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Author: [Rugby] Topic: Queensland Reds - Grand Final Each-Way Bet
HeadOverHeart
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#1
Posted: 3/6/2012 3:30:12 PM
Well well well well wellllllllllllllllllllllll......................

Thinking about jumping in on this wager before Round Three starts and want to see what the respected denizens of this forum reckon.

An each-way bet on the Reds to Make/Win the 2012 Super Rugby Grand Final.  $2.75/$4.50.

The price isn't as competitive as it could be for the win, as most have it at $5.00 right now, but the Make bet is decently-competitive and one must go with the other, hence the 50-cent discount on the Win.

Here's my reasoning:

The Reds should win the Aus Conference.  My Tahs are the only legitimate challenge and I think the Reds pip them out.  Seeing this, and knowing that the Aus Conference is the weakest of the three, the Reds should be able to secure a bye from the qualifying finals and a home semifinal berth against either the #4, #5, or #6 best team in the comp.

At this point, all that is needed to profit from this bet is for the Reds to win this game.  At home.  As the better team.

At $2.75 moneyline odds.   

If, and when, they do......now I have the Reds ML in the Grand Final for $4.50.  Of course, they will not be this long ML when they make the GF.  Hedging possibilities also abound.

I see this wager as a wonderful way to take advantage of the Super Rugby Finals System, which heavily favors the Reds this season, and literally places them a blown kiss away from the Grand Final.

What do you guys think?

Is this also why many books are not offering the To Make the Finals event as a wagering option?

Advice, opinions, and general chit-chat welcome!  Have at it! 
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#2
Posted: 3/6/2012 4:04:29 PM
Take that play man, looks like great value and good chance for a large hedge and win a decent amount
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#3
Posted: 3/6/2012 4:54:04 PM
I still think the Tahs are a pretty good team,wouldn't write them off just yet
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#4
Posted: 3/6/2012 8:24:43 PM
2.75 on them to win the Australian conf (about a 1.70 shot at the moment) into them winning a finals game into them beating the top SA or NZ on the road to make the final

They may look ok now, but they still have to play the sharks, bulls, blues and crusaders on the road
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#5
Posted: 3/6/2012 9:22:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:

2.75 on them to win the Australian conf (about a 1.70 shot at the moment) into them winning a finals game into them beating the top SA or NZ on the road to make the final

They may look ok now, but they still have to play the sharks, bulls, blues and crusaders on the road


If the Reds win the Australia Conference, they will more than likely be one of the top two conferences winners.  This means, they SKIP the qualifying final round and move right into a HOME GAME against one of the survivors from the prior round to play for a Grand Final berth.

So basically, ONE HOME GAME vs. lesser side in order to profit on this bet.

I don't see where you are getting that they will have to beat the top SA or NZ team on the road to make the final.  That is only if they are either the worst of the conference winners or don't win the conference at all.
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#6
Posted: 3/6/2012 9:24:49 PM
The top team of each conference, plus the next top three teams in table points regardless of conference (wild card teams), will move on to the finals

The top two conference winners (most likely Reds here), based on table points, receive first-round byes

In the first round of the finals, the third conference winner is the #3 seed and hosts the wild card team with the worst record, and the best wild card team hosts the second-best wild card team

In the semi-finals, the #2 conference winner hosts the higher surviving seed from the first round, and the #1 conference winner hosts the other first-round winner.  (win this match and profit)

The final is hosted by the top remaining seed.
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#7
Posted: 3/6/2012 9:51:30 PM
While the Reds look solid again this season, the other usualy powerhouses look cracked.

Crusaders, Stormers, Bulls.....all look much more vunerable already than in seasons past.

The Reds resilience against the Tahs, the lack of a letdown the next round versus the Force ------->  All signs of a solid squad that is still hungry for more.

Is there any argument to be had that the Reds are not the solid team they look?  That they won't be one of the favorites come finals time to make the Grand Final?

Throw the thoughts out there boys!!! 
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#8
Posted: 3/6/2012 9:52:16 PM
Remember, the key to this wager is the set-up of the Super Rugby Finals System......
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#9
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:38:46 AM
Terrible bet
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#10
Posted: 3/7/2012 1:29:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Davenz:

Terrible bet


Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd.....why?
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#11
Posted: 3/7/2012 1:59:36 AM
Terrible price relative to the probability.
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#12
Posted: 3/7/2012 2:04:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Davenz:

Terrible price relative to the probability.


Reds are $5.00 to win and $2.50 to make the final at most Aus books.

So I lose a quarter because it's an each-way, not two separate bets.

IAS has the Reds to Make the Final at $1.67.

How is $4.50/$2.75 such a terrible price?  What price should the Reds be do you reckon?
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#13
Posted: 3/7/2012 2:10:50 AM
I cant c the reds winning the comp back to back mate.  
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#14
Posted: 3/7/2012 2:27:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dark-Oracle:

I cant c the reds winning the comp back to back mate.  


Possibly true.  But they don't have to to make this bet a big winner, especially if they make the final and you hedge off by betting their opposition, especially if the opposition is at plus-money.

Keep bouncing your ideas at me guys!  I'm not arguing at or against anyone here, just rebounding ideas bank-and-forth. 

BTW, would have to put this wager in before the Reds demolish Bieber and Co. later this week.
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#15
Posted: 3/7/2012 7:45:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

The top team of each conference, plus the next top three teams in table points regardless of conference (wild card teams), will move on to the finals

The top two conference winners (most likely Reds here), based on table points, receive first-round byes

In the first round of the finals, the third conference winner is the #3 seed and hosts the wild card team with the worst record, and the best wild card team hosts the second-best wild card team

In the semi-finals, the #2 conference winner hosts the higher surviving seed from the first round, and the #1 conference winner hosts the other first-round winner.  (win this match and profit)

The final is hosted by the top remaining seed.


you are assuming the reds finish top 2

Let's do some simple math. Reds are about $1.70 to win the Aust conf. You're confident, so you think the $1.70 is overs, so you think $1.60 is the right price. The reds have to finish top 2, and there are 2/3 of a chance to that. But you think this is a good thing, so lets make it a $1.40 chance. They they have to win that semi final. They may play the top SA team or the top NZ team, or the 2nd best team from these countries. But they are good things and the line is -6.5, which works out to be again $1.40

So thats 1.6*1.4*1.4, which is $3.136. Even considering the very poor prices that I have given, (IMO should be $1.80, $1.60, $1.60), the 2.75 you are getting is a very poor price

I've been drinking, so my numbers maybe wrong, so its still a garbage price
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#16
Posted: 3/7/2012 1:51:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:



you are assuming the reds finish top 2

Let's do some simple math. Reds are about $1.70 to win the Aust conf. You're confident, so you think the $1.70 is overs, so you think $1.60 is the right price. The reds have to finish top 2, and there are 2/3 of a chance to that. But you think this is a good thing, so lets make it a $1.40 chance. They they have to win that semi final. They may play the top SA team or the top NZ team, or the 2nd best team from these countries. But they are good things and the line is -6.5, which works out to be again $1.40

So thats 1.6*1.4*1.4, which is $3.136. Even considering the very poor prices that I have given, (IMO should be $1.80, $1.60, $1.60), the 2.75 you are getting is a very poor price

I've been drinking, so my numbers maybe wrong, so its still a garbage price

Love the numbers does Hirschfeldeer

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#17
Posted: 3/7/2012 6:46:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:



you are assuming the reds finish top 2

Let's do some simple math. Reds are about $1.70 to win the Aust conf. You're confident, so you think the $1.70 is overs, so you think $1.60 is the right price. The reds have to finish top 2, and there are 2/3 of a chance to that. But you think this is a good thing, so lets make it a $1.40 chance. They they have to win that semi final. They may play the top SA team or the top NZ team, or the 2nd best team from these countries. But they are good things and the line is -6.5, which works out to be again $1.40

So thats 1.6*1.4*1.4, which is $3.136. Even considering the very poor prices that I have given, (IMO should be $1.80, $1.60, $1.60), the 2.75 you are getting is a very poor price

I've been drinking, so my numbers maybe wrong, so its still a garbage price


Hirsch!!!    You've seemed to have done the whoop-tootsy all over the calculator when you were partaking! 

Although the main purpose of this thread was to discuss the chances of the Reds getting to the Final, let me address the odds pricing once more.

Take the Reds to win the Aus Conference which is priced at $1.67/$1.70 at most books.  You would multiply this, simply, by what the ML price on the Reds to win their home semifinal would be.  Again, we are under the impression that the Reds win their conference, and because of the Force, Rebels, and Brumbies dishing out easy points, finish as once of the top two conference leaders.

So, $1.67/$1.67 multiplied by.....(Reds ML in their home semifinal against inferior opposition).  $1.60 to $1.70 range abouts?  Remember, the books have no problem cheapening the ML on the clear favorite in this comp.  The Crusaders were $1.53 in the Grand Final last year.

Anyway, multiplying that and you get a number anywhere between $2.65 - $2.85.  So, the $2.75 on offer is a decent price.

Remember, most Aus books are currently offering $2.50 for this. 

And because of the ability to win money for just getting to the GF, and the awesome ability to hedge off and make even more, the To Win price takes a 50-cent hit at $4.50, instead of the common going rate of $5.00.

I have no qualms on whether this is a good or bad price. 

Let's discuss the Reds chances of getting to the Grand Final.  Again, the Conference set-up an the Finals format GREATLY favors the Reds this season again.
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#18
Posted: 3/7/2012 6:53:55 PM
you have to factor in the chances of the reds finishing top 2, you can't just assume they'll be there. Even if you think them finishing top 2 is $1.10 you have to take it into consideration.

If the reds have locked up top 2 then you can ignore that factor, but until they do it is still a risk
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#19
Posted: 3/7/2012 7:00:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:

you have to factor in the chances of the reds finishing top 2, you can't just assume they'll be there. Even if you think them finishing top 2 is $1.10 you have to take it into consideration.

If the reds have locked up top 2 then you can ignore that factor, but until they do it is still a risk


That is true.  But there are no markets out there, at least I don't think there are, of the Reds finishing Top 2.

At any rate, let's discuss their chances?  After the first two matches, you can see that they are still hungry, still a force to be weary of, and will be very much active in July.

Any other sides you would fancy a GF Each-Way bet on?  Stormers perhaps?  I don't rate the Crusaders at all.
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#20
Posted: 3/7/2012 7:00:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:

you have to factor in the chances of the reds finishing top 2, you can't just assume they'll be there. Even if you think them finishing top 2 is $1.10 you have to take it into consideration.

If the reds have locked up top 2 then you can ignore that factor, but until they do it is still a risk
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#21
Posted: 3/7/2012 7:10:16 PM
Was also thinking of the same wager on the Storm in the NRL, but the NRL is waaaay too unpredictable compared to union.

They would be my play though if I had to pick a side.

OK....let's get back to the Reds! 
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#22
Posted: 3/7/2012 8:03:04 PM
If you break it down you are basically needing QLD Reds to be the top Australian team.

So looking at this purely from a footballing perspective, I don't think this is a great bet. As Hirschfelder pointed out they have to play arguably the two best teams from both NZ and Safferland ALL ON THE ROAD! Last year they enjoyed a bit of a dream draw IMO without trying to take away from what they achieved. Also whilst Harris is a serviceable number 10 (a lot has been made about his goal kicking) his general play and creativity pales to insignificance compared to what Quade Cooper brought to the table last season.


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#23
Posted: 3/7/2012 8:03:29 PM
BET365's NUMBERS on this prop.
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#24
Posted: 3/7/2012 8:04:30 PM
But then again if they enjoy the same level of ROSTOS LUCK like they did against the Tahs in round 1 then it is a shoo in
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#25
Posted: 3/7/2012 8:04:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



That is true.  But there are no markets out there, at least I don't think there are, of the Reds finishing Top 2.

At any rate, let's discuss their chances?  After the first two matches, you can see that they are still hungry, still a force to be weary of, and will be very much active in July.

Any other sides you would fancy a GF Each-Way bet on?  Stormers perhaps?  I don't rate the Crusaders at all.


Reds still to get back Cooper, but Crusaders still get back Carter and Richie. Crusaders showed last year that a lack of a home field isn't a worry.

The Aust conf will come down to week 18. The Tahs are a scrappy side, but they won't get blown out often so theit F&A will look good going into the Qld game. They also have an easier road schedule then the reds

At the prices the best value out there is the Bulls. There's some $13 out there, $7 to make the final.
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