| Author: |
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012 |
|
bettor2win |
RSI   View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#851 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:01:00 AM Looking at some more numbers, system isn't too far gone BUT A+B games should win us 90% of the games right off the bat. A Games should win us 60% also (that's pretty consistant over the years). 53% for A Game winners is too low, way too low.
Granted, MLB started about a half week later this year, so maybe it's just fine tuning right now. IDK. The RPI numbers are not too high or low for the top and bottom teams, our problem is losing teams/.500 are getting high RPI points.
Irage is right, be discriminant.
What do you guys think about a 4.5 game difference in record to start off with as a filter for May? They say every system loses eventually, I just don't to start now. |
|
quote |
|
irage |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3775
Location: Utah |
#852 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:36:19 AM
I agree with B2W, adding a filter is going to reduce our choices and hopefully pick more winners. Lets start looking for filters.
|
|
quote |
|
irage |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3775
Location: Utah |
#853 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:44:01 AM
4/20 - (A) WhiteSox .545 -123 - (H46) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Washington .769 -115 - (H133) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Cincinnati .333 -122 - (V64) - WIN
4/20 - (A) St. Louis .750 -124 - (V54) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Cleveland .500 -116 - (V85) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Mets .583 -131 (H153) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Boston .333 -110 - (H77) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Tampa Bay .500 -176 - (H43) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Milwaukee .500 -127 - (H75) - LOSS
4/21 - (A) Texas .333 -103 - (V84) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Mets .583 -109 (H153) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Tampa Bay .500 -198 - (H43) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Milwaukee .500 -121 - (H75) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Baltimore .583 +181 (V174) - LOSS
4/22 - (C) Baltimore .533 +158 (V140) - WIN
4/23 - (A) Texas .800 -139 (H132) - LOSS
4/23 - (A) St. Louis .667 -111 (V75) - LOSS
4/23 - (A) WhiteSox .600 -108 (V203) - WIN
4/24 - (B) Texas .800 -139 (H113) - WIN
4/24 - (B) St. Louis .667 -111 (V75) - LOSS
4/24 - (A) Mets .571 +104 (H138) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Washington .750 -115 (V112) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Cleveland .615 -130 (H104) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Tampa Bay .533 -148 (H109) - WIN
4/25 - (C) St. Louis .667 -144 (V75) - WIN
4/26 - (A) WhiteSox .583 -118 (V78) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Cleveland .529 +132 (H49) - WIN
4/27 - (A) Seattle .500 +178 (V50) - WIN
4/27 - (A) Atlanta .632 -174 (H69) - WIN
4/27 - (A) San Francisco .532 +104 (H53) - LOSS
4/27 - (B) WhiteSox .583 +101 (H78) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Baltimore .632 -126 (H88) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Texas .789 -140 (H92) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Mets .579 +149 (V108) - LOSS
I'm chasing Baltimore, San Francisco and I know it's crazy, but C games are 100%, WhiteSox. Technically, I like all these games except for the Mets.
4/28 - (C) WhiteSox .583 +101 (H78) - PENDING
4/28 - (B) San Francisco .532 -159 (H53) - PENDING
4/28 - (B) Baltimore .632 -126 (H88) - PENDING
4/28 - (B) Texas .789 -160 (H92) - PENDING
4/28 - (B) Mets .579 +128 (V108) - PENDING
|
|
quote |
|
BookieCrusher88 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1281
Location: |
#854 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:25:01 PM  This would be their LAST chance to win. If they don't, sweep is on the way. Just my two cents. This is by far the best match up they have in the rotation. Lester vs Peavy. Peavy wins IMO.
|
|
quote |
|
BookieCrusher88 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1281
Location: |
#855 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:27:21 PM
|
|
quote |
|
|
|
HECTAR |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 406
Location: |
#856 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:32:54 PM |
|
quote |
|
neilsy25 |
RSI |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 706
Location: |
#857 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:35:24 PM |
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#858 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:54:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by HECTAR:
Hectar lovers ATL!!! With 3 games left in the series time for a double dip!!!
 I didnt realize it was 4 games!!
On ATL again boys! |
|
quote |
|
irage |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3775
Location: Utah |
#859 Posted: 4/28/2012 9:49:18 PM
The system still works. Come'on WhiteSox don't fail me now. Great game for Peavy so far.
|
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#860 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:49:55 PM Well, Im glad the NYM, SF & TEX came through for whoever bet them. I didn't. I'm on a "B" game with ATL tomorrow. I do have to say though, winning "A" games is so much easier!! |
|
quote |
|
SoCal311 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 337
Location: California |
#861 Posted: 4/29/2012 12:00:28 AM   |
|
quote |
|
robbypark |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1982
Location: Saskatchewan |
#862 Posted: 4/29/2012 12:28:18 AM |
|
quote |
|
traviosoway |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 58
Location: Texas |
#863 Posted: 4/29/2012 1:43:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by irage:
Things looking much better today on the B games. Mets behind, but time to get it done, Texas tight, but out front, WhiteSox still have a prayer, but have to close it up in the 9th.
The system still works. Come'on WhiteSox don't fail me now. Great game for Peavy so far.
Don't forget Baltimore with the easy win.
|
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#864 Posted: 4/29/2012 5:26:36 AM ATL is on a "B" game tomorrow. If you haven't bet ATL lately, let me tell ya that ATL has the most runs scored in the NL and only 4 runs less than TEX and 7 less than BOS. You should jump on against pit.
Here's my opinion about baseball....
1. Think elementary when handicapping games/series chases.
2. Pitching matchups mean very little in my book. The Bullpen will screw it up if your team isn't leading by 3 runs anyway. Starting pitchers are totally, 100%, completely overated in my book.
3. Think logically. These are all MLB players. They got here for a reason. They can all hit 95mph fastballs. That means Halladay and the stud Verlander.
4. I personally do not really care about pitching matchups with the RPI, or a straight up game, because, as I learned in Little League, High School & College ball, somehow, we always seemed to get to the pitcher...and remember, we are betting on the better team.
5. The ML is determined by the starting pitchers. Which, ultimately, will have no bearing on most close games (the better team normally wins, meaning they have a better bullpen). Close games are usually decided by the bullpen malfunction.
That's my take. It's how I see it. Played it as baseball player. And bet it as a degenerate.
Now, DON'T SCREW IT UP!!!
|
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#865 Posted: 4/29/2012 5:59:13 AM |
|
quote |
|
xX80Xx |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 37
Location: Poland |
#866 Posted: 4/29/2012 5:59:49 AM
Now let me prepare to tomorrow RPI. For me we should start with ATL at game "B" or if you find something interesting we will start ATL "B" and other "A" games. Its my opinion but waiting on your decision and Irage OFFICIAL playes.
Regards guys from sunny Poland 
|
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#867 Posted: 4/29/2012 6:18:17 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by xX80Xx:
B2W very good thinking about baseball. For me you look most adult in your conceptions and system understanding from whole guys in here with theirs systems
Now let me prepare to tomorrow RPI. For me we should start with ATL at game "B" or if you find something interesting we will start ATL "B" and other "A" games. Its my opinion but waiting on your decision and Irage OFFICIAL playes.
Regards guys from sunny Poland
In my opinion, but didn't want to disrupt the RPI, ATL would have been a legit play. And since they won their "A" game I would have told others to play it again since they won (4 game series). BUT, since I told everyone the RPI starts Monday, I did not write it in stone.
"ATL" would be only play tomorrow, as a "B" bet. I believe all other bets won this weekend except the CWS which, none of the plays were official anyway, including ATL. But ATL is official to ME! GL |
|
quote |
|
xX80Xx |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 37
Location: Poland |
#868 Posted: 4/29/2012 6:36:27 AM
Yes whole other games are ended good job
|
|
quote |
|
irage |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3775
Location: Utah |
#869 Posted: 4/29/2012 11:32:36 AM
First off we are doing this to help you win, follow the strategy and you will make money. B2W has put a lot of time into this and has tremendous insight. He believes in beating the books and gives this system away for free. A sign of someone that is working for YOU, how many people do you have in your life that are helping you to make money? Other than myself, I have none.
I suggest picking one or two series, don't try to pick them all. Both B2W, GLEF, myself and a couple others offer what we think our the best series plays. Of course if you have a compelling reason to pick a series, please tell us.
We our a community of winners, so please act like one. Winners show respect, winners work together and winners most of all WIN.
Lastly, manage your bankroll, greed is the enemy of every gambler. Take it slow and make smart decisions. A couple of times in the year there are what I call "DOUBLE DIME" plays. These plays you can load up on and give your roll and big bump and will be designated with "DOUBLE DIME" in the title.
I do want to give a special thanks to Superman and Major. Both have created a AWESOME spreadsheets that I recommend you use. If you haven't checked it out, you should.
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101332893
Good luck, guys!
4/20 - (A) Toronto (4) .545 +102 - (V145) - WIN
4/20 - (A) WhiteSox .545 -123 - (H46) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Washington .769 -115 - (H133) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Cincinnati .333 -122 - (V64) - WIN
4/20 - (A) St. Louis .750 -124 - (V54) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Cleveland .500 -116 - (V85) - WIN
4/20 - (A) Mets .583 -131 (H153) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Boston .333 -110 - (H77) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Tampa Bay .500 -176 - (H43) - LOSS
4/20 - (A) Milwaukee .500 -127 - (H75) - LOSS
4/21 - (A) Texas .333 -103 - (V84) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Mets .583 -109 (H153) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Tampa Bay .500 -198 - (H43) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Milwaukee .500 -121 - (H75) - WIN
4/21 - (B) Baltimore .583 +181 (V174) - LOSS
4/22 - (C) Baltimore .533 +158 (V140) - WIN
4/23 - (A) Texas .800 -139 (H132) - LOSS
4/23 - (A) St. Louis .667 -111 (V75) - LOSS
4/23 - (A) WhiteSox .600 -108 (V203) - WIN
4/24 - (B) Texas .800 -139 (H113) - WIN
4/24 - (B) St. Louis .667 -111 (V75) - LOSS
4/24 - (A) Mets .571 +104 (H138) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Washington .750 -115 (V112) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Cleveland .615 -130 (H104) - WIN
4/24 - (A) Tampa Bay .533 -148 (H109) - WIN
4/25 - (C) St. Louis .667 -144 (V75) - WIN
4/26 - (A) WhiteSox .583 -118 (V78) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Cleveland .529 +132 (H49) - WIN
4/27 - (A) Seattle .500 +178 (V50) - WIN
4/27 - (A) Atlanta .632 -174 (H69) - WIN
4/27 - (A) San Francisco .532 +104 (H53) - LOSS
4/27 - (B) WhiteSox .583 +101 (H78) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Baltimore .632 -126 (H88) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Texas .789 -140 (H92) - LOSS
4/27 - (A) Mets .579 +149 (V108) - LOSS
4/28 - (C) WhiteSox .583 +101 (H78) - LOSS
4/28 - (B) San Francisco .532 -159 (H53) - WIN
4/28 - (B) Baltimore .632 -126 (H88) - WIN
4/28 - (B) Texas .789 -160 (H92) - WIN
4/28 - (B) Mets .579 +128 (V108) - WIN
|
|
quote |
|
xX80Xx |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 37
Location: Poland |
#870 Posted: 4/29/2012 1:05:44 PM
As someone said a tone of times:
"Work the system, don't get worked by the system"
GL everyone who play ATL "B" today
|
|
quote |
|
murphmanny |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 90
Location: |
#871 Posted: 4/29/2012 2:45:21 PM
That sounded pretty confusing myself, but it's a simple concept. |
|
quote |
|
bettor2win |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2141
Location: California |
#872 Posted: 4/29/2012 3:32:15 PM |
|
Posted using a mobile device.quote |
|
irage |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3775
Location: Utah |
#873 Posted: 4/29/2012 3:38:47 PM
|
|
quote |
|
murphmanny |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 90
Location: |
#874 Posted: 4/29/2012 3:48:53 PM |
|
quote |
|
pratt |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 120
Location: Ontario |
#875 Posted: 4/29/2012 5:09:27 PM 
See you all tomorrow for the RPI kick off! |
|
quote |