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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Teams after TNF (long break) NFL
Burly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 9/21/2012 3:06:06 AM

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI is an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

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#2
Posted: 9/21/2012 7:55:09 AM
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#3
Posted: 9/21/2012 8:43:21 AM
cool
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#4
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:09:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

quote
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#5
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:09:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

quote
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#6
Posted: 9/21/2012 6:16:36 PM
clear as mud, you trend finding stud... once again, Burly, down time vs analytical
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#7
Posted: 9/23/2012 5:34:31 PM

CHI win and cover

i will continue to post under this thread

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#8
Posted: 9/24/2012 6:29:31 PM
Nice find, wish you the best of luck!
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#9
Posted: 9/24/2012 7:03:17 PM

ive put all the information into a spreadsheet and with two years plus the plays so far this season

ADDING: GB ML

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#10
Posted: 9/24/2012 7:16:03 PM

keep up the good work burly..

Highly appreciated

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#11
Posted: 9/25/2012 12:38:44 AM

wow just wow

that finish was just bs

GB should have won that game

 

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#12
Posted: 9/27/2012 12:53:07 PM
with a two year back check, including games played on Thanksgiving, and looking at TNF teams the following week with ten days to prepare...

TNF winners the next week are 12-6 SU & 10-7-1 ATS
TNF winners & favored the next week are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS
TNF losers the next week are 9-9 SU & 12-5-1 ATS
TNF losers & favored the next week are 3-0 SU & ATS
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#13
Posted: 9/28/2012 4:21:21 PM
Hardy I've broken it down even further and have three years data almost all entered into a spreadsheet I will post plays for this week before kickoff. I will include ATS or ML and O/U plays

I have also started looking into teams following off of MNF and it seems like situations are close to the TNF trends but will continue to collect data and double check
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#14
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:38:56 AM

If NYG close as a underdog: Play NYG ML or ATS

Also NYG Over 66% chance of hitting over 47

CAR Over 75% chance of hitting over 48.5

Overs are what they are, the % is enough to show profit over long term.

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#15
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:27:27 PM

also working on Teams after MNF

plays for this week:

GB ML GB Over

SEA game has no plays

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#16
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:55:20 PM
systems also says that NO should cover +9 but the Saints are a mess so that play is up to you
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#17
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:10:05 PM
Glad our intel is lining up. I'm on the G-men & Packers with you, plus the overs...
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#18
Posted: 10/1/2012 12:41:42 PM

2012 Record (posted plays)

ML: 2-2 (includes GB MNF "loss")

ATS: 2-0-1

O/U: 2-1

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#19
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:17:27 PM
Good info. Thanks for posting.
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#20
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:53:20 PM

Play KC ML and ATS and under

only one previous play for this play so play with some caution

No previous plays for Cle/Nyg game but would lean CLE +9.5

 

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#21
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:18:48 AM

Hi Burly,

Can you please specify on the background for the KC play today?

Thank you,

Appreciate your work

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#22
Posted: 10/7/2012 1:02:43 PM
all plays depend on TNF outcome and if TNF team is ud or fav in second game
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#23
Posted: 10/7/2012 4:57:51 PM
KC ATS!!!
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#24
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:09:52 AM

2012 Record (posted plays)

ML: 2-3 (includes GB MNF "loss")

ATS: 3-0-1

O/U: 3-1

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#25
Posted: 10/8/2012 3:06:00 AM

For week 6

STL game has no plays with high %

If ARI closes as FAV: Play ARI ML and BUF ATS and over

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