4) Ring Weekend-its been a while since the Tampa Bay Derby had any relevance in the national scene and nothing about this horse, outside of breeding, makes me think this year is any different.
5- Bayern- despite the Thunder Gulch DNA, he doesn't seem to want anything beyond a mile, and it appears that he needs the front. If I could bet an a specific placing, I love this horse 5th.
6) Ria Antonia- Outside of her questionable placing in the BC Juv last Nov, this horse would be considered a disaster. 6 different jockeys, 3 different trainers, and one 6f win. Quote from the owner: "the girls are better than the boys this year, so she fits." My correction: Untapable is the best horse, the rest of the girls are ok.
9) Pablo Del Monte: Ward is great with the young ones and at Keeneland. His best race was 3rd at the Bluegrass. Not enough for me.
10) Ride on Curlin: I'm tossing at pure risk and for spite. He has 8 places in 10 starts so its a silly move, but I truly think this trainer highly overvalues this horse. He was the 8th betting choice in the Derby and finished 7. Had Borel taken him wide early and cost his chances by doing so, we would be hearing the same thing from the trainer re: the ride.
4) Ring Weekend-its been a while since the Tampa Bay Derby had any relevance in the national scene and nothing about this horse, outside of breeding, makes me think this year is any different.
5- Bayern- despite the Thunder Gulch DNA, he doesn't seem to want anything beyond a mile, and it appears that he needs the front. If I could bet an a specific placing, I love this horse 5th.
6) Ria Antonia- Outside of her questionable placing in the BC Juv last Nov, this horse would be considered a disaster. 6 different jockeys, 3 different trainers, and one 6f win. Quote from the owner: "the girls are better than the boys this year, so she fits." My correction: Untapable is the best horse, the rest of the girls are ok.
9) Pablo Del Monte: Ward is great with the young ones and at Keeneland. His best race was 3rd at the Bluegrass. Not enough for me.
10) Ride on Curlin: I'm tossing at pure risk and for spite. He has 8 places in 10 starts so its a silly move, but I truly think this trainer highly overvalues this horse. He was the 8th betting choice in the Derby and finished 7. Had Borel taken him wide early and cost his chances by doing so, we would be hearing the same thing from the trainer re: the ride.
1) Dynamic Impact: after sizzling through April, Casse is coming back to earth. With that said, I can see this horse getting a classic suck along trip and picking some pieces up late ala Musket Man a few years ago.
8) Social Inclusion: I like this horse. But I don't think there has ever been so much hype on a horse that outside of beating a horse that didn't even race in the Derby (Honor Code), has a 3rd place showing as his claim to fame. Could he pull a Shackleford? I guess, but the only way I see that happening is if Chrome's tank is empty and everyone else waits on Chrome to move, kind of like when D'Tara won Belmont and everyone was waiting for Big Brown.
Win Contenders:
2) General a Rod: Absolute pure hunch. I just think he is built for this distance. Just not sure if he is good enough.
3) California Chrome: What else can you say about a horse that has won 5 in a row, with arguably his worst performance of those wins, the win at the Derby!! The only reason I will play against is noted below.
7) Kid Cruz: I love love this horse the more I watch. His big strong strides seem to fit well with the expected setup in this race. But if you look at his lines, he closed into a .50 half in the Teso so he doesn't need a lightning pace. And his only loss since getting claimed was by 3/4 of a length after coming from 9 back. He's stepping up but a good horse is still a good horse.
1) Dynamic Impact: after sizzling through April, Casse is coming back to earth. With that said, I can see this horse getting a classic suck along trip and picking some pieces up late ala Musket Man a few years ago.
8) Social Inclusion: I like this horse. But I don't think there has ever been so much hype on a horse that outside of beating a horse that didn't even race in the Derby (Honor Code), has a 3rd place showing as his claim to fame. Could he pull a Shackleford? I guess, but the only way I see that happening is if Chrome's tank is empty and everyone else waits on Chrome to move, kind of like when D'Tara won Belmont and everyone was waiting for Big Brown.
Win Contenders:
2) General a Rod: Absolute pure hunch. I just think he is built for this distance. Just not sure if he is good enough.
3) California Chrome: What else can you say about a horse that has won 5 in a row, with arguably his worst performance of those wins, the win at the Derby!! The only reason I will play against is noted below.
7) Kid Cruz: I love love this horse the more I watch. His big strong strides seem to fit well with the expected setup in this race. But if you look at his lines, he closed into a .50 half in the Teso so he doesn't need a lightning pace. And his only loss since getting claimed was by 3/4 of a length after coming from 9 back. He's stepping up but a good horse is still a good horse.
I said it last week. Generally speaking, quality Derby horses going into the Preakness have won (Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I'll Have Another), been part of it when they have been beat by clearly better horses (Street Sense by Curlin, Mine that Bird by Rachel) or have inexplicably finished out of it (Orb, Super Saver). One exception is Animal Kingdom.
I don't see any horse better than Chrome, so I will not be playing him second or third except I will take a flyer on Kid Cruz beating him at the wire on a few tickets which will look like:
7/3/1,2,8
I do see him as a possible 'Derby' hangover candidate so many of my pick 3s and 4s will have 2s and 7s on the ticket, as well as a few tris.
I said it last week. Generally speaking, quality Derby horses going into the Preakness have won (Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I'll Have Another), been part of it when they have been beat by clearly better horses (Street Sense by Curlin, Mine that Bird by Rachel) or have inexplicably finished out of it (Orb, Super Saver). One exception is Animal Kingdom.
I don't see any horse better than Chrome, so I will not be playing him second or third except I will take a flyer on Kid Cruz beating him at the wire on a few tickets which will look like:
7/3/1,2,8
I do see him as a possible 'Derby' hangover candidate so many of my pick 3s and 4s will have 2s and 7s on the ticket, as well as a few tris.
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