Sherman's less than supportive comments about the Preakness got me thinking.
Looking at Preakness results since 2000, it would appear that, statistically, the Derby winner is either likely to win or finish out of the money. In other words, are we all in agreement that exhaustion really plays a factor here? A tired horse is less likely to finish in the money obviously.
There are some obvious exceptions (Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird) although in two of those cases, the Derby winner was beaten by a clearly better horse.
Do people think that CC is either top of ticket (that much better than the rest) or off the board?
Sherman's less than supportive comments about the Preakness got me thinking.
Looking at Preakness results since 2000, it would appear that, statistically, the Derby winner is either likely to win or finish out of the money. In other words, are we all in agreement that exhaustion really plays a factor here? A tired horse is less likely to finish in the money obviously.
There are some obvious exceptions (Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird) although in two of those cases, the Derby winner was beaten by a clearly better horse.
Do people think that CC is either top of ticket (that much better than the rest) or off the board?
Sherman's less than supportive comments about the Preakness got me thinking.
Looking at Preakness results since 2000, it would appear that, statistically, the Derby winner is either likely to win or finish out of the money. In other words, are we all in agreement that exhaustion really plays a factor here? A tired horse is less likely to finish in the money obviously.
There are some obvious exceptions (Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird) although in two of those cases, the Derby winner was beaten by a clearly better horse.
Do people think that CC is either top of ticket (that much better than the rest) or off the board?
He wins for fun ! I don't care what the trainer says. Didn't I'll Have Another have the same workload leading up to the Derby ?
Sherman's less than supportive comments about the Preakness got me thinking.
Looking at Preakness results since 2000, it would appear that, statistically, the Derby winner is either likely to win or finish out of the money. In other words, are we all in agreement that exhaustion really plays a factor here? A tired horse is less likely to finish in the money obviously.
There are some obvious exceptions (Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird) although in two of those cases, the Derby winner was beaten by a clearly better horse.
Do people think that CC is either top of ticket (that much better than the rest) or off the board?
He wins for fun ! I don't care what the trainer says. Didn't I'll Have Another have the same workload leading up to the Derby ?
This really isn't a CC will win or won't win debate.
It is solely about betting strategy.
In other words, if one is anti-CC, do they see it that he is simply beat by a better horse (and finishes 2nd or maybe 3rd) or completely off the board as an exhausted horse.
The Preakness has had some good recent payoffs when the favorite has been out of the money (Looking at Lucky, Oxbow).
This really isn't a CC will win or won't win debate.
It is solely about betting strategy.
In other words, if one is anti-CC, do they see it that he is simply beat by a better horse (and finishes 2nd or maybe 3rd) or completely off the board as an exhausted horse.
The Preakness has had some good recent payoffs when the favorite has been out of the money (Looking at Lucky, Oxbow).
As i said yesterday ill be playing against, but my main focus will be the pick 4 or pick 5. So i wont have him on any of those tickets, but i dont know that he finshes off the board. Have to see who else goes and where they draw.
As i said yesterday ill be playing against, but my main focus will be the pick 4 or pick 5. So i wont have him on any of those tickets, but i dont know that he finshes off the board. Have to see who else goes and where they draw.
Ive read there is 8 strong probables and that list didn't have Bayern on it. Ring Wknd, Kid Cruz, Pablo del Monte, Social Inclusion, Dynamic Impact, California Chrome, ROC, Commanding Curve
Also Rosario picks up the mount on ROC, who ran a pretty good Derby considering the horrible ride he got from Borel.
Ive read there is 8 strong probables and that list didn't have Bayern on it. Ring Wknd, Kid Cruz, Pablo del Monte, Social Inclusion, Dynamic Impact, California Chrome, ROC, Commanding Curve
Also Rosario picks up the mount on ROC, who ran a pretty good Derby considering the horrible ride he got from Borel.
If you watch DERBY replay, it is very obvious that CC "was' and "is" the BEST current 3yo......watch going into the first turn...CC wants to "blow" past frontrunners and Victor says to himself...."why"..I'll just sit around these so called frontrunners and we will stroll casually through the park for the next..six furlongs or so....
We need to start giving "credit" to all the connections assorted with this horse...I, for one, don't think they are nearly as "niave' AS THEY WANT US TO BELIEVE.....
If you watch DERBY replay, it is very obvious that CC "was' and "is" the BEST current 3yo......watch going into the first turn...CC wants to "blow" past frontrunners and Victor says to himself...."why"..I'll just sit around these so called frontrunners and we will stroll casually through the park for the next..six furlongs or so....
We need to start giving "credit" to all the connections assorted with this horse...I, for one, don't think they are nearly as "niave' AS THEY WANT US TO BELIEVE.....
If you watch DERBY replay, it is very obvious that CC "was' and "is" the BEST current 3yo......watch going into the first turn...CC wants to "blow" past frontrunners and Victor says to himself...."why"..I'll just sit around these so called frontrunners and we will stroll casually through the park for the next..six furlongs or so....
We need to start giving "credit" to all the connections assorted with this horse...I, for one, don't think they are nearly as "niave' AS THEY WANT US TO BELIEVE.....
Oh believe me, I WANT a TC winner. And I think this is a very good horse and a great story.
I'm not knocking him at all, merely asking that from a statistical standpoint, does it make sense to play him completely off tickets if the theory on exhaustion holds merit.
If you watch DERBY replay, it is very obvious that CC "was' and "is" the BEST current 3yo......watch going into the first turn...CC wants to "blow" past frontrunners and Victor says to himself...."why"..I'll just sit around these so called frontrunners and we will stroll casually through the park for the next..six furlongs or so....
We need to start giving "credit" to all the connections assorted with this horse...I, for one, don't think they are nearly as "niave' AS THEY WANT US TO BELIEVE.....
Oh believe me, I WANT a TC winner. And I think this is a very good horse and a great story.
I'm not knocking him at all, merely asking that from a statistical standpoint, does it make sense to play him completely off tickets if the theory on exhaustion holds merit.
these damn trainers(er..I mean politicians....) don't believe HALF of what you hear
Victor said after the race he "barely" used the horse.........but, he was "tiring" toward the end.....
Watch the replay, CC was held back all along....don't know if he can will Belmont...but I for, one, will be backing ANY odds OVER 4/5
Now if it goes any lower, this COULD be a very, very ,really USEFUL thread
Same was said about Orb, who had a very similar 3 yr old campaign has CC. The Preakness was a mere formallity for Orb and then he would go to his "home" track of Belmont and take the Triple Crown!!
When was the last time Orb won a race???
This conversation is pointless until the field is entered and post are drawn
these damn trainers(er..I mean politicians....) don't believe HALF of what you hear
Victor said after the race he "barely" used the horse.........but, he was "tiring" toward the end.....
Watch the replay, CC was held back all along....don't know if he can will Belmont...but I for, one, will be backing ANY odds OVER 4/5
Now if it goes any lower, this COULD be a very, very ,really USEFUL thread
Same was said about Orb, who had a very similar 3 yr old campaign has CC. The Preakness was a mere formallity for Orb and then he would go to his "home" track of Belmont and take the Triple Crown!!
When was the last time Orb won a race???
This conversation is pointless until the field is entered and post are drawn
What can you say, CC has to go for it. But asking any horse to race two weeks later is brutal. Any talk about Hoppertunity since all he had was a sore foot.
What can you say, CC has to go for it. But asking any horse to race two weeks later is brutal. Any talk about Hoppertunity since all he had was a sore foot.
Trainer Bob Baffert said that Chitu (ninth) would return to California. Baffert said that Hoppertunity, scratched from the Derby, needed further tests to determine what is nagging him, but is definitely out of the Preakness.
Baffert said that Bayern, disqualified from a win in the Derby Trial last time out, was his lone contender for the Preakness. He sizzled five furlongs in 58.20 at Churchill Downs on Monday.
Trainer Bob Baffert said that Chitu (ninth) would return to California. Baffert said that Hoppertunity, scratched from the Derby, needed further tests to determine what is nagging him, but is definitely out of the Preakness.
Baffert said that Bayern, disqualified from a win in the Derby Trial last time out, was his lone contender for the Preakness. He sizzled five furlongs in 58.20 at Churchill Downs on Monday.
We didn't see Chromes best race, he was above all other horses in the race and his figures were above par for the Derby. He pretty much ran a workout to win with Uncle Sigh setting a slow pace.
Obviously we have to see the full card before taking Chrome again but I think we'll see his best in the Preakness with a really good chance of winning. He could go off at 1-5 so all we can do is keep him the the exotics and bet others to place.
Just watch for late speed horses when the final card is out.
I'm pretty confident Commanding Curve will win the Belmont especially with the rest.
We didn't see Chromes best race, he was above all other horses in the race and his figures were above par for the Derby. He pretty much ran a workout to win with Uncle Sigh setting a slow pace.
Obviously we have to see the full card before taking Chrome again but I think we'll see his best in the Preakness with a really good chance of winning. He could go off at 1-5 so all we can do is keep him the the exotics and bet others to place.
Just watch for late speed horses when the final card is out.
I'm pretty confident Commanding Curve will win the Belmont especially with the rest.
Guys...I love CC. I picked him to win the Derby and the SA....no great fete on my part, but he was all the best to form.
I am just not sure he could win the Preakness with the speed in it.....NOT THAT HE CAN'T win, but in that bull ring in Baltimore just about anything can happen.
Bayern, for one.
That said, I think he wins the Belmont---if he goes based upon winning or losing in Maryland
Guys...I love CC. I picked him to win the Derby and the SA....no great fete on my part, but he was all the best to form.
I am just not sure he could win the Preakness with the speed in it.....NOT THAT HE CAN'T win, but in that bull ring in Baltimore just about anything can happen.
Bayern, for one.
That said, I think he wins the Belmont---if he goes based upon winning or losing in Maryland
Guys...I love CC. I picked him to win the Derby and the SA....no great fete on my part, but he was all the best to form.
I am just not sure he could win the Preakness with the speed in it.....NOT THAT HE CAN'T win, but in that bull ring in Baltimore just about anything can happen.
Bayern, for one.
That said, I think he wins the Belmont---if he goes based upon winning or losing in Maryland
Mikey Mikey Mikey ! That the Preakness is always won by a speed horse is not true. Second, he is a stalker not a pure front runner, Third, Bayern (yes I was wrong), is not in his league (couldn't win the Derby Trial and Forth, if he somehow lost ( he won't), no way he runs in the Belmont.
Guys...I love CC. I picked him to win the Derby and the SA....no great fete on my part, but he was all the best to form.
I am just not sure he could win the Preakness with the speed in it.....NOT THAT HE CAN'T win, but in that bull ring in Baltimore just about anything can happen.
Bayern, for one.
That said, I think he wins the Belmont---if he goes based upon winning or losing in Maryland
Mikey Mikey Mikey ! That the Preakness is always won by a speed horse is not true. Second, he is a stalker not a pure front runner, Third, Bayern (yes I was wrong), is not in his league (couldn't win the Derby Trial and Forth, if he somehow lost ( he won't), no way he runs in the Belmont.
You are right Rouse.....however, for him to win this race--two weeks after the Derby and with the speed in the Preak, it will not be an easy task. I am not sure if this will be the stalking trip he needs if it goes .21 or .22
You are right Rouse.....however, for him to win this race--two weeks after the Derby and with the speed in the Preak, it will not be an easy task. I am not sure if this will be the stalking trip he needs if it goes .21 or .22
Mikey Mikey Mikey ! That the Preakness is always won by a speed horse is not true. Second, he is a stalker not a pure front runner, Third, Bayern (yes I was wrong), is not in his league (couldn't win the Derby Trial and Forth, if he somehow lost ( he won't), no way he runs in the Belmont.
You know Bayern technically finished in front of all the other horses in the Derby trial right? You realize he ran a hell of a race and was very game in the stretch, just drifted out.
Bayern has every right to keep improving the Preakness will only be his 5th start and judging by his work on Monday he's going to be ready to go.
Mikey Mikey Mikey ! That the Preakness is always won by a speed horse is not true. Second, he is a stalker not a pure front runner, Third, Bayern (yes I was wrong), is not in his league (couldn't win the Derby Trial and Forth, if he somehow lost ( he won't), no way he runs in the Belmont.
You know Bayern technically finished in front of all the other horses in the Derby trial right? You realize he ran a hell of a race and was very game in the stretch, just drifted out.
Bayern has every right to keep improving the Preakness will only be his 5th start and judging by his work on Monday he's going to be ready to go.
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