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Author: [Investments] Topic: OK...You get to pick one trade for the next ten years...
Vermeer send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Vermeer
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#1
Posted: 7/18/2010 10:34:53 AM
be it  a parcel of real estate, CDS, CDOs, an ETF, an equity(or equiities fund, and they can be hedge funds, a bond or bond hedge fund, or precious metals (specify which metal and set fix price)....

in play with $250,000 US dollars...be careful there...

Name the speculation and the price paid.Once purchased, no hedging allowed, this is a simple buy it and forget it trade.Robinson Crusoe can't reach his broker for ten years

Additionally, vote on the obvious ancillary question:will BO be re-elected in 2012?

3rd and final element of poll:

 Will Israel/USA attack Iran before the November US elections? Or will Iran attack Israel or the US? If you feel there will be an attack, state when it might commence.



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claycourtlesson send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
claycourtlesson
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#2
Posted: 7/19/2010 9:23:21 PM

Would take 100 grand and buy land, but only on which you could grow food and cultivate materials for clothes.  Spend the rest on shelter, products to store and preserve food,  guns and ammo and warm clothes.

Man, we are so fckued.  Anyone putting money in retirement vehicles needs to tell me where he/she is getting his/her drugs.  Man is too stupid to change.  Nature will have to rigorously do it for him, and it will be brutally ugly for a lot of people.

Hell no, BO won't be re-elected.  Just another behind clown will, instead.  So what does it matter?

Oh yes, definitely.  Iran will attack and nuke Jerusalem, signalling the "formal" beginning of WWIII.  Will happen before 2012.

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#3
Posted: 7/19/2010 9:29:10 PM

Iran will nuke Jerusalem before EOY 2012.

Vermeer, man, you know as well as I how fckued this current world is.  Nothing imaginable could be more unsustainable than this present charade.  Bailout packages and manic printing of fake money just delay the inevitable, which ends up making things worse in the long run.  It truly would be better to just let things go straight to hell right now-----at least we'd be able to start repairing the mess rather than just sweeping a bunch of rubbish under the nearest rug--only to have to be cleaned later.

The only, and I mean ONLY thing positive about the future is that the entire world wide peanut gallery is so negative.  Other than that, nada.

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wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 7/19/2010 10:23:56 PM
CC,

How can you conclude that?

If Iran nukes then the big boys pummel them..does not sound like a smart idea if you ask me.


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Vermeer send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 7/19/2010 11:16:52 PM
I think we will see air strikes against Iran in order to prevent the possibility of what you predict CC.

The Iranian government may very well take the approach that they are going to get hit, so why not strike first Wall....it is a fairly desperate regime, and they may (rightfully or not) simply not feel like waiting on what they might deem an inevitable strike from the Western powers.


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#6
Posted: 7/19/2010 11:18:48 PM
Needless to say, if anything goes down, one way or the other, the stock market will be toast...and that is a major goal of the bin Ladens of the world, economic ruin of the US.
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claycourtlesson send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#7
Posted: 7/20/2010 8:12:18 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Vermeer:

Needless to say, if anything goes down, one way or the other, the stock market will be toast...and that is a major goal of the bin Ladens of the world, economic ruin of the US.

Well written, Vermeer, and this is precisely why Israel is a sitting duck, WSC.

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be easy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
be easy
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#8
Posted: 7/22/2010 7:20:23 PM
one trade and one trade only, cannot touch it until 07/22/20?

Is the purpose to exchange 250k 2010 USD's for the best return in 2020 USD's?  no way RE, you shouldn't even have that in the discussion. RE is hard to quantify because it has a constant (and likely rising) cost associated, not to mention expensive to get in and out of. RE RARELY ever outpaced inflation, so for the life of me i don't know how anyone could argue RE being a solid "investment" over the next decade


You could buy 10 year Treasuries right now @ 2.89%, so that would return you 332k 2020 dollars for your 250k 2010 dollars. massive deflationary deleveraging yet to come, that might be the safest bet, gotta love a capitalist country whose investment strategy is to buy gov debt


For the RE arguements sake, you'd have to keep in mind the transaction costs of entry/exit (state tax, realtwhore fees, title company,,,,,,,,,,) and property taxes, school taxes, insurance. No friggin way does this "investment" not have a negative return

You said ETF, is there such a thing as an ETF buy and hold strategy?? time decay and volatility murders ETF's, they are solely for trading and bilking, a poster used to post about this in here.

Gold is 1191 per oz at time of this post. 250k of 2010 dollars buys you 210 troy oz's of gold, not very much when you think of it. i know what a pile of silver looks like, 200 silver eagles would run you about 3500 dollars today. they sound cheap. hell that 68:1 ratio sounds like it's due for a correction. Is it possible that gold doesn't outpace 10 yr tbills? absolutely, just not likely imo. can gold outpace or at least keep pace with silver over the next decade, i wouldn't bet on it. When currencies enter collapse/catastrophe as the one world currency USD is currently, gold/silver trend to reset towards the estimated physical ratio of the metals on this planet, 18ish:1. Silver has to be cheap, when priced in gold, doesn't it?

over the last decade, gold enjoyed a 300% increase from 300ish to 1200ish.

silver, more like 250% from 5ish to 17.50ish

10 yr treasuries will guarantee you a 33%ish return in 2020

------------------------------

wow, i thought i lost this post, gonna hit submit as an incomplete post, because i was pissed and thought i lost the whole thought last night when the cpu shut off, now magic it pops back on here

will try and pick up where i left off then, but so i don't lose it again, long story short

my one trade would be C, i think it was 3.90 ish when i was going to post this, see it's 4.09 now
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JEFFMARKETCAP
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#9
Posted: 7/23/2010 9:18:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Would take 100 grand and buy land, but only on which you could grow food and cultivate materials for clothes.  Spend the rest on shelter, products to store and preserve food,  guns and ammo and warm clothes.

Man, we are so fckued.  Anyone putting money in retirement vehicles needs to tell me where he/she is getting his/her drugs.  Man is too stupid to change.  Nature will have to rigorously do it for him, and it will be brutally ugly for a lot of people.

Hell no, BO won't be re-elected.  Just another behind clown will, instead.  So what does it matter?

Oh yes, definitely.  Iran will attack and nuke Jerusalem, signalling the "formal" beginning of WWIII.  Will happen before 2012.

my thoughts exactly
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