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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL RPI DOGS Trial
RealityCheck1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/24/2011 8:39:55 AM

I noticed this the other night with TOR @ TB and EDM @ NAS

Both TOR and EDM were huge dogs yet they both had a higher RPI then TB and NAS. Both TOR and EDM easily won on the road 7-1 and 6-2

So going to post some plays as a trial and see what happens as the season goes on.  This could be a good way to pick some dogs.

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glefkb01
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#2
Posted: 11/24/2011 8:54:28 AM
Always nice to throw some doggies...... Try to do some back testing or tell me how and I will help
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#3
Posted: 11/24/2011 2:39:31 PM
do you know which site that offers archive data for power rankings? If i can then i can definately back track for you.
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#4
Posted: 11/25/2011 8:53:51 AM

Since RPI changes everyday it would be impossible to backtest without a site that keeps those daily stats.

Remember this is a trial, so bet small or don't bet at all.

Todays play

WIN +125

WIN is 2 RPI higher then CAR and they have more goals scored and less against, but they are on the road.

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#5
Posted: 11/25/2011 9:13:02 AM
So....   we are 2-0 YTD on this    with WIN pending
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#6
Posted: 11/25/2011 10:48:34 PM
WIN
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glefkb01
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#7
Posted: 11/26/2011 8:25:57 AM
Looks good!
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#8
Posted: 11/26/2011 10:57:41 AM

Well we have PHI +104   EDM +108 and FLA +113

But all 3 played last night, so not a good play for the dogs to win, so no plays today.

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#9
Posted: 11/26/2011 12:00:16 PM

Lets just go by the numbers....     Last Saturday dogs were like

9-1 so go with it... dont combine with B2B fade ...

What does the RPI say

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#10
Posted: 11/26/2011 4:17:55 PM

Then the plays would be

PHI +104  

EDM +108 

FLA +113

But as you know teams playing on back to back nights are losing at more then 60%.  See how it plays out since it's only a trial.

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#11
Posted: 11/27/2011 6:38:50 AM
0-3. LOL. Didn't play any but good call on not playing them
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#12
Posted: 11/27/2011 1:45:50 PM

Hard enough to pick dogs, even harder for the dog to win on B2B nights.

Todays play

TOR +115

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#13
Posted: 11/28/2011 5:22:32 PM

TOR

4-0

With DAL's goalie out, no plays today

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#14
Posted: 11/29/2011 3:53:19 AM
where do i find the RPI ratings?
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#15
Posted: 11/29/2011 9:30:13 AM
ESPN has it under hockey, Relative Power Index (RPI).
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#16
Posted: 11/29/2011 10:20:22 AM

http://espn.go.com/nhl/stats/rpi

Updated each day around 9am est

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#17
Posted: 11/29/2011 11:15:16 AM
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#18
Posted: 11/29/2011 1:23:42 PM
Pheonix and St. Louis for today ? 
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#19
Posted: 11/29/2011 4:20:58 PM

Todays plays

FLA +102

NAS +115

STl +115

OTT +106

PHX +134

This should test the RPI factor.  Both FLA and NAS have higher power ranking and have more goals for and less against.  STL have a higher power ranking but less goals scored then WAS and less against.  OTT has a higher power ranking, more goals scored and more goals against. PHX has a lower power ranking with less goals scored but less goals against.

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#20
Posted: 11/29/2011 4:52:42 PM
nash played yesterday,,doesnt matter?
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#21
Posted: 11/29/2011 6:43:31 PM

Good eye, skip NAS then.

Todays plays

FLA +102

STL +115

OTT +106

PHX +134

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#22
Posted: 11/29/2011 11:30:26 PM
4-0 night, nice
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glefkb01
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#23
Posted: 11/30/2011 6:13:34 AM
Good call on Nas they lost. Nice RC
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#24
Posted: 11/30/2011 3:10:31 PM

Record 8-0

Todays play

MON +102

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#25
Posted: 11/30/2011 5:26:20 PM

Wednesday, 11/30/2011 (9) MONTREAL vs. (10) ANAHEIM

Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line.

ANAHEIM is 0-13 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against good starting goalies - saving >= 91.5% of shots against this season. 
The average score was ANAHEIM 1.8, OPPONENT 3.7 - 
 (Rating = 7*)

 

Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line.

ANAHEIM is 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line against poor offensive teams - scoring <=2.55 goals/game this season. 
The average score was ANAHEIM 1.5, OPPONENT 3.5 - 
 (Rating = 4*)

 

Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line.

ANAHEIM is 2-13 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. 
The average score was ANAHEIM 2.3, OPPONENT 3.8 - 
 (Rating = 3*)

Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line.

ANAHEIM is 2-13 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. 
The average score was ANAHEIM 2.3, OPPONENT 3.8 - 
 (Rating = 3*)

 

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