Over / Under Poisson strategy

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Over / Under Poisson strategy
ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 10:39:04 AM
By the way i just take games over 70%
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 11:17:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

calinreddog for the heck of it i tried ovr/und with the poisson calculator for college bb & nba & it has worked out pretty good. I just did it for a couple of days & maybe i just got lucky. Gonna keep on doing it & see what happens. I just use offense & no defense. Are you still using only offense?

No man, since I lost 5 totals tuesday on british soccer I found a way to include the defense in my calculator and the results are much better. I compute over/under both for offence and defense and than make the mean between chances given by the offense and chances given by the defense and that mean it's my estimate for over / under chances.

I am curious about basketball. I didn't say it's not working because I've tried, but the point is that scoring in any sport where you can score more than 1 point at a given time is not a Poisson process and the points are not distributed accordingly to the Poisson distribution.

I don't know about anyone trying to test it for basketball totals, but, at least in theory, it's not supposed to work.

Keep posting when you have much data for basketball.

ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 1:12:48 PM
These are the plays i come up with in college bb...no nba with ovr 70%
90% or ovr
Wash St at ASU ovr 107.5
Pepperdine at SF und 140.5
80% or ovr
Mich St at Iowa ovr 124.5
Troy at N. Texas und 162.5
Fla Int. at New Orleans und 123.5
Nevada at Utah St ovr 131
Illinois at Minnesota ovr 127
S. Alabama at Denver ovr 122
Portland St at Montana ovr 132.5
70% or ovr
Clemson at Va. Tech ovr 143.5
Alabama at Arkansas ovr 138.5
San Diego at Portland ovr 123
California at UCLA ovr 140
Stanford at USC ovr 135
Cal Irvine at Cal Riverside ovr 121
Saint Marys at Gonzaga ovr 144.5
Georgia Southern at Samford ovr 130.5
Jacksonville St. at SE Missouri St und 146.5
E. Washington at Montana St. und 132
N. Colorado at Sacramento St und 138

Alot of games. The totals were taken from yesterday at bookmaker so the totals might have changed. See how it plays out.
ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 1:42:40 PM
calinreddog how can you send those spreadsheets you have for win% & all the other ones you have?
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 2:00:55 PM
Write your e-mail in your space, in your playbook and I'll mail them to you.
expertcapper PM expertcapper
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Posted: 1/29/2009 2:40:02 PM
reddog who do you use for a book because at my book they don't have european hockey

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 2:44:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by expertcapper:

reddog who do you use for a book because at my book they don't have european hockey

Expekt, Ladbrokes, 10bet.

ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:31:31 PM
calinreddog what did you come up in nhl today? I got dallas-detroit ovr 5.5 & NJ-Boston ovr 5.5 with this last one rated higher.
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:34:25 PM
Results for european hockey today:
 

IFK Helsinki – TPS Turku under 5.5 6-4

Karlovy Vary – Znojmo under 5.5 2-1

Lorenskrog – Stjernen over 5.5 4-3

Vienna Capitals – Innsbruck over 5.5 3-4

Linz – Red Bull Salzburg over 5.5 1-3

Sodertalje – Frolunda under 5.5 1-4

Farjestad – Lulea under 5.5 3-2

 

Today: 5-2 win - loss

Overall: 23 - 10 win - loss (69.7%)

 

elithepunk PM elithepunk
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:38:13 PM
good stuff so far calin
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:39:28 PM
NHL pick:
 
Toronto @ Colorado over 5.5.
 
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:41:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by elithepunk:

good stuff so far calin

Thanks, I've been working the last week on 2 systems: one for O/U and one for sides. The sides system let me down today but the O/U system works much better and works pretty constantly so far, so I'll stick only to my over / under system.

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 3:43:47 PM
Tomorrow there are a lot of good over / under plays both in soccer and european hockey. I'll come back later with the picks.
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 4:33:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

calinreddog how can you send those spreadsheets you have for win% & all the other ones you have?

Check your e-mail.

ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 7:47:04 PM
What does PWP stand for on the spreadsheet? On Toronto-Col i only get 57.44 chances for ovr according to the spreadsheet. I thought you took plays at 60%? Maybe i understood wrong or i dont know if i missed something.
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 7:57:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

What does PWP stand for on the spreadsheet? On Toronto-Col i only get 57.44 chances for ovr according to the spreadsheet. I thought you took plays at 60%? Maybe i understood wrong or i dont know if i missed something.

I have 60.34% over at TOR@COL. Did you use the home numbers for colorado and away numbers for toronto?

I have col at home 25 / 78 / 69 and toronto away 25 / 74 / 95.

And PWP is projected winning percentage.

ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/29/2009 9:13:29 PM
I got my numbers from nhl.com col is 25-75-69 toronto 25-73-93. Where did you get your stats?
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 4:28:15 AM
NHL pick
tor @ col over 5.5 7-4
 
Overall record: 24 - 10 win - loss (70.5%)
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 4:31:55 AM
Today I have 18 over / under picks for european hockey and soccer. Let's see how's the record after these.
 

Soccer

DijonAjaccio over 2.5

MetzAmiens under 2.5

Sedan – Angers under 2.5

Vannes – Tours under 2.5

Chateauroux – Lens under 2.5

AugsburgNurnberg under 2.5

Setubal – Guimaraes under 2.5

Cambuur – Zwolle over 2.5

Hockey

Voskreshensk – Novokuznetsk under 5.5

Yaroslavl – MVD TVER under 5.5

Trencin – L. Mikulas over 5.5

Martin – Banska Bystrica over 5.5

Kosice – Slovan Bratislava over 5.5

DEG Metro Stars – Frankfurt under 5.5

Bern – Lugano over 5.5

Servette – Langnau over 5.5

Kloten – Biel over 5.5

Zug – Fribourg over 5.5

 

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:09:20 PM

 

DijonAjaccio over 2.5 2-1

MetzAmiens under 2.5 2-1

Sedan – Angers under 2.5 0-0

Vannes – Tours under 2.5 1-0

Chateauroux – Lens under 2.5 0-0

AugsburgNurnberg under 2.5 0-0

Setubal – Guimaraes under 2.5 2-2

Cambuur – Zwolle over 2.5 postponed

Voskreshensk – Novokuznetsk under 5.5 1-3

Yaroslavl – MVD TVER under 5.5 7-2

Trencin – L. Mikulas over 5.5 2-3

Martin – Banska Bystrica over 5.5 4-2

Kosice – Slovan Bratislava over 5.5 5-4

DEG Metro Stars – Frankfurt under 5.5 5-2

Bern – Lugano over 5.5 1-2

Servette – Langnau over 5.5 2-3

Kloten – Biel over 5.5 5-1

Zug – Fribourg over 5.5 2-1

 

9-8 win-loss

Overall: 33-18 (64.7%)

 

 

expertcapper PM expertcapper
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:18:44 PM
again when do these games take place what time here in America?
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:42:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by expertcapper:

again when do these games take place what time here in America?

They usually start around 11:00 (ET). At 11:00 always start the hockey games in Slovakia, at 11:30 in Czech and Finland, at 13:00 in Sweden and so on. In Russia they can start earlier (may start at 06:00 ET, depends where is the game played in Russia).

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:48:21 PM
Picks for tonight ( I thought I should give it a try for basketball as well):
 
NHL
pit-nj over 5.5
nas-cal over 5.5
ott-cbj under 5.5
NBA
bos-det over 180
lac-cle over 189
cha-den over 193
okc-uta under 211
gsw-noh under 214.5
NCAAB
penn-harv under 142.5
val-but under 122.5
loymd-rider under 142
ferndog PM ferndog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:52:07 PM
calinreddog are you using pwp spreadsheet for bb to get the plays for your totals?
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 1/30/2009 5:52:59 PM
... and chi-sac under 213
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