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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Saratoga Race Course - 8/18 and 8/19 (Live from The Spa)
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:12:40 AM

cross it off my bucket list I made it to The Spa

little different strategy gonna play it conservatively as my filly has never been to the races and I want to limit the risk.  one unit will be divided to 0.25 to W, 0.25 to P, and 0.50 to S when the odds are in agreement.  if we think a fav is legit and price acceptable then WP only.  little four horse tri boxes as well unless an odds on fav is highly likely to run first or second and kill the tri.  playing the late P4.

yes i realize this type of wagering limits the upside.

some I am considering in numeric order not preference (yes I realize who is the likely fav and why).  i don't like to post 4 numbers and then after the fact claim i hit a race.  these are for debate among the others.

race 1 - shitty race might pass but gun to my head 5, 7, 8 (minimal value)

race 2 - 5 6 7 14 15 (if 14 or 15 sneak in off AE)

race 3 - pass.  impossible to cap these it's a lottery ticket

race 4 - 3 4 6

race 5 - might pass.  expect 3 to be a terrible fav but could win since they all suck.

race 6 - pass.  field of 14 in an N2L on the lawn.  eight of them look just like each other.  not my type of race.  maybe play a crazy tribox as a lottery ticket.

race 7 - 5 and 7.  mcclaughlin's horse one of the favs but seems fishy to me.  the horse from Parx has the figs but i am a little suspicious.

race 8 - 1 2 5 11 (real toughie here big field)

race 9 - 1 2 9

race 10 - 1 3 5 6.  the Alabama the obvious favs based on speed figs i feel might regress with added distance whereas i see the 1 and 5 potentially improving with added ground.  can't decide yet

race 11 - they all are very iffy but i gotta decide on something if I am playing the P4. so 5 and 1A.  hoping 1A gets in could have a little value

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#2
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:14:23 AM
gl today champ 
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#3
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:17:21 AM

anyone have an interesting bomb for the late P4?  something not obvious in the Daily Racing Form?

splids - you gonna swing away at this late P4?  field sizes are plump even with some scratches (haven't seen those yet).  i don't see any 3/5's winning in this sequence. 

 

lean:

1 2 5 11

1 2 9

1 3 5 6

5 1A

feel i need more coverage in races 8 and 11.  11 could be a chalk or could be a huge bomb.  tough one. 

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#4
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:19:47 AM

thanks H.  i'll post while there assuming the mobile thing works.

 

you like anything?

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#5
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:28:35 AM
That's awesome.  Have a great time there today. 

I'm working on it now.  I was waiting to see if the rain last night was going to affect the turf races today, but it looks like all systems are go.  I'll get back to you
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#6
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:30:25 AM

atlas..enjoy the day brother!!! I'm headed out in a little while to play Arlington, the SPA & Monmouth.

As far as the 8th race, you may want to take a 2nd look @ # 6 Count Catamount. He likes the SPA & the distance. Will get a price as well with Castro off & bug Wilmer Garcia.

Bring home some cash....

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#7
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:39:46 AM

good points Mids.  he also has the drug dealer as the trainer.  leaning he can get gobbled up late against tougher horses here than he has been facing but with Rudy and the needle maybe it's his day.  thanks brother.

can you post your Arlington?  i printed the Spa from formulatir yesterday but I will grab the form at the track.  during the garbage races i'll look at the graded stakes at Arlington.

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#8
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:42:02 AM
See you have the #6 Holden On in the 4th which tells me that you saw he ran against Spurious Precision. Love to see you have Dr.Kimmel's firster as well as Pletcher's 600k colt with that bullet about 2 weeks ago.
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#9
Posted: 8/18/2012 10:52:26 AM

Well, Julien & Ramon are @ Arlington & there's ton of talk about the Euro's entered in the stakes. Things don't get real interesting until the 7th so I'll start there.

R7, #8 Jakkalberry will go off @ 6-5. I like #5 Lake Drop & #7 Game Ball who can run all day at teh end.

R8, I like #2 Summer Front. Watched his last race & this guy has another gear. Like him with #4 Finnegan's Wake, Bayrir & #8 Silver Max.

R9, leaning towards #2 Leading astray.

R10. boxing #3 Romacaca, #5 Mystical Star & #8 Marketing Mix.

R11 I have a hunch that Ramon will try to set slowe fractions with #4 Little Mike & he may take them all the way. I'll be boxing him with #2 Boisterious & #3 Afsare.

Hope these make us some....

Gotta go...  

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#10
Posted: 8/18/2012 11:39:18 AM
Shrugger..

rc1.....5,10,9
rc2.....7,9,11,1
rc4.......6,4
rc5......9,1

I haven't done well at the Spa so far tho............have some cold ones and enjoy the day regardless 
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#11
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:05:50 PM
First impression - small, quaint, stylish, very cool.

So much smaller than Santa Anita in terms of the size of the grandstand.

Perfect weather. Let's hit some.
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#12
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:34:19 PM
Race 1 on the 7

Tri 4, 7, 8, 10
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#13
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:44:52 PM
I'm with H in Race 5, like the #9 at a price.  The 10 was a big scratch, Rosie should be close to the front, especially with the blinkers on today.

Race 6 - should be a nice price as well, going with the #10

Race 8-  #5 with Joel, perfect horse for his style and this horse has faced way better than anyone in here.  I don't like layoff horses that much, but there's enough speed in here to run at.  Midnight is right about the #6, likes this course and I saw his last race.

Race 9- Turbo had an easy trip on the front last time, I think Newsdad will be close enough to not let that happen today.  For me it's all about the #2 Point of Entry

Race 10- You cap these races better than me, but I like the #1 and the #5

Race 11- I like the #3 at a price.  Throw out the last 2 races, bad start and 1 1/4 was too far and those speed figures fit here.

4 5 6

2

1 5

3 6




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#14
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:50:27 PM
Splids - you think al khali can nail them going a mile and a half?
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#15
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:57:46 PM
I don't really like the 0 for 6 at the distance, but I could see him getting up for 2nd.  I like Alvarado on him better than Garcia who had him last year
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#16
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:05:38 PM
2nd. P and s covered tiny tribox. Itty bitty profit.
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#17
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:10:53 PM

My .02 and no offense meant or implied JMO.

SPA

5- 5

6- 2

7- 2

8- 1

9- 2

10- 6

No opinion on the rest.

Hope ya cash and impress the filly!

 

 

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#18
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:20:41 PM
Race 2 on the 5. No tri.

Good luck 315
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#19
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:36:47 PM
Objection???? That winner pinched in our guy
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#20
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:39:05 PM
Yes he did
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#21
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:39:08 PM
2nd at 12/1. Not bad. Got bumped.

Mcclaughlin 2nd time out. Pattern, trainer, breeding. Lone start sucked but good trainer.
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#22
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:41:33 PM
Yes he did
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#23
Posted: 8/18/2012 2:01:39 PM
Race 3 passing. Arlington million 3 and 9 I'll prolly play the 3 if he stays 6/1 or higher. Looks solid on distance/stamina.
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#24
Posted: 8/18/2012 2:18:54 PM
Race 4 on the 3. Hoping he stays 5/1 or higher. Looks fit and ready but debut at 7/8ths is tough. Don't like the ones with experience.
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#25
Posted: 8/18/2012 2:48:59 PM
4th at 7/1. Got a bit tired. Pletchs odds on chalk barely won.

Race 5 going with the 4.
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