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QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

In my opinion, this is the toughest game to call for the entire bowl season. The disparity in talent and schedule appears to be enormously in favor of FSU ( the eye test ).  But my numbers are strongly biased toward NIU for this game.  The NIU QB had complicated things by talking trash to the media about how NIU will run all over FSU.  Not a great strategy if you are a MAC team but maybe he knows something we don't know.  Here are the numbers
1.  Consensus - 60% at SI on FSU would indicate a moderately good play on NIU
2.  Score Predictor - Makes FSU 31 - 28 winner, well within the pointspread to make a play  on NIU
3.  Sharp / Square ML Differential - A play on NIU here.  This indicator is now 8 - 1 in bowl games including Tulsa and Clemson yesterday.
4.  CE Differential - The sharper handicappers are favoring FSU by 11% which is moderately strong.  This indicator is only at 50% for the bowl season however.

I usually make a play on the dog or pass when bowl games are involved and this game is no exception. I can make a case for NIU based on the numbers despite my reservations from the " eye test" of looking at the teams in action.  NIU 1 unit only.

QUOTE Originally Posted by vacation:

These schools from middle of the road conferences that get into big time bowl games often get killed when going up against a major power program. FSU is one such program. FSU may be outside the top 10, it's still Florida State. Bigger conference, tougher schedule.

QUOTE Originally Posted by Tex-101:

I remember the 2008 Sugar Bowl.  Everyone was convinced Hawaii would give Georgia all it could handle, and win outright.  The caliper of talent on each team and who they played was dramatically different.  I see a similar scenario here.  Georgia won 41-10 and was leading 38-3 after 3Q's then took the foot off the gas.