Posted: 9/15/2012 11:42:24 AM
one spot play. maybe a chance to take down a fav.
G1 Garden City 3YO Fillies 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Turf)
ebx 1, 5, 7 (bombs if the favs flop)
5/1 ml. think she could drift up to 7/1ish as they pound Chad's horse. the question marks are 1) she's jumping right off the plane basically and running, 2) hasn't run since July 22nd, and 3) the times of her races have been very slow relative to the U.S.
I like her based on distance, stamina, pattern and projecting late speed relative to this field at this distance. has strong races at nine, ten, and eleven furlongs on turf and synthetic. improving pattern where three of her last four Racing Post Ratings are 105, 105, and 109 (had been in the upper 80's in two prior races) and all three of those races were against older gals. all of her turf races have been on turf rated heavy, soft, or good. the courses are boggy over there and include up and downhill portions in many cases. comparing the final times is tough. it's possible she simply isn't fast enough but in my humble view this is not a very strong field at this distance in terms of speed. she carried 138 pounds in a field of 15 and just missed by 3/4 of a length going a mile and a quarter on good turf (carries 118 today and I am not big on weights but the fact is she gets a big weight break today). trainer is 40% first time he gets a new horse (2/5 small sample size but he does put her right into a G1 here and he is 18% overall on the lawn). she gets firm turf and nine furlongs today (has run well on synthetic courses rated fast). there is enough data for me at 5/1 or higher to give her a shot to make a good dent late in this race at this distance when I look at the other options.
ok, so why would I swing against these favs?
3 - they'll pound her based on the neck miss at the Spa, Chad Brown's name, and Dominguez. she is a G1 winner but that was a flat mile. distance is a concern for me worth swinging against I think she ran evenly late last out and that was 8.5 furlongs
6 - G1 winner on polyfluff in merry go round race and won on the lawn in N3X at nine panels. not convinced she is a world beater in terms of speed willing to swing against but she'll be bet quite a bit
4 - don't like the pattern. she just doesn't seem to fire. prolly won't fall apart but not sold on her winning but she'll get bet
2 - distance red flag for me and trainer overly ambitious
5 and 7 upset specials perhaps.