rough times for the CDS part of the newsletter although HJS returned with a huge week so there's always some valuable NFL information offered in the penalty box.
the bad news, or perhaps it is good news, is that i don't have time today for the newsletter and may not the rest of the week.
i'm not yet throwing in the towel. as bad as the picks have been, and even worse has been the picks i've missed, i'll still be making picks unless and until it becomes a lost cause this season. clearly, i don't know what the f*ck is going on with these teams but i'll try and get it together. it might just be one of those seasons, which fortunately i haven't had in a while.
anyway, you're only as good as your record, and it sucks.
i will try at least to spend some time looking at the lines and coming up with some initial reactions.
rough times for the CDS part of the newsletter although HJS returned with a huge week so there's always some valuable NFL information offered in the penalty box.
the bad news, or perhaps it is good news, is that i don't have time today for the newsletter and may not the rest of the week.
i'm not yet throwing in the towel. as bad as the picks have been, and even worse has been the picks i've missed, i'll still be making picks unless and until it becomes a lost cause this season. clearly, i don't know what the f*ck is going on with these teams but i'll try and get it together. it might just be one of those seasons, which fortunately i haven't had in a while.
anyway, you're only as good as your record, and it sucks.
i will try at least to spend some time looking at the lines and coming up with some initial reactions.
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
St. Louis and their new found Todd Gurley led ground game vs. the Brownies and their dead last rushing defense? What could possibly go wrong? I know that Jeff Fisher hates me as much as I despise him, but I already bought into the Rams @ -4.5 because I thought this line was a full field goal shy of what it should be. I still believe it although I already feel like Professor Fisher has his hands on my wallet. I'd still play it at the current 5.5. It's in many respects the biggest mismatch of the weekend, but you can never ignore the "Lousy/Overrated Coach Factor."
St. Louis and their new found Todd Gurley led ground game vs. the Brownies and their dead last rushing defense? What could possibly go wrong? I know that Jeff Fisher hates me as much as I despise him, but I already bought into the Rams @ -4.5 because I thought this line was a full field goal shy of what it should be. I still believe it although I already feel like Professor Fisher has his hands on my wallet. I'd still play it at the current 5.5. It's in many respects the biggest mismatch of the weekend, but you can never ignore the "Lousy/Overrated Coach Factor."
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
rough times for the CDS part of the newsletter although HJS returned with a huge week so there's always some valuable NFL information offered in the penalty box.
the bad news, or perhaps it is good news, is that i don't have time today for the newsletter and may not the rest of the week.
i'm not yet throwing in the towel. as bad as the picks have been, and even worse has been the picks i've missed, i'll still be making picks unless and until it becomes a lost cause this season. clearly, i don't know what the f*ck is going on with these teams but i'll try and get it together. it might just be one of those seasons, which fortunately i haven't had in a while.
anyway, you're only as good as your record, and it sucks.
i will try at least to spend some time looking at the lines and coming up with some initial reactions.
With a mere six weeks of the season gone, it's a mistake to even think about throwing in the towel. You'll figure it out.
rough times for the CDS part of the newsletter although HJS returned with a huge week so there's always some valuable NFL information offered in the penalty box.
the bad news, or perhaps it is good news, is that i don't have time today for the newsletter and may not the rest of the week.
i'm not yet throwing in the towel. as bad as the picks have been, and even worse has been the picks i've missed, i'll still be making picks unless and until it becomes a lost cause this season. clearly, i don't know what the f*ck is going on with these teams but i'll try and get it together. it might just be one of those seasons, which fortunately i haven't had in a while.
anyway, you're only as good as your record, and it sucks.
i will try at least to spend some time looking at the lines and coming up with some initial reactions.
With a mere six weeks of the season gone, it's a mistake to even think about throwing in the towel. You'll figure it out.
bws, i hardly even look at totals. try to focus on sides. i will say that before the carolina game, i saw that wagner was out and he's big for that defense. it wasn't enough to take me off seattle but i was worried. their defense garbage the bed. who knows how much of a factor that was. but, i read today that he should be back tomorrow. and that hyde and boldin are hurt so SF might have a hard timke scoring.
bws, i hardly even look at totals. try to focus on sides. i will say that before the carolina game, i saw that wagner was out and he's big for that defense. it wasn't enough to take me off seattle but i was worried. their defense garbage the bed. who knows how much of a factor that was. but, i read today that he should be back tomorrow. and that hyde and boldin are hurt so SF might have a hard timke scoring.
the old lady went to bed early. how about a night newsletter?
if you are going to read it, you have to listen to this first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmtQwtcaqLM
Buffalo v. Jax +6 another london game. Jax is a mess, but they are used to the london game as the nfl ships them off there every year. i'm not going to bother to look but maybe someone can see or remember how they usually do out there. i pretty much never bet the london games because it's hard to tell how teams will react to this trip. buffalo has struggled for the last 3 weeks so it might be good for them to get away. jax just went through a stretch of 3 winnable games and lost all three. this is probably tougher than any of those three so hard to figure they come out any better but these are two struggling teams going to london so it's not worth betting in my opinion.
Cleveland @ Stl -5.5 we said we thought Cleveland might give denver their first loss last week. they almost did, but we diodn't bet it so that prediction doesn't mean much. i was worried about cleveland's offense against denver's defense and the line was only 3.5 at gametime and they did struggle pretty badly on offense but denver's offense is so bad at times they kept cleveland in the game. but you have to give Cleveland credit, they've played a fairly difficult schedule and have only been blown out once.
but they will get blown out here and there if they don't run the ball which they haven't been doing well recently. mccown cannot carry this team against good defenses.
rams coming off a bye. their defense has held up pretty well after game one. their offense has been the problem but should be better with gurley healthy now. i think the rams are going to turn into a decent team. cleveland plays hard but don't like them on the road here without a running game. this is cleveland's 3rd road game of 4, they've been across the country and play a rested rams team in the dome. i'd lean to the rams here.
the old lady went to bed early. how about a night newsletter?
if you are going to read it, you have to listen to this first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmtQwtcaqLM
Buffalo v. Jax +6 another london game. Jax is a mess, but they are used to the london game as the nfl ships them off there every year. i'm not going to bother to look but maybe someone can see or remember how they usually do out there. i pretty much never bet the london games because it's hard to tell how teams will react to this trip. buffalo has struggled for the last 3 weeks so it might be good for them to get away. jax just went through a stretch of 3 winnable games and lost all three. this is probably tougher than any of those three so hard to figure they come out any better but these are two struggling teams going to london so it's not worth betting in my opinion.
Cleveland @ Stl -5.5 we said we thought Cleveland might give denver their first loss last week. they almost did, but we diodn't bet it so that prediction doesn't mean much. i was worried about cleveland's offense against denver's defense and the line was only 3.5 at gametime and they did struggle pretty badly on offense but denver's offense is so bad at times they kept cleveland in the game. but you have to give Cleveland credit, they've played a fairly difficult schedule and have only been blown out once.
but they will get blown out here and there if they don't run the ball which they haven't been doing well recently. mccown cannot carry this team against good defenses.
rams coming off a bye. their defense has held up pretty well after game one. their offense has been the problem but should be better with gurley healthy now. i think the rams are going to turn into a decent team. cleveland plays hard but don't like them on the road here without a running game. this is cleveland's 3rd road game of 4, they've been across the country and play a rested rams team in the dome. i'd lean to the rams here.
Houston @ Miami -4 i was thinking this line would be higher. after miami got an easy win, people tend to assume a team they all thought would be good this year "is back", especially playing a weak opponent like houston. i was thinking coser to 6. not saying they deserve that but a little surprise to see miami isn't inflated here.
a little tempted by miami here. part of the problem was clearly philbin and miami not running the ball. they ran well last week and won easily. of course they were playing the titans and mariota got hurt, but it was still an easy win. we said miami was overrated this year but they are probably not a 2-3 team either.
houston is kind of in the same boat. bad team, underachieving, got an easy win but against a terrible team. but they had hoyer having a nice game, which shouldn't happen often, and foster is still not producing. i think he got hurt. like cleveland, i don't see houston doing much without a running game as hoyer won't carry this team against decent defenses. i can see houston struggling on offense in this one and their defense has not been good enough to keep close in games against decent teams. lean to miami.
NYJ @ NE -9 as i told cacabware, one way i know i not on the same page as past years is not taking indy last week. NE was -8.5 at dallas the week before when dallas had nothing on offense and major injuries and NE was well rested. this past week, they were -10 at some point against a better indy team (at least right now) with luck back. that's the definition of line value but we didn't play it. that's a bad sign for CDS subscribers.
anyway, you couls say that this 9 is a little high as the jets are certainly stronger than indy and dallas right now. however, a couple of things concern me here. one, the jets have only played one true road game and it ws against a team NE just beat pretty easily and could have easily covered the 10. two, NYJ have been winning with defense and running the ball. NE is great at taking things away from the other team and if they can slow the jets' running game, the jets will be a disaster relying on fitzpatrick too much. i'm sure the patriots will try and do that.. of course the jets ave a great defense but i'm not sure how much that matters the way brady and that offense are playing.
i think 9 is too much based on the last 2 weeks but to me, this comes down to whether the jets can run the ball or have to use fitzpatrick. if they run well, they should stay within 9, might even win. if they don't, NE can easily win by 14 or more.
Houston @ Miami -4 i was thinking this line would be higher. after miami got an easy win, people tend to assume a team they all thought would be good this year "is back", especially playing a weak opponent like houston. i was thinking coser to 6. not saying they deserve that but a little surprise to see miami isn't inflated here.
a little tempted by miami here. part of the problem was clearly philbin and miami not running the ball. they ran well last week and won easily. of course they were playing the titans and mariota got hurt, but it was still an easy win. we said miami was overrated this year but they are probably not a 2-3 team either.
houston is kind of in the same boat. bad team, underachieving, got an easy win but against a terrible team. but they had hoyer having a nice game, which shouldn't happen often, and foster is still not producing. i think he got hurt. like cleveland, i don't see houston doing much without a running game as hoyer won't carry this team against decent defenses. i can see houston struggling on offense in this one and their defense has not been good enough to keep close in games against decent teams. lean to miami.
NYJ @ NE -9 as i told cacabware, one way i know i not on the same page as past years is not taking indy last week. NE was -8.5 at dallas the week before when dallas had nothing on offense and major injuries and NE was well rested. this past week, they were -10 at some point against a better indy team (at least right now) with luck back. that's the definition of line value but we didn't play it. that's a bad sign for CDS subscribers.
anyway, you couls say that this 9 is a little high as the jets are certainly stronger than indy and dallas right now. however, a couple of things concern me here. one, the jets have only played one true road game and it ws against a team NE just beat pretty easily and could have easily covered the 10. two, NYJ have been winning with defense and running the ball. NE is great at taking things away from the other team and if they can slow the jets' running game, the jets will be a disaster relying on fitzpatrick too much. i'm sure the patriots will try and do that.. of course the jets ave a great defense but i'm not sure how much that matters the way brady and that offense are playing.
i think 9 is too much based on the last 2 weeks but to me, this comes down to whether the jets can run the ball or have to use fitzpatrick. if they run well, they should stay within 9, might even win. if they don't, NE can easily win by 14 or more.
Minn @ Detroit +2.5 detroit tried to lose for us last week giving up a couple of leads but they somehow managed to push at 3. they played about how they usually do though. bad defense for the most part, no running game to speak of but stafford only threw one INT so they were in a position to win. nothing special about that win though. looks like the same old detroit etam.
took a gamble, so to speak, going against minn last week and KC played better but couldn't score enough without charles and didn't cover. minn wasn't great as peterson had a below average day meaning bridgeweater had to play better and he didn't. peterson might be hurt. if he is, this team shouldn't be road favorites. if he's ok, detroit is bad enough on defense and poorly coached so that minn should win if they play pretty well. it's very hard to take detroit the way they are playing in so many areas and their coaching is so bad. always dangerous to take a road favorite in the division, but if minn is healthy, they should win this game.
Atl @ Tenn off this is off because mariota hurt his knee and is questionable. Atl came back down to earth looking like Atl of old letting brees carve them up. they were fine as usual on offense but fumbles killed them. i'd be hesitant to take Atl as a road favorite but their offense has been so good, it's hard to imagine Ten will keep up if mariota is out. then again, he's a rookie so even if he plays, it'll be hard to keep up.
of course, it all depends on what the line is. if mariota is out, which he should be, their backup really sucks. he should do better at home against Atl's defense but i'd say the line should be Atl -5 with no mariota. with mariota, maybe 3.5
Tb @ Wash -3.5 the one we got right easily last week was wash. a terrible QB and offense on the road against a great defense. you had to figure cousins would darn that up and he did. this one is much easier playing a qb who is more mistake prone than cousins, at home, against a bad defense. washington should be able to run the ball, keep cousins limited and stay ahead of TB. i would never bet TB against a good defense with winson at QB without getting a loit more points than this.
i don't really trust washington's defense but they have done fairly well against some good offenses so far. if they can cause problems for winston, they should cover. ultimately, i see this like the jets., if TB can run the ball with martin and take it easy with winson, they can win. if wash can run the ball and not use cousins much, they should win. i tend to side with wash as they have played better defense so far and are at home.
Minn @ Detroit +2.5 detroit tried to lose for us last week giving up a couple of leads but they somehow managed to push at 3. they played about how they usually do though. bad defense for the most part, no running game to speak of but stafford only threw one INT so they were in a position to win. nothing special about that win though. looks like the same old detroit etam.
took a gamble, so to speak, going against minn last week and KC played better but couldn't score enough without charles and didn't cover. minn wasn't great as peterson had a below average day meaning bridgeweater had to play better and he didn't. peterson might be hurt. if he is, this team shouldn't be road favorites. if he's ok, detroit is bad enough on defense and poorly coached so that minn should win if they play pretty well. it's very hard to take detroit the way they are playing in so many areas and their coaching is so bad. always dangerous to take a road favorite in the division, but if minn is healthy, they should win this game.
Atl @ Tenn off this is off because mariota hurt his knee and is questionable. Atl came back down to earth looking like Atl of old letting brees carve them up. they were fine as usual on offense but fumbles killed them. i'd be hesitant to take Atl as a road favorite but their offense has been so good, it's hard to imagine Ten will keep up if mariota is out. then again, he's a rookie so even if he plays, it'll be hard to keep up.
of course, it all depends on what the line is. if mariota is out, which he should be, their backup really sucks. he should do better at home against Atl's defense but i'd say the line should be Atl -5 with no mariota. with mariota, maybe 3.5
Tb @ Wash -3.5 the one we got right easily last week was wash. a terrible QB and offense on the road against a great defense. you had to figure cousins would darn that up and he did. this one is much easier playing a qb who is more mistake prone than cousins, at home, against a bad defense. washington should be able to run the ball, keep cousins limited and stay ahead of TB. i would never bet TB against a good defense with winson at QB without getting a loit more points than this.
i don't really trust washington's defense but they have done fairly well against some good offenses so far. if they can cause problems for winston, they should cover. ultimately, i see this like the jets., if TB can run the ball with martin and take it easy with winson, they can win. if wash can run the ball and not use cousins much, they should win. i tend to side with wash as they have played better defense so far and are at home.
NO @ Indy -4.5 the saints have been one of the few teams we've done well with or against. didn't mess with them last week as they were the thursday game but weren't surprised to see Atl come back down to earth. despite that win, the saints are terrible. that's why they are +4.5 against a team that has no good wins and only one win by more tha 4.5 points. so, you have to ask, why would you take indy -4.5 against a better rested team that looked pretty good last week when they've only covered that number once? i wouldn't.
Oak @ SD -4 fuckin chargers, i've lost badly with them twice. and last week, i swear i was this close to betting them live +17 against GB and couldn't pull the trigger. they finally played some defense and their OL held up much better than against Pitt and they almost won that game. so, there's that, they played better defense and their OL looked better. but, and this is weird to say, but oakland has some serious players on their DL with mack and smith. better than anything GB has and comparable to heyward on pitt. so, i'd look for oakland to take advantage of their mismatch against SD's oline.
that's probably the key to the game, oakland's defens,e particularly their dline. they have played good defense the last three games. then again, playing at SD is much tougher for their defense than cleveland and denver. SD can score against anyone. so, i think 4 is a good line for oakland if they can pressure rivers like pitt did. if not, they'll give up near 30 and they might be able to keep up but i wouldn't bet on it.
Dallas @ NYG -3.5 what? the giants are horrible. one good win against buffalo and now they are 3+ favorites against dallas? sure dallas has issues but we'll have to see who is playing. in any case, this is still a big game for both teams and it's hard to take NYG at more than 3 they way they've played the last two weeks.
on the other hand, last week against philly they were just off and made a lot of stupid mistakes they shouldn't repeat. they should come back stronger at home and dallas did beat them in week one and it is difficult to beat a team twice in such a short period of time. i suppose that's why this is 3.5 and not 3. i can see why people would like the giants here but the extra 1/2 point seems excessive.
NO @ Indy -4.5 the saints have been one of the few teams we've done well with or against. didn't mess with them last week as they were the thursday game but weren't surprised to see Atl come back down to earth. despite that win, the saints are terrible. that's why they are +4.5 against a team that has no good wins and only one win by more tha 4.5 points. so, you have to ask, why would you take indy -4.5 against a better rested team that looked pretty good last week when they've only covered that number once? i wouldn't.
Oak @ SD -4 fuckin chargers, i've lost badly with them twice. and last week, i swear i was this close to betting them live +17 against GB and couldn't pull the trigger. they finally played some defense and their OL held up much better than against Pitt and they almost won that game. so, there's that, they played better defense and their OL looked better. but, and this is weird to say, but oakland has some serious players on their DL with mack and smith. better than anything GB has and comparable to heyward on pitt. so, i'd look for oakland to take advantage of their mismatch against SD's oline.
that's probably the key to the game, oakland's defens,e particularly their dline. they have played good defense the last three games. then again, playing at SD is much tougher for their defense than cleveland and denver. SD can score against anyone. so, i think 4 is a good line for oakland if they can pressure rivers like pitt did. if not, they'll give up near 30 and they might be able to keep up but i wouldn't bet on it.
Dallas @ NYG -3.5 what? the giants are horrible. one good win against buffalo and now they are 3+ favorites against dallas? sure dallas has issues but we'll have to see who is playing. in any case, this is still a big game for both teams and it's hard to take NYG at more than 3 they way they've played the last two weeks.
on the other hand, last week against philly they were just off and made a lot of stupid mistakes they shouldn't repeat. they should come back stronger at home and dallas did beat them in week one and it is difficult to beat a team twice in such a short period of time. i suppose that's why this is 3.5 and not 3. i can see why people would like the giants here but the extra 1/2 point seems excessive.
Philly @ Carolina -3.5 continuing with the giants/philly game, was philly that much better or was this just a terrible game for the giants. maybe a little of both, but philly definitely looked good on defense and in the running game. bradford is still a mess. but, philly has quietly put together one of the better defenses in the league. if they can get murray going, they will be hard to beat as long as bradford throws to players on his own team. maybe people don't trust philly because bradford but philly might be the better team here and getting 3.5 looks pretty good.
we were excited to bet against carolina last week thinking seattle was thei rfirst real test and first major road game. it looked like a good bet for a while but carolina played well in the second half and seattle fell apart. thew question is whether carolina is legit or seattle just has serious problems. i'm tempted to test my theory again and take these 3.5 points with the idea that philly has a top defense, solid running game and bradford please don't darn it up. and carolina is weaker on offense and maybe about even on defense so the 3.5 points look pretty good.
@ AZ -10 both of these teams fucked me last week. well, the shrimps didn;.t they just suck. i'd be more pissed about taking them but i scratched off buffalo to do it so it really didn't make a difference. pretty sad to lose that badly to SF though.
I'm not sure what AZ's problem was. i don't get how Pitt is winning the turnover battle two weeks in a row with vick and jones going against hall of fame level veteran qb's. but, it's costing me bets. of course, last week was more than turnovers, AZ just didn't play well on offense or defense. i imagine they'll be better back at home against a team that has nothing. that being said, 10 is a lot here. as bad as the shrimps are, they have lost by 6, 4, 4, 3 and 5. i wouldn't be quick to bet against them at 10. something definitely was not right with AZ last week and if that carries over, they won't cover 10.
looks like i missed one
Pitt @ KC as i said, i don't get how Pitt is winning these games and not turning the ball over and playing good defense. heyward is a stud but the rest of this defense is nothing special. bell is probably te best rb in the league but you shouldn't be winning in the nfl if you have no qb and vick is like having no qb. i guess this is off because jones or maybe roethlisberger will start. if it's jones, i say the line should be KC -1. i just don't see them winning 3 in a row.
KC has real problems but at home against jones and a defense that shouldn't be very good should not be too much of a problem. if roethlisberger starts, this offense can be great and i wouldn't bet against them unless they were big favorites but if it's jones or vick, i think their luck might run out on the road here.
Philly @ Carolina -3.5 continuing with the giants/philly game, was philly that much better or was this just a terrible game for the giants. maybe a little of both, but philly definitely looked good on defense and in the running game. bradford is still a mess. but, philly has quietly put together one of the better defenses in the league. if they can get murray going, they will be hard to beat as long as bradford throws to players on his own team. maybe people don't trust philly because bradford but philly might be the better team here and getting 3.5 looks pretty good.
we were excited to bet against carolina last week thinking seattle was thei rfirst real test and first major road game. it looked like a good bet for a while but carolina played well in the second half and seattle fell apart. thew question is whether carolina is legit or seattle just has serious problems. i'm tempted to test my theory again and take these 3.5 points with the idea that philly has a top defense, solid running game and bradford please don't darn it up. and carolina is weaker on offense and maybe about even on defense so the 3.5 points look pretty good.
@ AZ -10 both of these teams fucked me last week. well, the shrimps didn;.t they just suck. i'd be more pissed about taking them but i scratched off buffalo to do it so it really didn't make a difference. pretty sad to lose that badly to SF though.
I'm not sure what AZ's problem was. i don't get how Pitt is winning the turnover battle two weeks in a row with vick and jones going against hall of fame level veteran qb's. but, it's costing me bets. of course, last week was more than turnovers, AZ just didn't play well on offense or defense. i imagine they'll be better back at home against a team that has nothing. that being said, 10 is a lot here. as bad as the shrimps are, they have lost by 6, 4, 4, 3 and 5. i wouldn't be quick to bet against them at 10. something definitely was not right with AZ last week and if that carries over, they won't cover 10.
looks like i missed one
Pitt @ KC as i said, i don't get how Pitt is winning these games and not turning the ball over and playing good defense. heyward is a stud but the rest of this defense is nothing special. bell is probably te best rb in the league but you shouldn't be winning in the nfl if you have no qb and vick is like having no qb. i guess this is off because jones or maybe roethlisberger will start. if it's jones, i say the line should be KC -1. i just don't see them winning 3 in a row.
KC has real problems but at home against jones and a defense that shouldn't be very good should not be too much of a problem. if roethlisberger starts, this offense can be great and i wouldn't bet against them unless they were big favorites but if it's jones or vick, i think their luck might run out on the road here.
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
Same ole story, team wins sb & then a few players think they are the team, want more money, messes up chemistry, then week after week they get opposing teams best shot, injuries occur, then they are not the same.Only team i see that dodges this is those Pats. I do see some value in a + 7 here.
Seattle @ SF +6.5/7 we lost with both of these teams last week. the bet against SF was more a bet on the shrimps thinking they had a favorable matchup at under 3 but it doesn't look like there is a favorable matchup for the shrimps this season unless they get relegated to the CFL or something. seattle had a nice lead and i bet them thinking their defense would bring home the cover. that was their specialty two years ago, closing games out. but, their defense fell apart and carolina put two long drive together to not just get the cover but the win.
now, to this game. the line is too high. seattle is a few inches and then a terrible no call away from 1-5. they have looked bad recently and seemed confused on defense. they are clearly the better team here but they aren't playing like it so i'm not sure they deserve to be fairly big favorites on the road on a short week. SF has been fairly unpredictable so they could play well or get blown out. seattle has been consistently pretty bad, at least for them, so i don't see any value in SF.
not sure i'll play it, but i wouldn't be comfortable laying 6.5 or 7 on the road here.
Same ole story, team wins sb & then a few players think they are the team, want more money, messes up chemistry, then week after week they get opposing teams best shot, injuries occur, then they are not the same.Only team i see that dodges this is those Pats. I do see some value in a + 7 here.
Same ole story, team wins sb & then a few players think they are the team, want more money, messes up chemistry, then week after week they get opposing teams best shot, injuries occur, then they are not the same.Only team i see that dodges this is those Pats. I do see some value in a + 7 here.
very true, i'm just surprised this team is basically 1-5 if not for that detroit fiasco. if they don't beat up on SF tonight, there's definitely some problems that aren't going away. this is only their third game against a bad team. they are 2-0 but should be 1-1.
Same ole story, team wins sb & then a few players think they are the team, want more money, messes up chemistry, then week after week they get opposing teams best shot, injuries occur, then they are not the same.Only team i see that dodges this is those Pats. I do see some value in a + 7 here.
very true, i'm just surprised this team is basically 1-5 if not for that detroit fiasco. if they don't beat up on SF tonight, there's definitely some problems that aren't going away. this is only their third game against a bad team. they are 2-0 but should be 1-1.
Last on the shrunkin Shrimps, week before last they bought in some cb from Krogers and Cap threw for a season high as has 3 others this year.This week they picked up another from oh lets say from the county dump and he they will be facing a veteran qb coming off a loss and looking to get back on track.My guess is that Shrimps will be able to stop Cards run game giving Palmer even more reason to throw the ball.
Last on the shrunkin Shrimps, week before last they bought in some cb from Krogers and Cap threw for a season high as has 3 others this year.This week they picked up another from oh lets say from the county dump and he they will be facing a veteran qb coming off a loss and looking to get back on track.My guess is that Shrimps will be able to stop Cards run game giving Palmer even more reason to throw the ball.
Posting my plays now because I'm contemplating getting out of town for a few days.
Buff -4. I'm not sure what happened to the Bills D last week, but there's been no shortage of complaining from their front 4 this week regarding them being asked to drop into coverage as opposed to just getting after the QB. My guess is that Rex let's 'em fly this week.
St Louis -6. Not comfortable laying this many with Rams, but for some reason I'm going to do it anyway. (how's that for sound reasoning?)
Mia -5. I'm riding the 'born-again' Dolphins until they adjust the lines accordingly.
Jets +7.5. Ball control will be the name of the game here. Ivory runs for 150+
Tenn +6, ML. Atl might be 2-1 on the road, but upon close inspection they should be 1-2, with the win being against an injury ravaged Cowboy team (and Weeden put up 28 points on them). The Falcons long chronicled road woes continue. Marriotta-less Titans for the win.
Dal +3.5, ML. I'm confident that Dez will not play, but the Cowboys defense should be at full strength for the first time all year. Dallas front vs NY O-line is a mismatch. Eli won't have time to hit a hobbled Beckham down field. If Gregory plays, as expected, look for him to have a few big plays.
Philly +3.5. Basing this small play on nothing more than a letdown spot for Panthers.
Posting my plays now because I'm contemplating getting out of town for a few days.
Buff -4. I'm not sure what happened to the Bills D last week, but there's been no shortage of complaining from their front 4 this week regarding them being asked to drop into coverage as opposed to just getting after the QB. My guess is that Rex let's 'em fly this week.
St Louis -6. Not comfortable laying this many with Rams, but for some reason I'm going to do it anyway. (how's that for sound reasoning?)
Mia -5. I'm riding the 'born-again' Dolphins until they adjust the lines accordingly.
Jets +7.5. Ball control will be the name of the game here. Ivory runs for 150+
Tenn +6, ML. Atl might be 2-1 on the road, but upon close inspection they should be 1-2, with the win being against an injury ravaged Cowboy team (and Weeden put up 28 points on them). The Falcons long chronicled road woes continue. Marriotta-less Titans for the win.
Dal +3.5, ML. I'm confident that Dez will not play, but the Cowboys defense should be at full strength for the first time all year. Dallas front vs NY O-line is a mismatch. Eli won't have time to hit a hobbled Beckham down field. If Gregory plays, as expected, look for him to have a few big plays.
Philly +3.5. Basing this small play on nothing more than a letdown spot for Panthers.
Posting my plays now because I'm contemplating getting out of town for a few days.
Buff -4. I'm not sure what happened to the Bills D last week, but there's been no shortage of complaining from their front 4 this week regarding them being asked to drop into coverage as opposed to just getting after the QB. My guess is that Rex let's 'em fly this week.
St Louis -6. Not comfortable laying this many with Rams, but for some reason I'm going to do it anyway. (how's that for sound reasoning?)
Mia -5. I'm riding the 'born-again' Dolphins until they adjust the lines accordingly.
Jets +7.5. Ball control will be the name of the game here. Ivory runs for 150+
Tenn +6, ML. Atl might be 2-1 on the road, but upon close inspection they should be 1-2, with the win being against an injury ravaged Cowboy team (and Weeden put up 28 points on them). The Falcons long chronicled road woes continue. Marriotta-less Titans for the win.
Dal +3.5, ML. I'm confident that Dez will not play, but the Cowboys defense should be at full strength for the first time all year. Dallas front vs NY O-line is a mismatch. Eli won't have time to hit a hobbled Beckham down field. If Gregory plays, as expected, look for him to have a few big plays.
Philly +3.5. Basing this small play on nothing more than a letdown spot for Panthers.
Posting my plays now because I'm contemplating getting out of town for a few days.
Buff -4. I'm not sure what happened to the Bills D last week, but there's been no shortage of complaining from their front 4 this week regarding them being asked to drop into coverage as opposed to just getting after the QB. My guess is that Rex let's 'em fly this week.
St Louis -6. Not comfortable laying this many with Rams, but for some reason I'm going to do it anyway. (how's that for sound reasoning?)
Mia -5. I'm riding the 'born-again' Dolphins until they adjust the lines accordingly.
Jets +7.5. Ball control will be the name of the game here. Ivory runs for 150+
Tenn +6, ML. Atl might be 2-1 on the road, but upon close inspection they should be 1-2, with the win being against an injury ravaged Cowboy team (and Weeden put up 28 points on them). The Falcons long chronicled road woes continue. Marriotta-less Titans for the win.
Dal +3.5, ML. I'm confident that Dez will not play, but the Cowboys defense should be at full strength for the first time all year. Dallas front vs NY O-line is a mismatch. Eli won't have time to hit a hobbled Beckham down field. If Gregory plays, as expected, look for him to have a few big plays.
Philly +3.5. Basing this small play on nothing more than a letdown spot for Panthers.
Minn @ Detroit +2.5 detroit tried to lose for us last week giving up a couple of leads but they somehow managed to push at 3. they played about how they usually do though. bad defense for the most part, no running game to speak of but stafford only threw one INT so they were in a position to win. nothing special about that win though. looks like the same old detroit etam.
took a gamble, so to speak, going against minn last week and KC played better but couldn't score enough without charles and didn't cover. minn wasn't great as peterson had a below average day meaning bridgeweater had to play better and he didn't. peterson might be hurt. if he is, this team shouldn't be road favorites. if he's ok, detroit is bad enough on defense and poorly coached so that minn should win if they play pretty well. it's very hard to take detroit the way they are playing in so many areas and their coaching is so bad. always dangerous to take a road favorite in the division, but if minn is healthy, they should win this game.
Atl @ Tenn off this is off because mariota hurt his knee and is questionable. Atl came back down to earth looking like Atl of old letting brees carve them up. they were fine as usual on offense but fumbles killed them. i'd be hesitant to take Atl as a road favorite but their offense has been so good, it's hard to imagine Ten will keep up if mariota is out. then again, he's a rookie so even if he plays, it'll be hard to keep up.
of course, it all depends on what the line is. if mariota is out, which he should be, their backup really sucks. he should do better at home against Atl's defense but i'd say the line should be Atl -5 with no mariota. with mariota, maybe 3.5
Tb @ Wash -3.5 the one we got right easily last week was wash. a terrible QB and offense on the road against a great defense. you had to figure cousins would darn that up and he did. this one is much easier playing a qb who is more mistake prone than cousins, at home, against a bad defense. washington should be able to run the ball, keep cousins limited and stay ahead of TB. i would never bet TB against a good defense with winson at QB without getting a loit more points than this.
i don't really trust washington's defense but they have done fairly well against some good offenses so far. if they can cause problems for winston, they should cover. ultimately, i see this like the jets., if TB can run the ball with martin and take it easy with winson, they can win. if wash can run the ball and not use cousins much, they should win. i tend to side with wash as they have played better defense so far and are at home.
Minn @ Detroit +2.5 detroit tried to lose for us last week giving up a couple of leads but they somehow managed to push at 3. they played about how they usually do though. bad defense for the most part, no running game to speak of but stafford only threw one INT so they were in a position to win. nothing special about that win though. looks like the same old detroit etam.
took a gamble, so to speak, going against minn last week and KC played better but couldn't score enough without charles and didn't cover. minn wasn't great as peterson had a below average day meaning bridgeweater had to play better and he didn't. peterson might be hurt. if he is, this team shouldn't be road favorites. if he's ok, detroit is bad enough on defense and poorly coached so that minn should win if they play pretty well. it's very hard to take detroit the way they are playing in so many areas and their coaching is so bad. always dangerous to take a road favorite in the division, but if minn is healthy, they should win this game.
Atl @ Tenn off this is off because mariota hurt his knee and is questionable. Atl came back down to earth looking like Atl of old letting brees carve them up. they were fine as usual on offense but fumbles killed them. i'd be hesitant to take Atl as a road favorite but their offense has been so good, it's hard to imagine Ten will keep up if mariota is out. then again, he's a rookie so even if he plays, it'll be hard to keep up.
of course, it all depends on what the line is. if mariota is out, which he should be, their backup really sucks. he should do better at home against Atl's defense but i'd say the line should be Atl -5 with no mariota. with mariota, maybe 3.5
Tb @ Wash -3.5 the one we got right easily last week was wash. a terrible QB and offense on the road against a great defense. you had to figure cousins would darn that up and he did. this one is much easier playing a qb who is more mistake prone than cousins, at home, against a bad defense. washington should be able to run the ball, keep cousins limited and stay ahead of TB. i would never bet TB against a good defense with winson at QB without getting a loit more points than this.
i don't really trust washington's defense but they have done fairly well against some good offenses so far. if they can cause problems for winston, they should cover. ultimately, i see this like the jets., if TB can run the ball with martin and take it easy with winson, they can win. if wash can run the ball and not use cousins much, they should win. i tend to side with wash as they have played better defense so far and are at home.
Hugh, I hope your time away is for pleasure rather than necessity. It's always good to see you posting among the people who reside here. CD is a treasure, the newsletter is legendary for those who know where to look.
Hugh, I hope your time away is for pleasure rather than necessity. It's always good to see you posting among the people who reside here. CD is a treasure, the newsletter is legendary for those who know where to look.
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