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[Other] Topic: HoH's SOBER AFL Round 16 Spoutfest |
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HeadOverHeart |
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#1 Posted: 7/11/2012 1:53:43 AM 
Would take 1,700 cans of Coca-Cola to get drunk. In one sitting.
 WHO'S WITH ME?!!!!!!!!!!
Ok, I'm not doing a very good job of convincing anybody on here that I am sober, so I'll shut up and get on with it. 
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HeadOverHeart |
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#2 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:13:17 AM
Round 16 Fixture| Home Team | | Away Team | | Ground | Date | Home Team Line
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| North Melbourne | | | v | Carlton | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 13 (Fri 7:50pm) | Roos +5.5
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| Melbourne | | | v | Fremantle | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 1:45pm) | Dees +17.5
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| Port Adelaide | | | v | Essendon | | | AAMI Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 2:10pm) | Power +17.5
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| Richmond | | | v | Gold Coast | | | Cazaly's Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 4:40pm) | Tigers -37.5
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| Geelong | | | v | Collingwood | | | Melbourne Cricket Ground | Jul 14 (Sat 7:40pm) | Cats +10.5
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| Brisbane Lions | | | v | St Kilda | | | Gabba | Jul 14 (Sat 8:40pm) | Lions +13.5
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| GWS Giants | | | v | Adelaide | | | Skoda Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 1:10pm) | n00bs +70.5
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| Western Bulldogs | | | v | Hawthorn | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 3:15pm) | Dogs +49.5
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| West Coast | | | v | Sydney | | | Patersons Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 4:40pm) | Eagles +9.5
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HeadOverHeart |
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#3 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:15:56 AM
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Django |
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#4 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:19:30 AM
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Django |
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#5 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:23:54 AM
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ecoute |
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#6 Posted: 7/11/2012 9:34:36 AM 
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HeadOverHeart |
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#7 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:13:30 PM | North Melbourne | | | v | Carlton | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 13 (Fri 7:50pm) | Roos +5.5 |
Well, in this match I see two teams with two different styles and two different approaches. Carlton has been a wild team this year. You never know what you're going to get with them. Carlton's on-field performance is a direct result of Ratten's emotional Jekyll and Hyde he treats us to every round. He's a good guy, a likeable guy, no doubt, but watching him in the coaches box going through the five acts of Othello every match is not good for the stability of his side.
North, on the other hand, do not have as much talent as Carlton. But they are scrappers and have been for the past few seasons. Coming off a loss last round in which they were leading for 115 straight minutes  , will have them itching and angry.
With Murphy likely not to feature, I am backing on emotions here. I like the Roos and what you get with them most rounds: scrappy tenacity. I am taking that fueled with remembering last round's heartbreak and what is sure to be another Blues rollercoaster.
North Melbourne +5.5
North Melbourne ML $2.20
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#8 Posted: 7/11/2012 2:32:58 PM | Melbourne | | | v | Fremantle | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 1:45pm) | Dees +17.5 |
Ok, let's make this one simple. When looking at teams that are perennial losers like the Dees (sorry Melbourne, I like you, I really do), you have to figure that the books know every Joe punter will be backing against them because most figure they will lose. But by how much?
The key to solving the Demons is handballs, handballs, handballs. Sounds lewd, I know. Hahaha..... 
The Demons have the most trouble matching up against sides that lean more toward moving carefully by hand as opposed to showing off those fancy boots every possession. This is bad news for them in Round 16 as Fremantle is one of those teams.
As for Fremantle, they also struggle when going up against teams that are proficient handballers (see almost-shocker v. Suns in Round 6 - Suns are handballers extraordinaires). Luckily for the Dockers, the Demons couldn't handball their way out of a wet pre-match banner. The Dees rely heavily on the kick and long ball to move on the field, exactly the kind of side that the Dockers excel at facing.
I reckon, if the Dockers show up and not their twin the Shockers, and stay focused, we shall see a 3+ goal difference here.
Fremantle -17.5
Fremantle ML $1.40
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Django |
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#9 Posted: 7/11/2012 6:52:31 PM
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HeadOverHeart |
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#10 Posted: 7/12/2012 2:36:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:
HoH rumours are floating around that Sonny Bill Williams may be going to Sydney Swans next year. Would you wear his number on your supporter guernsey?
Hahaha....nice piss take there django.
He'll be at Panasonic after the Japanese gave him a second offer for $100,000 a match. Then, and then my boys, he'll be a Bondi Man for 2013!!!!
Hopefully the atrocious Roosters administration can get their garbage together by then and give him some people to play with ffs.
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#11 Posted: 7/12/2012 2:42:19 AM | Port Adelaide | | | v | Essendon | | | AAMI Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 2:10pm) | Power +17.5 |
Unfortunately, no play on this match. Port has had the recent wood on the Bombers but that is only because Essendon has been taking gas for years. At any rate, in this match-up Essendon does better at AAMI versus the Power than they fare at the TD, errm, ummm, yeah, Etihad. Can someone bring back the Telstra Dome? Please? I am sick of hearing 12 pronunciation varieties on Etihad. TD just sounds better.
Much obliged.
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#12 Posted: 7/12/2012 2:49:30 AM | Richmond | | | v | Gold Coast | | | Cazaly's Stadium | Jul 14 (Sat 4:40pm) | Tigers -37.5 |
Richmond is garbage. But they do kick goals.
Gold Coast is garbage. And they don't kick goals.
So why am I laughing seeing the Tigers giving a side, any side, 37.5?
Am I laughing because Gold Coast BEAT the Tigers here at Cazaly's last season?
Am I laughing because this match will be a slopfest?
Or am I laughing because I have broken into the Crown Royal and have an itch on my foot?
Somethings will never be known.
So I will let this match swim out to shore. And be taken away by a Chinese submarine. Never to be seen again.....
Naw, darn it.....I smell a ringer here....
Gold Coast +37.5
Gold Coast ML $5.50 (small)
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HeadOverHeart |
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#13 Posted: 7/12/2012 2:52:08 AM
North Melbourne +5.5
North Melbourne ML $2.15 (dropped .05)
Fremantle -16.5 (dropped a point)
Fremantle ML $1.42 (up .02)
Gold Coast +38.5 (up a point)
Gold Coast ML $5.50 (small)
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#14 Posted: 7/12/2012 3:18:52 AM | Geelong | | | v | Collingwood | | | Melbourne Cricket Ground | Jul 14 (Sat 7:40pm) | Cats +10.5 |
Oh yes....the second rematch of the 2011 Grand Final.
Ah, the memories. I had a great 2011 Grand Final. Made some money and was in 7th Heaven after 30 seconds when Varcoe hammered home the game's first goal. I had him at $21.00 to kick the first goal of the match. Went to bed the night before the GF and asked the gods to show me in my dreams the first goal kicker. Sure enough, I dreamt of the GF and saw a short, dark-skinned man in vertical hoops kicking the first goal. When I awoke, I had no doubt in my mind as to who that was and proceeded to hammer Varcoe First Goalkicker at $21.00. When my mates came over for the Grand Final and I told them about this wager and my vision, they laughed and laughed and while munching on some pretzels, asked me if I had any more beer.
Proceed to the first bounce and the tap to Varcoe and the kick. 30 seconds.
I was jumping on my couch like a chimpanzee beating my chest and my friends, who still hadn't fully realized the match had started, were in total shock that my $21.00 wager had hit.
30 seconds in and I had already made a rake.
Ah, the memories.
Don't believe me? It's recorded on Covers. Search for the thread.
And stay tuned for this year's Grand Final. Maybe I can repeat this bet?
ha!
Anyway, on to the matter at hand....
With two sides what you see is what you get. When one team get sup on the other at the beginning of a season, it usually holds true for the most part. So while you could expect a Collingwood win here, Geelong has been in better form as of late. This nullifies any type of edge I might see Collingwood with, although their sorry loss to Carlton last round might get them over here.
At any rate, I'm not going to delve too much further into this one and instead will let it pass.
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Django |
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#15 Posted: 7/12/2012 3:20:41 AM
I'm thinking I'm on the other side of the Roos and Blues. North always struggle against the good Melbourne sides and while Carlton had a major down swing after a flying start and aren't a top side if they could get it together to upset the Pies, they should be able to get the win, especially if North run out of legs around HT again.
Considering it's at Etihad, maybe over a total of 170-180 is the play. Would figure it's going to be a free running high scoring, unless Carlton turn it into a tackle slogfest.
I think I may bet the Suns points and ML too, that should go over 200 if it's a nice sunny Cairns day.
Considering Fremantle 1-39
Hawthorn to cover the -50 against the Dogs, Dogs off a woeful trip to W.A and Hawks play for percentage.
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#16 Posted: 7/12/2012 4:15:02 AM | Brisbane Lions | | | v | St Kilda | | | Gabba | Jul 14 (Sat 8:40pm) | Lions +13.5
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Am I liking this spot here.
While at first once wants to jump on the Saints. Better team, better coach, better recent history.....one might be a wee bit shunted at the short line. Brisbane plays well at the G and the Saints have been in poor form as of late.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say this is the match of the round in which the books are tempting the punters onto the favorite. Everyone likes themselves a little St. Kilda over the Brisbane and why not when it's only 13.5?
Brisbane has shown good ball control this season, even though it hasn't translated into the full results that they have hoped for. But I think this night it will be something worth watching. The short line in this match has me all the more convinced.
Brisbane +13.5
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#17 Posted: 7/12/2012 4:23:24 AM | GWS Giants | | | v | Adelaide | | | Skoda Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 1:10pm) | n00bs +70.5 |
Who knows? Who cares?
Adelaide has shown on the day that they can belt the best of teams. Will they be up for the Giants? Of course they will win, but will they be up to beat them by 71+? Yes, they can, but will they?
Who knows? Who cares?
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#18 Posted: 7/12/2012 4:36:53 AM | Western Bulldogs | | | v | Hawthorn | | | Etihad Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 3:15pm) | Dogs +49.5 |
This match STINKS. I don't like it. Hawks playing for percentage, Doggies playing for pride. Books set it at a nice Under/Over 50. Nice. Awesome.
???
While Hawthorn has been beatin' dat behind for weeks, why is this line then so short? Don't know but I've gotta sniff on the 1-39 instead.
Hawthorn 1-39 $2.75
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#19 Posted: 7/12/2012 11:07:42 AM | West Coast | | | v | Sydney | | | Patersons Stadium | Jul 15 (Sun 4:40pm) | Eagles +9.5 |
Annnnnnd the match of the round.
I have been waiting for this match for weeks. Circled and stamped. Much like the Hawthorn match, and then the Essendon match, all the commentators and promos were high on them being "grand final contenders" "prospective grand finalists" or "competition leaders." And then came the Swans who promptly mopped up both of them.
So a few weeks ago, I reckoned West Coast would be next in line. We have been hearing the same comments and promos that we heard about the Hawks and Bombers now said about the Eagles, just replace Hawthorn and Essendon with West Coast.
These two teams play the most consistently close matches in the league. Tight, evenly-matched games as usually these two sides play the same type of slow-tempoed, careful gameplan.
So basically, here we have the top team on the ladder having to lose by double-digits against a team which, if they lose to, historically is by single-digits. Uh-huh.
I smell winds of Hawthorn and Essendon......
Sydney +9.5
Sydney $2.30
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#20 Posted: 7/12/2012 11:09:56 AM
North Melbourne +5.5
North Melbourne ML $2.15
Fremantle -16.5
Fremantle ML $1.42
Gold Coast +38.5
Gold Coast ML $5.50
Brisbane +13.5
Hawthorn 1-39 $2.75
Sydney +9.5
Sydney $2.30
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rod_steel |
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#21 Posted: 7/12/2012 10:59:00 PM
Blues win last week can only be a positive to their flagging confidence and kick start their season again
I've taken the Blues in this one
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#22 Posted: 7/13/2012 12:22:58 AM Swans
Gold coast  |
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#23 Posted: 7/13/2012 4:07:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart: Final Round 16 Wagers
North Melbourne +5.5 
North Melbourne ML $2.15
Fremantle -16.5
Fremantle ML $1.42Gold Coast +38.5
Gold Coast ML $5.50
Brisbane +13.5Hawthorn 1-39 $2.75Sydney +9.5
Sydney $2.30
Another Blues Jekyll and Hyde roller coaster. The most mentally unstable team in the league. Ratten needs to get his head screwed on better if he expects a chance to feature in the Finals.
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#24 Posted: 7/13/2012 4:13:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rod_steel:
Kangaroos showed signs in that second half last week that they are reverting back to their bad habit of fading late in games after playing at a high level for the 2 weeks prior.
Blues win last week can only be a positive to their flagging confidence and kick start their season again
I've taken the Blues in this one
I agree that the Blues are the more talented of the two sides, Rod, but I just can't back them against any team that is mentally on-target. Roos are sloppy and I am sure give their supporters heartburn, but they keep charging and banging their heads against the brick wall without stopping. Sides like that will always trouble Carlton, no matter the disparity in on-field talent, in my humble opinion.
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rod_steel |
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#25 Posted: 7/13/2012 6:07:08 PM |
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