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Author: [Rugby] Topic: Rod's State of Origin III
rod_steel send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:04:43 AM
NSW +3.5 over QLD



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#2
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:09:30 AM

BOL....

2 things.....

1. QLD havent played well thus far...IMO, they have only played at about 70%..Thurston had a shocker last game and hasnt really played that well...and NSW only won by 4 points last game despite a flukey try (J Morris).

2. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the refs are going to finger the blues...NSW wont win the penalty count, no way. NSW will get MAX 2 oenalties, and they will probably be in the first 20 minutes. They wont get a penalty in the second half. From that they will be behind the 8 ball....

This doesnt mean that QLD wins guaranteed, it just tilts the odds more for QLD....

Still weighing it up, but i think a second half bet is best here.

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#3
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:13:30 AM
I thought you were about to post the conspiracy theory that the refs will be on NSW for the sake of the future of State of Origin as a concept
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#4
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:16:25 AM
You have to lose one to win one. NSW just appear to be in better shape leading into this decider as opposed to last year. Have a decided edge in the forwards and a much more settled look about their side.

I'm not convinced with Inglis' move to fullback - whilst he has been in career best form for the Bunnies there, QLD lose their main strength on the left side as a result of the move. Nielsen is too defensive for my liking.
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#5
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:27:41 AM

[Quote: Originally Posted by rod_steel] You have to lose one to win one. NSW just appear to be in better shape leading into this decider as opposed to last year. Have a decided edge in the forwards and a much more settled look about their side.

I'm not convinced with Inglis' move to fullback - whilst he has been in career best form for the Bunnies there, QLD lose their main strength on the left side as a result of the move. Nielsen is too defensive for my liking.
[/Quote

yeah, fair enough....

I just look at the last game and QLD didnt play well at all...How many clean drop balls did they have?

Morris with a flukey try...

I just dont trust Mitchell Pearce....he simply seems to me at this stage of his career that he preferes to be spending his time banging models than actually playing....

He is the weak link, especially considering that he is the most important position...

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#6
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:30:11 AM
Rod, can Aus lose 3 games in a row?
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#7
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:32:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rostos:

Rod, can Aus lose 3 games in a row?


I'm going to take them on again tomorrow night and find out. Can't believe England are not favs

The balance of this current ODI is out of whack. Bailey is not up to international level and their bowling look ordinary. Lee needs to retire and rushing Mitch into the team without any match practice since his long term injury is a joke
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#8
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:41:40 AM
  crucial the blues get off to a good start, That big crowd will win Queensland a few penalties 

NSW has played better in the first 2 games just hoping this isn't the game thurston and cronk turn it on 
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#9
Posted: 7/3/2012 6:43:03 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rod_steel:



I'm going to take them on again tomorrow night and find out. Can't believe England are not favs

The balance of this current ODI is out of whack. Bailey is not up to international level and their bowling look ordinary. Lee needs to retire and rushing Mitch into the team without any match practice since his long term injury is a joke

Can someone tell me how Hilfy is not there? Especially the swinging conditions in England?

Seems like it is a boys club....Feels like the culture that has been built over the past 15 years, Border to Taylor to Waugh to Punter is being knocked down....

Johnson is not international standard........

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#10
Posted: 7/3/2012 10:12:43 AM
Hey fellas. NSW tomorrow stop the rot!
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#11
Posted: 7/3/2012 8:20:27 PM
Favour QLD here, NSW in game 2 scored 2 tries while Cronk was binned, and when he came back QLD had few serious chances to win the game, not to metion his bomb near the end of 1st half that got QLD the lead, if it wasnt Jennings heroic save the serie would be over.

PS NSW also loses G Steward.. that may eqaulize loss of Slater
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#12
Posted: 7/3/2012 9:08:16 PM
Agree with NSW +points rod. Think it's going to be very close but disagree with your GI statement. GI has been playing better than slater lately so will offer some good attack.

Only problem is with no slater is that it breaks the Smith Slater Cronk combination and with Nielsen as a very defensive centre, there may not be tooooooo many points coming from this team. Just speculating 
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#13
Posted: 7/3/2012 9:42:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phatmaori:

Agree with NSW +points rod. Think it's going to be very close but disagree with your GI statement. GI has been playing better than slater lately so will offer some good attack.

Only problem is with no slater is that it breaks the Smith Slater Cronk combination and with Nielsen as a very defensive centre, there may not be tooooooo many points coming from this team. Just speculating 


One aspect of Slater's game which is far superior to Inglis is the amount of ground he covers when receiving at kick reception. Lot has been said about how poor Carney and Pearce's kicking game have been in terms of not finding space but what is not considered is the fact that Slater makes them look ordinary. I can't recall any kicks where he did not catch it on the full.


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#14
Posted: 7/3/2012 9:47:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lawrence8888:

Favour QLD here, NSW in game 2 scored 2 tries while Cronk was binned, and when he came back QLD had few serious chances to win the game, not to metion his bomb near the end of 1st half that got QLD the lead, if it wasnt Jennings heroic save the serie would be over.

PS NSW also loses G Steward.. that may eqaulize loss of Slater


QLD scored 2 tries in Game 1 when Jennings was binned in the first half. You could argue that was what cost NSW the win


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#15
Posted: 7/3/2012 9:49:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rod_steel:



One aspect of Slater's game which is far superior to Inglis is the amount of ground he covers when receiving at kick reception. Lot has been said about how poor Carney and Pearce's kicking game have been in terms of not finding space but what is not considered is the fact that Slater makes them look ordinary. I can't recall any kicks where he did not catch it on the full.



 His positional play is out of this world, Queensland will miss that
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#16
Posted: 7/3/2012 10:45:36 PM
NSW
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#17
Posted: 7/4/2012 3:56:28 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Lawrence8888:

Favour QLD here, NSW in game 2 scored 2 tries while Cronk was binned, and when he came back QLD had few serious chances to win the game, not to metion his bomb near the end of 1st half that got QLD the lead, if it wasnt Jennings heroic save the serie would be over.

PS NSW also loses G Steward.. that may eqaulize loss of Slater

G Stewart has been quiet in the series. Qld have cut off his time well. Not a big loss IMO.

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#18
Posted: 7/4/2012 8:11:16 AM
NSW +3.5=
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#19
Posted: 7/4/2012 9:09:11 AM
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