gallup's "sampling frame." Clearly these exclusions represent some diminishment in the
coverage of the population, but because of the practical difficulties involved in attempting to
reach the institutionalized population, it is a compromise Gallup usually needs to make."
Sorry to be the cut and paste guy. I don't know if this is how they still "randomly" choose numbers since this is dated(1997). I am curious to find out if this is still the process or are they reaching people by cell phone. I take polls like this with a grain of salt.
Not necessarily saying that it ISN'T accurate. However, if it is still the process they use then they are not reaching a lot of people, like college students and military, that would most likely be voting Obama or even Ron Paul for that matter.
I know this thread is about Obama's re-election odds but I think Ron Paul's growing contingent, especially amongst younger voters is growing and would probably be the best GOP candidate to face off against Obama. I know I am biased in saying that because I want Ron Paul to win but I really think he would steal voters away from Obama more so than Gingrich, Santorum, or Romney.
Curious to hear thoughts or if anyone has any input as to how these polls are conducted.