Hugely interesting debate. It's the same everywhere in the world that a horse working well indicates a happy horse. Makes sense but the problem is the term "working well" is an opinion, not fact. It's subjective. I've come across a couple of horses in recent times who show actually nothing at home but come alive on the track. Both were allowed to go off huge prices for big stables in big races.
Is it applicable to raceday betting? I'm not so sure. In small claiming races and handicaps, perhaps so but in the truly big Group/Graded races, I find that in the UK all trainers are capable of getting a horse in peak condition for a given target. Aidan O'Brien won the Breeders Cup Turf with Magician after a long lay-off but there wasn't any information coming through on the UK side until we actually saw him on the day and he looked magnificent with his coat gleaming.
On Kentucky Derby day, we run our first Classics also with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Generally the winner won't have had a prep race at all! But then you look at Cheltenham and most winners will have had a calendar year prep run before the big Festival. We're used to betting and handicapping without reports generally relying on trainers' quotes.
If we got reports for every horses, then perhaps it is applicable. But generally the betting market over here tells its own story with Betfair exchanges an excellent source of information. But you have to read between the lines concerning the movement of odds. Obviously it works different in the States as every horses travel in advance of the race and works locally. The biggest difference is the acceptance of odds. If a horse is 16/1 4 hours before racetime, we can actually take and lock in those odds then accept the starting price.
But the bottom line: it's just opinions not fact. One watcher might think a horse is working well whilst another might not and one may only blog about it! How do we know? For all we know, a horse could be carrying more weight slowing him down whilst another is allowed to run as fast as he can?? DO we take that as "fact" or opinion. Do we trust his judgement?
Don't forget on the Flat there is breeding considerations too. No trainer is going to admit their horses have been working garbage and then proceed to run him in the big race! That opens the door to the animal rights brigade so that's another angle to be weary of.
I like this race and am still learning about it but I find that work reports whilst sounding very good in theory only bolsters or lessens confidence when it comes to Futures betting. On the day, I'm sure it plays its part in the decision making process. But I've been a fan of this sport to know there's been countless "talking" horses with big stable confidence behind them that has flopped and equally on the other side where I've written off a bet but am pleasantly surprised to see it run well and win despite negative reports!
If it was that easy it'd be an exact science. Every top speed figures would romp home in that order. I'll read the reports but how much weighting one places on those reports is up to each individual. Personally I think a marriage of profiling statistics, eye test and reports would likely be my MO in handicapping this race if betting raceday only. Good luck! Getting rather excited bout Guineas/Derby weekend! Roll on May!
Hugely interesting debate. It's the same everywhere in the world that a horse working well indicates a happy horse. Makes sense but the problem is the term "working well" is an opinion, not fact. It's subjective. I've come across a couple of horses in recent times who show actually nothing at home but come alive on the track. Both were allowed to go off huge prices for big stables in big races.
Is it applicable to raceday betting? I'm not so sure. In small claiming races and handicaps, perhaps so but in the truly big Group/Graded races, I find that in the UK all trainers are capable of getting a horse in peak condition for a given target. Aidan O'Brien won the Breeders Cup Turf with Magician after a long lay-off but there wasn't any information coming through on the UK side until we actually saw him on the day and he looked magnificent with his coat gleaming.
On Kentucky Derby day, we run our first Classics also with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Generally the winner won't have had a prep race at all! But then you look at Cheltenham and most winners will have had a calendar year prep run before the big Festival. We're used to betting and handicapping without reports generally relying on trainers' quotes.
If we got reports for every horses, then perhaps it is applicable. But generally the betting market over here tells its own story with Betfair exchanges an excellent source of information. But you have to read between the lines concerning the movement of odds. Obviously it works different in the States as every horses travel in advance of the race and works locally. The biggest difference is the acceptance of odds. If a horse is 16/1 4 hours before racetime, we can actually take and lock in those odds then accept the starting price.
But the bottom line: it's just opinions not fact. One watcher might think a horse is working well whilst another might not and one may only blog about it! How do we know? For all we know, a horse could be carrying more weight slowing him down whilst another is allowed to run as fast as he can?? DO we take that as "fact" or opinion. Do we trust his judgement?
Don't forget on the Flat there is breeding considerations too. No trainer is going to admit their horses have been working garbage and then proceed to run him in the big race! That opens the door to the animal rights brigade so that's another angle to be weary of.
I like this race and am still learning about it but I find that work reports whilst sounding very good in theory only bolsters or lessens confidence when it comes to Futures betting. On the day, I'm sure it plays its part in the decision making process. But I've been a fan of this sport to know there's been countless "talking" horses with big stable confidence behind them that has flopped and equally on the other side where I've written off a bet but am pleasantly surprised to see it run well and win despite negative reports!
If it was that easy it'd be an exact science. Every top speed figures would romp home in that order. I'll read the reports but how much weighting one places on those reports is up to each individual. Personally I think a marriage of profiling statistics, eye test and reports would likely be my MO in handicapping this race if betting raceday only. Good luck! Getting rather excited bout Guineas/Derby weekend! Roll on May!
This goes back to '93, it does. It doesn't have Orbs PPs.
If you check this link out you'll find that horses that win the Derby don't really run bad races during their 3 year old season, by bad race i mean finishing out of the top 4. Wicked Strong's 9th in the Holy Bull certainly was a bad race. Yes it was a GP a speed favoring track but the track wasn't sloppy that day and if he was good enough he could have overcame the speed bias enough to run better. There was really no excuse for his race that day.
I'm very skeptical of horses that do their best running in a certain place. It seems Wicked Strong is very comfortable in NY. One horse I can remember off the top of my head who was very comfortable in one place was Alpha. Great horse at any of the NY tracks but take him outside of NY and he was not very good!
Wicked Strong will certainly be over bet with the defections, unlike Roused I do not think 8-1 is a good price. I'm by no means saying he is a toss but if I was his trainer he would've shipped to Churchill the day after the Wood so he could get comfortable with his surroundings.
This goes back to '93, it does. It doesn't have Orbs PPs.
If you check this link out you'll find that horses that win the Derby don't really run bad races during their 3 year old season, by bad race i mean finishing out of the top 4. Wicked Strong's 9th in the Holy Bull certainly was a bad race. Yes it was a GP a speed favoring track but the track wasn't sloppy that day and if he was good enough he could have overcame the speed bias enough to run better. There was really no excuse for his race that day.
I'm very skeptical of horses that do their best running in a certain place. It seems Wicked Strong is very comfortable in NY. One horse I can remember off the top of my head who was very comfortable in one place was Alpha. Great horse at any of the NY tracks but take him outside of NY and he was not very good!
Wicked Strong will certainly be over bet with the defections, unlike Roused I do not think 8-1 is a good price. I'm by no means saying he is a toss but if I was his trainer he would've shipped to Churchill the day after the Wood so he could get comfortable with his surroundings.
I'm not saying the bad race angle projects to the rest of horses 3 year old season. Palace Malice ran 7th in the Louisiana Derby and won the Belmont, Oxbow finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and won the Preakness. However this bad race during a 3 year old season for whatever reason seems to hold true for the Derby
I'm not saying the bad race angle projects to the rest of horses 3 year old season. Palace Malice ran 7th in the Louisiana Derby and won the Belmont, Oxbow finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and won the Preakness. However this bad race during a 3 year old season for whatever reason seems to hold true for the Derby
This goes back to '93, it does. It doesn't have Orbs PPs.
If you check this link out you'll find that horses that win the Derby don't really run bad races during their 3 year old season, by bad race i mean finishing out of the top 4. Wicked Strong's 9th in the Holy Bull certainly was a bad race. Yes it was a GP a speed favoring track but the track wasn't sloppy that day and if he was good enough he could have overcame the speed bias enough to run better. There was really no excuse for his race that day.
I'm very skeptical of horses that do their best running in a certain place. It seems Wicked Strong is very comfortable in NY. One horse I can remember off the top of my head who was very comfortable in one place was Alpha. Great horse at any of the NY tracks but take him outside of NY and he was not very good!
Wicked Strong will certainly be over bet with the defections, unlike Roused I do not think 8-1 is a good price. I'm by no means saying he is a toss but if I was his trainer he would've shipped to Churchill the day after the Wood so he could get comfortable with his surroundings.
Did you hear Jerkins on TVG ! Shipping early to Churchill and will do several gallops and one workout.
This goes back to '93, it does. It doesn't have Orbs PPs.
If you check this link out you'll find that horses that win the Derby don't really run bad races during their 3 year old season, by bad race i mean finishing out of the top 4. Wicked Strong's 9th in the Holy Bull certainly was a bad race. Yes it was a GP a speed favoring track but the track wasn't sloppy that day and if he was good enough he could have overcame the speed bias enough to run better. There was really no excuse for his race that day.
I'm very skeptical of horses that do their best running in a certain place. It seems Wicked Strong is very comfortable in NY. One horse I can remember off the top of my head who was very comfortable in one place was Alpha. Great horse at any of the NY tracks but take him outside of NY and he was not very good!
Wicked Strong will certainly be over bet with the defections, unlike Roused I do not think 8-1 is a good price. I'm by no means saying he is a toss but if I was his trainer he would've shipped to Churchill the day after the Wood so he could get comfortable with his surroundings.
Did you hear Jerkins on TVG ! Shipping early to Churchill and will do several gallops and one workout.
i would rather have a horse that "stopped" or was so awful that you can draw a line on the race. the you know it was a fluke. look at the pp's https://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/wickedstrong5044_2.pdf
i would rather have a horse that "stopped" or was so awful that you can draw a line on the race. the you know it was a fluke. look at the pp's https://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/wickedstrong5044_2.pdf
You can't just throw the races out because your making excuses for the horse. He has no excuses for those races, he ran 1 terrible race and 1 ok race that's it. And isn't his last work at Belmont this Saturday or Sunday??? So how is he shipping early?? Horses are already working at CD those horses shipped early, he's shipping the week of
You can't just throw the races out because your making excuses for the horse. He has no excuses for those races, he ran 1 terrible race and 1 ok race that's it. And isn't his last work at Belmont this Saturday or Sunday??? So how is he shipping early?? Horses are already working at CD those horses shipped early, he's shipping the week of
@DRFGrening: J Jerkens said Wicked Strong would work here next Thur or Fri then van to Churchill shortly thereafter. JJ said horse has never flown before. Tweet from 4-17
@DRFGrening: J Jerkens said Wicked Strong would work here next Thur or Fri then van to Churchill shortly thereafter. JJ said horse has never flown before. Tweet from 4-17
All this being said I like Wicked Strong, I loved him before the Holy Bull and I got burnt. He's clearly a top contender in this terrible field(Harry's Holiday??? what a joke), but this race isn't in NY so I guess we'll see on May 3rd.
All this being said I like Wicked Strong, I loved him before the Holy Bull and I got burnt. He's clearly a top contender in this terrible field(Harry's Holiday??? what a joke), but this race isn't in NY so I guess we'll see on May 3rd.
You can't just throw the races out because your making excuses for the horse. He has no excuses for those races, he ran 1 terrible race and 1 ok race that's it. And isn't his last work at Belmont this Saturday or Sunday??? So how is he shipping early?? Horses are already working at CD those horses shipped early, he's shipping the week of
Are you kidding me ? How about Secretariat's Wood Memorial ? And explain this to me ! 6/15-9/4-11/1 https://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf
You can't just throw the races out because your making excuses for the horse. He has no excuses for those races, he ran 1 terrible race and 1 ok race that's it. And isn't his last work at Belmont this Saturday or Sunday??? So how is he shipping early?? Horses are already working at CD those horses shipped early, he's shipping the week of
Are you kidding me ? How about Secretariat's Wood Memorial ? And explain this to me ! 6/15-9/4-11/1 https://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf
Seriously with the Secrateriat reference??? YOUR A JOKE, he ran 3rd in the Wood. Maybe a bad race by his standards but not in general.
And again with 2 yr old races, that hopeful was ran in the slop which is a LEGIT EXCUSE! But once again 2 year old races mean nothing when it comes to 3 year old form....
Seriously with the Secrateriat reference??? YOUR A JOKE, he ran 3rd in the Wood. Maybe a bad race by his standards but not in general.
And again with 2 yr old races, that hopeful was ran in the slop which is a LEGIT EXCUSE! But once again 2 year old races mean nothing when it comes to 3 year old form....
he went off at 43-1 because for that race. here is how I win the argument. If I brought of all of these points (i was too stupid to do so :) prior to the Wood Memorial, I will have cased a nice ticket.
he went off at 43-1 because for that race. here is how I win the argument. If I brought of all of these points (i was too stupid to do so :) prior to the Wood Memorial, I will have cased a nice ticket.
he went off at 43-1 because for that race. here is how I win the argument. If I brought of all of these points (i was too stupid to do so :) prior to the Wood Memorial, I will have cased a nice ticket.
You're argument might have validity if WS wins the Derby or performes well. It is looking more and more like he will be with a group of 4 other horses for the second choice, so the expectation is that he finish within the top 6.
I will be playing against him.
As for Secretariat, it is pretty common historical knowledge that he had a bad tooth absess. How much it impacted his race I guess is a matter of opinion.
he went off at 43-1 because for that race. here is how I win the argument. If I brought of all of these points (i was too stupid to do so :) prior to the Wood Memorial, I will have cased a nice ticket.
You're argument might have validity if WS wins the Derby or performes well. It is looking more and more like he will be with a group of 4 other horses for the second choice, so the expectation is that he finish within the top 6.
I will be playing against him.
As for Secretariat, it is pretty common historical knowledge that he had a bad tooth absess. How much it impacted his race I guess is a matter of opinion.
At this point, I only have horses I don't like. I won't actually start the capping process until the final works and draw. I will not play a 1 or 2 draw unless that horse has previously shown he can scortch and rate.
As for horses I will be watching.. CC, Hopportunity, Candy Boy, and Medal Count. Horses I am sour on are Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, and Danza. CC has done no wrong in my book, but my issue, as with everyone else, is if there is any value in a 5/2 horse in a 20 horse field.
At this point, I only have horses I don't like. I won't actually start the capping process until the final works and draw. I will not play a 1 or 2 draw unless that horse has previously shown he can scortch and rate.
As for horses I will be watching.. CC, Hopportunity, Candy Boy, and Medal Count. Horses I am sour on are Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, and Danza. CC has done no wrong in my book, but my issue, as with everyone else, is if there is any value in a 5/2 horse in a 20 horse field.
oh, and I am not 100% sure on Wicked Strong. Bayern did have a monster workout today and Rajiv is my kryptonite
Classic ruse always leaving yourself a little wiggle room in case your wrong. I have respect for the people on here that commit to a horse and put their money where their mouth is. Qualities you lack.
oh, and I am not 100% sure on Wicked Strong. Bayern did have a monster workout today and Rajiv is my kryptonite
Classic ruse always leaving yourself a little wiggle room in case your wrong. I have respect for the people on here that commit to a horse and put their money where their mouth is. Qualities you lack.
Classic ruse always leaving yourself a little wiggle room in case your wrong. I have respect for the people on here that commit to a horse and put their money where their mouth is. Qualities you lack.
What a jerk. I need to know the whole field, track condition etc before making my final wager. Leaning on WS and Bayern.
Classic ruse always leaving yourself a little wiggle room in case your wrong. I have respect for the people on here that commit to a horse and put their money where their mouth is. Qualities you lack.
What a jerk. I need to know the whole field, track condition etc before making my final wager. Leaning on WS and Bayern.
At this point, I only have horses I don't like. I won't actually start the capping process until the final works and draw. I will not play a 1 or 2 draw unless that horse has previously shown he can scortch and rate.
As for horses I will be watching.. CC, Hopportunity, Candy Boy, and Medal Count. Horses I am sour on are Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, and Danza. CC has done no wrong in my book, but my issue, as with everyone else, is if there is any value in a 5/2 horse in a 20 horse field.
You don't like Dance, but like Medal Count ? Did you see the Bluegrass ? S
At this point, I only have horses I don't like. I won't actually start the capping process until the final works and draw. I will not play a 1 or 2 draw unless that horse has previously shown he can scortch and rate.
As for horses I will be watching.. CC, Hopportunity, Candy Boy, and Medal Count. Horses I am sour on are Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, and Danza. CC has done no wrong in my book, but my issue, as with everyone else, is if there is any value in a 5/2 horse in a 20 horse field.
You don't like Dance, but like Medal Count ? Did you see the Bluegrass ? S
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