pretty lackluster week for the newsletter last week except getty with a nice an easy win. also, i lied about having plenty of time to work on the newsletter. i don't see tomorrow or friday being much better but we'll see.
just like last week, i have not seen any of the lines. i'll give some quick thoughts now and maybe more later. i might play something tomorrow. thanksgiving day is an exception to my usual anti-thursday betting bias.
Chicago v. Detroit -7 good call on detroit last week. i really thought their defense would come to play like they had in the past and NE might run out of steam. didn't quite go that way. i think this is a good matchup for detroit though and the line may be a bit high but not unfair. it's been a while since chicago has been impressive. playing a tough defense on a short week isn't a good pot or them.
Philly @ Dallas -3 another good call going against philly last week. but i don't buy sanchez yet and this is a tough matchup for the philly defense on a short week. mistakes by sanchez or if dallas can control the game with their running game and OL and this should be an easy dallas win.
Seattle @ SF -1.5 i was close to betting on seattle last week but couldn't find a line i liked late in the day. seattle was actually dominated by the AZ DL in that one. only AZ's inept offense and seattle's great home defense got them the fairly easy win. although a missed easy TD by brown and a missed FG was the difference in the cover. i don't think seattle is good enough to be basically even at SF here on the road. i'd lean to SF
all favorites all of the time here at CDS.com
Washington @ Indy -10 once washington got to +10 last week, we had to pull the trigger. we don't like this team but they are playing better defense and SF -10 with seattle on deck on a short week was too tempting. washington played well enough but now have benched RG3. we don't hate that move at all but the back and forth can't be good for this team. i still think washington's defense is playing too well to be +10 against a team that isn't elite and has major issues with their OL. washington or nothing.
Tenn @ Houston -6 houston also changing qb's but due to injury rather than other issues. with foster back, fitzpatrick, as bad as he is, is good enough to cover this one. tenn may have quit. not sure about this one right now. the line seems fair.
Clev @ Buffalo -2.5 pretty impressed that clev won in Atl last week. Atl isn't any good but Clev doesn't normally win those. this is a tougher road test. but why was Atl, who sucks, -3 last week while buffalo, who doesn't suck is just -2.5. those are the kind of things that scare me away. i like buffalo, other than that. just a better team at under a field goal.
SD @ Blt -5.5 seems like a good spot to go against Blt coming off a big MNF win giving up quite a few points to SD. although, SD hasn't had a quality win in a while. have to question how good they really are.
NYG @ Jax +2.5 lowest spread Jax has had for a while. are the giants ready to mail it in after last weekend? looks like a decent spot for Jax to get another win. we'll defer to getty here but i'd take a look at jax
Cincy @ TB +3.5 i didn't watch it but apparently chicago tried to let TB win last week in the first half but TB didn't want any part of it. Cincy is back to playing very well. might be a letdown spot with cincy ending the season with 3 division games and denver mized in. it'll be hard to be focused on this one. i'd lean TB as the home dog because of that. otherwise, there's a big difference in quality here and i'm not sure 3.5 makes up that difference much.
Oakland @ Stl -7 Stl continues to impress covering games against better teams. it'll be interesting to see how they do as a are big favorite. and oakland coming off a huge win. my guess is oakland has been celebrating too much with their extra time off and is just happy to not go 0-16. Stl is still playing hard and is clearly the better team. 7 is a lot though. not sure we like Stl as that kind of favorite. will look into this more.
NO @ Pitt -4.5 this could be a blowout with NO's defense really struggling and if the pitt offense catches fire like it does every now and then. otherwise, i'd say 4.5 is too much.
Carolina @ Minn -2.5 minn came through last weekend but that was more of a bet against GB as a large road favorite. this spread seems fair. no opinion right now.
AZ @ Atl -2.5 interesting Atl loses at home to Clev and most other teams yet they are favored over the team with the best reocrd in football. i think it's a combination of stanton and people are expecting an AZ decline. i am too. but not sure about Atl as a favorite here. maybe.
NE @ GB -3 doesn't seem to be a good situation for NE. the division is pretty much over, 7 game winning streak, coming off a near perfect performance. assuming detroit will be 8-4 by the time this game starts, GB will need the win a lot more than NE. looks like GB or nothing.
Denver @ KC +1.5 the way denver is paying lately, i won't bet them to win on the road here in a night game. i don't worry too mcuh about KC's oakland loss. everyone is entitled to a letdown and they hadn't had one since week one. Kc seems like the better play.
Miami @ NYJ +6.5 the jets are such a mess. now going back to geno. maimi playing well. but, these are the kinds of games where the jets surprise you, like with pitt in week 10 and NE in week 7. no way do we bet miami as that big of a road favorite here on MNF. probably stay away.
ok, bye week is over but i think that's it. should be back with plays, either tomorrow or sunday.