oh DOC!!!!!
In the last 4 Bowling Green has played 1-2 quality opponents (Ohio and a semi good Buffalo) Don't think Im saying Buffalo isn't good. but in that game playing at Ralph Wilson, I think the kids spent too much energy on the ProStadium hype. We see it every year, a home team plays in an arena or against an opponent and too much mojo is spent in the locker room and not on the field. Buffalo/BG was that game. EMU and M-OH are chumps. fantastic stats always get a big boost when playing against teams that cant find the endzone anyway (112 & 125 in scoring respectively). Last week the Falcons were in a must win situation to make tonight's game relevant. Its not the NCAA basketball tournament where you can ride a 3-4 game weekly high, its really hard to maintain that "Cinderella" mentality from week to week in football.
For the year, BG has just one win over a team in the conference with a +.500 conference record. (maybe two - just glanced at them) So of course their D looks solid on paper. NILL has 3 conf wins over teams with +.500 record and then tack on some FBS wins.
The line bumping up doesn't bother me at all. Just a stereotypical example of public $ coming in because of the Huskies notoriety, NOT because of analysis (but hey, im public $ too )
As far as the total goes, BG's OVERS were achieved in games where they did 90% of the scoring. They will not be allowed to hammer the NIU D line enough to match that effort. NILL just starts off so slow and methodical. Bang the line, Bang the line, Bang the line...then the wear down allows them to bust open some wounds in the 2nd half.
No injuries listed seem to concern me, any OUTS mentioned are "no new news" to me.
NILL -chalk, and UNDER
oh DOC!!!!!
In the last 4 Bowling Green has played 1-2 quality opponents (Ohio and a semi good Buffalo) Don't think Im saying Buffalo isn't good. but in that game playing at Ralph Wilson, I think the kids spent too much energy on the ProStadium hype. We see it every year, a home team plays in an arena or against an opponent and too much mojo is spent in the locker room and not on the field. Buffalo/BG was that game. EMU and M-OH are chumps. fantastic stats always get a big boost when playing against teams that cant find the endzone anyway (112 & 125 in scoring respectively). Last week the Falcons were in a must win situation to make tonight's game relevant. Its not the NCAA basketball tournament where you can ride a 3-4 game weekly high, its really hard to maintain that "Cinderella" mentality from week to week in football.
For the year, BG has just one win over a team in the conference with a +.500 conference record. (maybe two - just glanced at them) So of course their D looks solid on paper. NILL has 3 conf wins over teams with +.500 record and then tack on some FBS wins.
The line bumping up doesn't bother me at all. Just a stereotypical example of public $ coming in because of the Huskies notoriety, NOT because of analysis (but hey, im public $ too )
As far as the total goes, BG's OVERS were achieved in games where they did 90% of the scoring. They will not be allowed to hammer the NIU D line enough to match that effort. NILL just starts off so slow and methodical. Bang the line, Bang the line, Bang the line...then the wear down allows them to bust open some wounds in the 2nd half.
No injuries listed seem to concern me, any OUTS mentioned are "no new news" to me.
NILL -chalk, and UNDER
I am a long time reader, first time poster. I have been gambling for a long time and when I see this type of line movement (from -4.5 to -3) in less than an hour and against a public high flying team, you know that serios money is on BG. NO BRAINER!
I bet some at +4.5 and doubled up at +3....
I am a long time reader, first time poster. I have been gambling for a long time and when I see this type of line movement (from -4.5 to -3) in less than an hour and against a public high flying team, you know that serios money is on BG. NO BRAINER!
I bet some at +4.5 and doubled up at +3....
Mr. Zud.. I agree....and I would like to add a perspective to your insights.... I think Vegas is a speculator. like I said before, they have the playbook of every games especially in the NFL. I think the reason why sometime the public got burned because coaches do use odd against them to motivate the team to prepare more intensely. this theory doesn't seem to work on teams with weak leadership or they not riding any momentum. furthermore, if the media and public thinks that your team is going to lose BIG, and you do. then your job is at risk. this is probably the reason why huge dogs mostly covered, and 4-5 pts dogs get blown. I read Covers to get stats, but I half of the time I use situations. tonight for instance, if N Ill is fav by 6-7 pt,, I will take them. Scrambling QB is what I like.. Lynch have been running through holes and no one seem to give credit for his O linemen (Lynch will watch these guys play on Sunday). I notice that N Ill's methotology is to bang bang bang the defensive line to cause damage and eventually those holes open up. again, thanks to his linemen. and I think BG are able to show resistance of closin some of those holes tonight. if this is probably most lines open at 3. GL to all.
Mr. Zud.. I agree....and I would like to add a perspective to your insights.... I think Vegas is a speculator. like I said before, they have the playbook of every games especially in the NFL. I think the reason why sometime the public got burned because coaches do use odd against them to motivate the team to prepare more intensely. this theory doesn't seem to work on teams with weak leadership or they not riding any momentum. furthermore, if the media and public thinks that your team is going to lose BIG, and you do. then your job is at risk. this is probably the reason why huge dogs mostly covered, and 4-5 pts dogs get blown. I read Covers to get stats, but I half of the time I use situations. tonight for instance, if N Ill is fav by 6-7 pt,, I will take them. Scrambling QB is what I like.. Lynch have been running through holes and no one seem to give credit for his O linemen (Lynch will watch these guys play on Sunday). I notice that N Ill's methotology is to bang bang bang the defensive line to cause damage and eventually those holes open up. again, thanks to his linemen. and I think BG are able to show resistance of closin some of those holes tonight. if this is probably most lines open at 3. GL to all.
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