2012 Opening Game Favorite

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 Opening Game Favorite
therizz PM therizz
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quote#251
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:57:08 PM

Plays for 5/4

SEASON RECORD: 32-2                                +13.17U
AL: 15-1 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #33 (G1) 7:00 bal @ BOS -150  8.5     70/2.33U 

Ser #34 (G1) 7:00 phi @ WAS -180   6.5     78/2.6U

Ser #35 (G1) 7:00 oak @ TB -185     7        70/2.33U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50     +70, -105                                 x-x     +78
x-55-55                                                       15-81    
15-86-75                                                   15-88

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30
therizz PM therizz
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quote#252
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:58:46 PM

Plays for 5/5

SEASON RECORD: 32-2                                +13.17U
AL: 15-1 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #33 (G2) 7:00 bal @ BOS -120     110/3.67U 

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50     +70, -105                                 x-x     +78
x-55-55                                                       15-81    
15-86-75                                                   15-88

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30


therizz PM therizz
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quote#253
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:00:29 PM

Plays for 5/5

SEASON RECORD: 32-2                                +8.87U
AL: 15-1 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #33 (G2) 7:00 bal @ BOS -120     110/3.67U 

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50                                                        x-x   
x-55-55-66      -132                                       15-81    
15-86-75-66                                                   15-88

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30
therizz PM therizz
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quote#254
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:01:58 PM

Plays for 5/6

SEASON RECORD: 32-2                                +8.87U
AL: 15-1 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #33 (G3) 1:00 bal @ BOS -145     101/3.37U 

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50                                                        x-x   
x-55-55-66      -132                                       15-81    
15-86-75-66                                                   15-88

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30
therizz PM therizz
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quote#255
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:03:25 PM

Plays for 5/6

SEASON RECORD: 32-3                               +3.87U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #33 (G3) 1:00 bal @ BOS -145     101/3.37U 

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50-75                                                        x-x   
x-55-55-66                                                   15-81    
15-86-75-66-75 -150                                    15-88

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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quote#256
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:25:53 PM
Rizz, even with three losses, record is great. Question ? Any chance that adding additional filters may help us the rest of the way? For example eliminating teams below .500? Any thoughts?
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therizz PM therizz
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quote#257
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:58:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Rizz, even with three losses, record is great. Question ? Any chance that adding additional filters may help us the rest of the way? For example eliminating teams below .500? Any thoughts?


I usually do this after the all star break.  I may do it earlier this year...
airattackers PM airattackers
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quote#258
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:33:41 AM
hey rizz, i just want to say that i think u r doing a wonderful job and that people should just be patient and stay the course...i see a lot of people want to talk bad about the system or just quit..but only 3 series losses aint nothin to quit over...people should realize when you gamble there will be some losses...this system has been successfull for a while now and it is due for some losses...but im in it for the long haul because i can see the real value in this...so keep up the good work and ignore the buttholes!!!
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#259
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:21:49 PM

Looks like Philly is the only for sure play today....

Dodgers are leaning that way too (low 140s)

googotts PM googotts
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quote#260
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:37:39 PM

glefkb01,

what about LAA -167 ?????

MortgageMan PM MortgageMan
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quote#261
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:15:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by googotts:

glefkb01,

what about LAA -167 ?????

This system only bets home teams. Read the rules on page one of this thread and it spells it all out.

Good luck!

SoCal311 PM SoCal311
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quote#262
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:43:00 PM
googotts PM googotts
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quote#263
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:16:49 PM
Thanks MM
therizz PM therizz
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quote#264
Posted: 5/7/2012 7:01:11 PM
PHI to win 76/2.53U
therizz PM therizz
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quote#265
Posted: 5/7/2012 7:23:04 PM

Plays for 5/7

SEASON RECORD: 32-3                               +3.87U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 17-1 (G1:12, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin

Ser #36 (G1) 7:00 nym @ PHI -170   6.5     76/2.53U

Ser #37 (G1) 10:00 sf @ LAD -160    6.5      76/2.53U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x-50-75                                                     15-61   
x-55-55-66                                                   15-61    
15-86-75-66-75                                           15-62

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23     

22-23     

22-23

Base 1U = 30
Riceboi PM Riceboi
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quote#266
Posted: 5/8/2012 1:23:56 PM
Phillies game 2 today
robbypark PM robbypark
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quote#267
Posted: 5/8/2012 2:47:59 PM
The Dodgers should not be a play Rizz.  They won game 1 of their series last night.
hehrsy PM hehrsy
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quote#268
Posted: 5/8/2012 2:50:18 PM
Those were plays for 5/7 Robby. Only play today is Philly game 2.
therizz PM therizz
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quote#269
Posted: 5/8/2012 7:36:55 PM

Plays for 5/7

SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                 +2.20U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #36 (G1) 7:00 nym @ PHI -170 6.5 76/2.53U  

Ser #37 (G1) 10:00 sf @ LAD -160 6.5 76/2.53U   

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                                NL:
x-x-50-75                                                           x-61   +76, -126
x-55-55-66                                                         15-61-65
15-86-75-66-75                                                   15-62

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30
therizz PM therizz
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quote#270
Posted: 5/8/2012 7:39:12 PM

Plays for 5/8

SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       +2.20U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #36 (G2) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          80/2.67U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                  NL:
x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65
15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30
airattackers PM airattackers
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quote#271
Posted: 5/9/2012 12:29:48 AM
hey rizz,can we bring back the over .500 filter?
peter1988 PM peter1988
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quote#272
Posted: 5/9/2012 1:37:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by airattackers:

hey rizz,can we bring back the over .500 filter?


this may not be a bad idea, teams like PHI/BOS are having over-inflated lines yet they're not playing very well.
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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quote#273
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:38:39 AM
It's the same question I asked him, and if you see above somewhere I think he said he would consider it. But i think were all on the same page with the .500 filter. It's the Rizz's call. The books are giving these good teams from last year over inflated juice, forcing them to fall into system plays when they normally wouldnt qualify.
Posted using a mobile device.
Nagelan PM Nagelan
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quote#274
Posted: 5/9/2012 12:57:30 PM
Beginning on 4/16 the following series would not have qualified with a .500 filter:

4/16    - LAA - .400
4/17    - MIA - .455
4/20    - LAA - .357
4/23    - MIL - .471
4/27    - CIN - .450
4/27    - PHI - .450
4/28    - LAA - .318
5/4      - BOS - .440 (Loss)
5/7      - PHI - .467 (Game 3 Pending)

I started on April 16th for two reasons.  First, all teams had played approximately 10 games at that point.  It would be difficult to apply a .500 filter any earlier in the season because a few wins or losses creates a big swing.  Second, there was no pending series at that point.  Started with the "Game 1's" on 4/16.

Seven winning series would not have qualified.  Game 3 losses on DET 4/26 and SF 5/3 would have stood.  The BOS series resulting in a game 3 loss on 5/6 would have been filtered out.  Also the current PHI series on game 3 tonight, would have been filtered out.
therizz PM therizz
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quote#275
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:06:55 PM
Guys,
This shat is unbelievable.  What a horrible stretch we are on.  We continue to see inflated lines on some popular teams that are having really crappy seasons, esp Phi and Bos.....  I would advise those of you wanting to be more conservative to do the over .500 win percentage at home or stick just to the filtered plays.  I would not blame anyone for bailing at this point.  I have backtested the crap out of this and the win percentages for the different levels of plays always turned out pretty good but I can't even remember the last +money day we have had and now we are staring at another C bet.  I am just hoping this ship rights itself soon.

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