12/1 ml. recency, pattern, breeding, trainer. i'm taking a shot here in this bulky field full of horses stretching out to 9F with a couple of virgins from high profile connections. the ones that have more than two spins have not been improving and they have struggled late in the lane and/or not fired late. this 4 took a step forward last out for a patient trainer and even with a goofy ride wasn't that far out of it chasing a winner that walked on the lead and sprinted home. comes back in about five weeks with three drills and stretches out and showed a lil more zip in her recent drills which were all on dirt. i'm projecting she is working into a higher fitness level. all the sibs won on the green multiple times one ran a 90 and one other ran a 95. sibs are 16/34 overall on the lawn in the exacta. i'll give her a shot. 0.75 units.
12/1 ml. recency, pattern, breeding, trainer. i'm taking a shot here in this bulky field full of horses stretching out to 9F with a couple of virgins from high profile connections. the ones that have more than two spins have not been improving and they have struggled late in the lane and/or not fired late. this 4 took a step forward last out for a patient trainer and even with a goofy ride wasn't that far out of it chasing a winner that walked on the lead and sprinted home. comes back in about five weeks with three drills and stretches out and showed a lil more zip in her recent drills which were all on dirt. i'm projecting she is working into a higher fitness level. all the sibs won on the green multiple times one ran a 90 and one other ran a 95. sibs are 16/34 overall on the lawn in the exacta. i'll give her a shot. 0.75 units.
it's playable in my view with a big field but these N2L races tend to have a zillion variables and i see that here. i see why they'll hammer this 3 but not me the horse has competitive figs but he was right there last out and he didn't get it done and now goes out further. this 11 takes a pretty big drop off a layoff but hasn't fired since june of 2012 and that was around one turn. they all are unreliable. i'll just pass. gun to my head i would try the 1.
it's playable in my view with a big field but these N2L races tend to have a zillion variables and i see that here. i see why they'll hammer this 3 but not me the horse has competitive figs but he was right there last out and he didn't get it done and now goes out further. this 11 takes a pretty big drop off a layoff but hasn't fired since june of 2012 and that was around one turn. they all are unreliable. i'll just pass. gun to my head i would try the 1.
6/1 ml. pace, pattern, distance, speed. this race appears to me to have little early or middle zip aside from the 2 and 7 and i'm fading the 2 at this distance. like how this 7 fires consistently off the bench and like how he's wired fields or ran a stalk/pounce at this 9F and distances beyond that including an 11F race last out. six solid drills for this for a trainer that is 25% off a 61-180 day break. last time off a similar length break he ran a 97 crushing a restricted stakes field at 9.5F and he didn't walk he went 1:11 and change up front. steps up but he has run numbers that would get it done. looking for the jock to either take it right to them or sit just off the 2 and start sprinting home from the quarter pole. i'll land here and see if he can steal this as he's got the tools to do that. 1.0 units.
6/1 ml. pace, pattern, distance, speed. this race appears to me to have little early or middle zip aside from the 2 and 7 and i'm fading the 2 at this distance. like how this 7 fires consistently off the bench and like how he's wired fields or ran a stalk/pounce at this 9F and distances beyond that including an 11F race last out. six solid drills for this for a trainer that is 25% off a 61-180 day break. last time off a similar length break he ran a 97 crushing a restricted stakes field at 9.5F and he didn't walk he went 1:11 and change up front. steps up but he has run numbers that would get it done. looking for the jock to either take it right to them or sit just off the 2 and start sprinting home from the quarter pole. i'll land here and see if he can steal this as he's got the tools to do that. 1.0 units.
1 - fading based on speed, distance, late speed, class.
2 - fading based on distance and late speed but he should fire i just see him getting nabbed late.
3 - fading based on recency, late speed, pattern, and class.
4 - wildcard. if he improves second off the bench he could be charging home late. fourteen lifetime spins and never beat a 94 and that 94 was on a course rated good. i'll play that he doesn't have enough for this race.
5 - legit fav. i'll take my chances that this distance is just a tad too far for him to fire his best shot. very strong recency. should fire and run hard.
6 - could be pretty tough but been away a long time and hasn't run a competitive fig yet on firm turf with a legit pace. last out he got a 100 but christ he set the pace at 1:15 and change i can't lean on that number. he could win but i'll take my chances.
1 - fading based on speed, distance, late speed, class.
2 - fading based on distance and late speed but he should fire i just see him getting nabbed late.
3 - fading based on recency, late speed, pattern, and class.
4 - wildcard. if he improves second off the bench he could be charging home late. fourteen lifetime spins and never beat a 94 and that 94 was on a course rated good. i'll play that he doesn't have enough for this race.
5 - legit fav. i'll take my chances that this distance is just a tad too far for him to fire his best shot. very strong recency. should fire and run hard.
6 - could be pretty tough but been away a long time and hasn't run a competitive fig yet on firm turf with a legit pace. last out he got a 100 but christ he set the pace at 1:15 and change i can't lean on that number. he could win but i'll take my chances.
10/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, surface. couple of toughies in here this is the G1 Donn for older fellas but none of them look like superstars at this distance to me. i'll take a shot this guy can do something similar to last out. that race was slow early but they picked it up meaningfully after the opening quarter and he was right there and drew away with energy. this crew lacks early and middle zip so he might find himself right there and even clear hitting the quarter pole. 2/3 last spins on the main track were pretty successful and now Mott keeps him there, stretches out, and tries a G1. distance is obviously an question mark but i liked how he was moving late last out. 1.0 units.
10/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, surface. couple of toughies in here this is the G1 Donn for older fellas but none of them look like superstars at this distance to me. i'll take a shot this guy can do something similar to last out. that race was slow early but they picked it up meaningfully after the opening quarter and he was right there and drew away with energy. this crew lacks early and middle zip so he might find himself right there and even clear hitting the quarter pole. 2/3 last spins on the main track were pretty successful and now Mott keeps him there, stretches out, and tries a G1. distance is obviously an question mark but i liked how he was moving late last out. 1.0 units.
12/1 ml. recency, pattern, breeding, trainer. i'm taking a shot here in this bulky field full of horses stretching out to 9F with a couple of virgins from high profile connections. the ones that have more than two spins have not been improving and they have struggled late in the lane and/or not fired late. this 4 took a step forward last out for a patient trainer and even with a goofy ride wasn't that far out of it chasing a winner that walked on the lead and sprinted home. comes back in about five weeks with three drills and stretches out and showed a lil more zip in her recent drills which were all on dirt. i'm projecting she is working into a higher fitness level. all the sibs won on the green multiple times one ran a 90 and one other ran a 95. sibs are 16/34 overall on the lawn in the exacta. i'll give her a shot. 0.75 units.
4th at 8/1. horse fired distance too much. fade next out if 9F or 8.5F consider at shorter but not at a low price.
12/1 ml. recency, pattern, breeding, trainer. i'm taking a shot here in this bulky field full of horses stretching out to 9F with a couple of virgins from high profile connections. the ones that have more than two spins have not been improving and they have struggled late in the lane and/or not fired late. this 4 took a step forward last out for a patient trainer and even with a goofy ride wasn't that far out of it chasing a winner that walked on the lead and sprinted home. comes back in about five weeks with three drills and stretches out and showed a lil more zip in her recent drills which were all on dirt. i'm projecting she is working into a higher fitness level. all the sibs won on the green multiple times one ran a 90 and one other ran a 95. sibs are 16/34 overall on the lawn in the exacta. i'll give her a shot. 0.75 units.
4th at 8/1. horse fired distance too much. fade next out if 9F or 8.5F consider at shorter but not at a low price.
6/1 ml. pace, pattern, distance, speed. this race appears to me to have little early or middle zip aside from the 2 and 7 and i'm fading the 2 at this distance. like how this 7 fires consistently off the bench and like how he's wired fields or ran a stalk/pounce at this 9F and distances beyond that including an 11F race last out. six solid drills for this for a trainer that is 25% off a 61-180 day break. last time off a similar length break he ran a 97 crushing a restricted stakes field at 9.5F and he didn't walk he went 1:11 and change up front. steps up but he has run numbers that would get it done. looking for the jock to either take it right to them or sit just off the 2 and start sprinting home from the quarter pole. i'll land here and see if he can steal this as he's got the tools to do that. 1.0 units.
2nd at 4/1. horse fired very well have no idea why he was in last early but that allowed the 38/1 bomb to sneak away
6/1 ml. pace, pattern, distance, speed. this race appears to me to have little early or middle zip aside from the 2 and 7 and i'm fading the 2 at this distance. like how this 7 fires consistently off the bench and like how he's wired fields or ran a stalk/pounce at this 9F and distances beyond that including an 11F race last out. six solid drills for this for a trainer that is 25% off a 61-180 day break. last time off a similar length break he ran a 97 crushing a restricted stakes field at 9.5F and he didn't walk he went 1:11 and change up front. steps up but he has run numbers that would get it done. looking for the jock to either take it right to them or sit just off the 2 and start sprinting home from the quarter pole. i'll land here and see if he can steal this as he's got the tools to do that. 1.0 units.
2nd at 4/1. horse fired very well have no idea why he was in last early but that allowed the 38/1 bomb to sneak away
10/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, surface. couple of toughies in here this is the G1 Donn for older fellas but none of them look like superstars at this distance to me. i'll take a shot this guy can do something similar to last out. that race was slow early but they picked it up meaningfully after the opening quarter and he was right there and drew away with energy. this crew lacks early and middle zip so he might find himself right there and even clear hitting the quarter pole. 2/3 last spins on the main track were pretty successful and now Mott keeps him there, stretches out, and tries a G1. distance is obviously an question mark but i liked how he was moving late last out. 1.0 units.
gulfstream
5/1 winner. sometimes it works out perfectly. recency, pace, pattern, surface.
ROI +115% +3.15 units
really busy lately hopefully i can play all day on Santa Anita Handicap day.
10/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, surface. couple of toughies in here this is the G1 Donn for older fellas but none of them look like superstars at this distance to me. i'll take a shot this guy can do something similar to last out. that race was slow early but they picked it up meaningfully after the opening quarter and he was right there and drew away with energy. this crew lacks early and middle zip so he might find himself right there and even clear hitting the quarter pole. 2/3 last spins on the main track were pretty successful and now Mott keeps him there, stretches out, and tries a G1. distance is obviously an question mark but i liked how he was moving late last out. 1.0 units.
gulfstream
5/1 winner. sometimes it works out perfectly. recency, pace, pattern, surface.
ROI +115% +3.15 units
really busy lately hopefully i can play all day on Santa Anita Handicap day.
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