Can't say I'm getting excited. This ain't Cheltenham! Problem is the switch to dirt hasn't captured the imagination of US owners and it has turned off Aiden O'Brien who hasn't bothered at all.
Chucked a few quid at Tonalist earlier in year and cannot understand why they chose to stay at home rather then compete for $10m. Crazy. Bayern (injury), Shared Belief (different targets), Toast of NY (injured) all missing but doesn't excuse the likes of Hoppertunity, Constitution, Tonalist not even bothering.
Weak field and can't have Lea at all over California Chrome. Chrome is the deserving favourite and already locked in on him a week ago at 5/2. Hokko Tarumae the Japanese Dirt horse is the other one I like and would play him for forecast. Only 9 runners but weak in depth and quality with only California Chrome the real top notcher in the field. Shiekh Hamdam coming out with the Meydan may not suit US horses is bollocks but Chrome has won on polytrack, turf and US dirt so can't imagine him NOT going on the surface.
Can't say I'm getting excited. This ain't Cheltenham! Problem is the switch to dirt hasn't captured the imagination of US owners and it has turned off Aiden O'Brien who hasn't bothered at all.
Chucked a few quid at Tonalist earlier in year and cannot understand why they chose to stay at home rather then compete for $10m. Crazy. Bayern (injury), Shared Belief (different targets), Toast of NY (injured) all missing but doesn't excuse the likes of Hoppertunity, Constitution, Tonalist not even bothering.
Weak field and can't have Lea at all over California Chrome. Chrome is the deserving favourite and already locked in on him a week ago at 5/2. Hokko Tarumae the Japanese Dirt horse is the other one I like and would play him for forecast. Only 9 runners but weak in depth and quality with only California Chrome the real top notcher in the field. Shiekh Hamdam coming out with the Meydan may not suit US horses is bollocks but Chrome has won on polytrack, turf and US dirt so can't imagine him NOT going on the surface.
Sheema Classic: Designs on Rome and Harp Star yet to win over 12f. They'll go slow here which is a concern for both's style of running though in theory that slower pace will help them get the trip. Flintshire looks a rock solid EW play at 9/2 but couldn't be very confident on him. Right prep, course will suit, fast ground is ideal and would be disappointed if he couldn't finish in the first three. For all of Harp Star's attractive profile, she is no Gentildonna who was much more consistent and classier though she retains the potential X factor to win an Arc that her rivals does not possess.
Dubai Turf: Between top two in the market Solow and The Grey Gatsby. Both showing better European standard of form then Mshawish had managed.The Grey Gatsby the best horse in the race BUT not confident 9f suits. Should beat these really but Solow is an improving horse and wonderfully versatile and still unexposed at shorter distances. Mshawish hasn't beaten much in the US and would be surprised if he's good enough to beat the top two. The Grey Gatsby would be my pick EW
Sheema Classic: Designs on Rome and Harp Star yet to win over 12f. They'll go slow here which is a concern for both's style of running though in theory that slower pace will help them get the trip. Flintshire looks a rock solid EW play at 9/2 but couldn't be very confident on him. Right prep, course will suit, fast ground is ideal and would be disappointed if he couldn't finish in the first three. For all of Harp Star's attractive profile, she is no Gentildonna who was much more consistent and classier though she retains the potential X factor to win an Arc that her rivals does not possess.
Dubai Turf: Between top two in the market Solow and The Grey Gatsby. Both showing better European standard of form then Mshawish had managed.The Grey Gatsby the best horse in the race BUT not confident 9f suits. Should beat these really but Solow is an improving horse and wonderfully versatile and still unexposed at shorter distances. Mshawish hasn't beaten much in the US and would be surprised if he's good enough to beat the top two. The Grey Gatsby would be my pick EW
Golden Shaheen: Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry heads the market but much prefer another US runner in Salutos Amigos who has the highest RPR of the field. Still unexposed and a late foal (April) he has more improvements then most and looks the one to beat rather then the established status quo of Rich Tapestry, Secret Circle and Lucky Nine.
UAE Derby: The market looks about right and between the top three in Mubtaahij, Maftool and Sir Fever. Sir Fever was unbeaten in Uruguay and there were hopes he was another Invasor. However he was beaten by Mubtaahij who beat MAftool and is a late foal which should mean he should improve furthermore. Not quite an EW price but cannot see him out of the first three.
Golden Shaheen: Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry heads the market but much prefer another US runner in Salutos Amigos who has the highest RPR of the field. Still unexposed and a late foal (April) he has more improvements then most and looks the one to beat rather then the established status quo of Rich Tapestry, Secret Circle and Lucky Nine.
UAE Derby: The market looks about right and between the top three in Mubtaahij, Maftool and Sir Fever. Sir Fever was unbeaten in Uruguay and there were hopes he was another Invasor. However he was beaten by Mubtaahij who beat MAftool and is a late foal which should mean he should improve furthermore. Not quite an EW price but cannot see him out of the first three.
Godolphin Mile: Bitterly disappointing turnout here with Tamarkuz a solid favourite with top class ratings on the dirt and little to beat. Whilst the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile is always run with small fields it's disappointing Prayer for Relief and Bradester is the best the Americans can come up with! Of the duo, Bradester comfortably my pick as well drawn and he can pop out and lead. He goes well fresh and will chase some place money that pays more then Tamarkuz for the win!
Dubai Gold Cup: Another disappointing turnout with Brown Panther heading the market. He finished down the field in the Breeders Cup turf but the ride he got just about affected the race from the very start. I was seething at the time as the European jockeys just about played into the hands of the Americans in every race following a slow pace like brainless lemmings! Stepped up in trip, it's difficult to see him being asked to make all as he has done in the past from his wide draw. I much prefer to take a chance on the unexposed Marcozzo who still retains his trainer Johnny Gosden despite the official change of trainer and he should be in the shakeup with stamina guaranteed. Not something I can say for the likes of Almoonqith and Dubday. Bathryhon hasn't run for a while but has the class to feature. Havana Beat is a big price and whilst not highly rated, has some useful form and is unexposed under these conditions of 2m and fast ground. Ahzeemah like Brown Panther are drawn out very wide and whilst the draw is not critical, they are vulnerable to improvers.
Godolphin Mile: Bitterly disappointing turnout here with Tamarkuz a solid favourite with top class ratings on the dirt and little to beat. Whilst the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile is always run with small fields it's disappointing Prayer for Relief and Bradester is the best the Americans can come up with! Of the duo, Bradester comfortably my pick as well drawn and he can pop out and lead. He goes well fresh and will chase some place money that pays more then Tamarkuz for the win!
Dubai Gold Cup: Another disappointing turnout with Brown Panther heading the market. He finished down the field in the Breeders Cup turf but the ride he got just about affected the race from the very start. I was seething at the time as the European jockeys just about played into the hands of the Americans in every race following a slow pace like brainless lemmings! Stepped up in trip, it's difficult to see him being asked to make all as he has done in the past from his wide draw. I much prefer to take a chance on the unexposed Marcozzo who still retains his trainer Johnny Gosden despite the official change of trainer and he should be in the shakeup with stamina guaranteed. Not something I can say for the likes of Almoonqith and Dubday. Bathryhon hasn't run for a while but has the class to feature. Havana Beat is a big price and whilst not highly rated, has some useful form and is unexposed under these conditions of 2m and fast ground. Ahzeemah like Brown Panther are drawn out very wide and whilst the draw is not critical, they are vulnerable to improvers.
Al Quoz Sprint: Tough looking race but the three to focus on are the Hong Kong sprinters Bundle Of Joy, Peniaphobia and Amber Sky. Amber Sky won this last year but has had issues since. Looks on the way back but he will do well to dominate this field. The draw is unknown but whichever Peniaphobia or Bundle of Joy are drawn close to the pace should be worth an EW bet in a wide open looking race.
Al Quoz Sprint: Tough looking race but the three to focus on are the Hong Kong sprinters Bundle Of Joy, Peniaphobia and Amber Sky. Amber Sky won this last year but has had issues since. Looks on the way back but he will do well to dominate this field. The draw is unknown but whichever Peniaphobia or Bundle of Joy are drawn close to the pace should be worth an EW bet in a wide open looking race.
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