Duke opens up as a 4.5 fav. currently around 5.5 (donbest.com). What I find to be the key drivers of a basketball game are assists/t.o. ranks and schedule strength and shooting percentage def. - Mich st has a t/- assist ratio rank of 11 and sched. of 5 and a shooting percentage def of 39 %. Duke on the other hand has a +/- assists to turn over ratio a better rank and sched. strength. Mich st is better in shooting percentage def. by 3%.
When you look at the above along with an opening line of 4.5 - historically we had one tournament game with these similar numbers and other regular season gms...in this case history indicates the bottom team should cover the f/h (3 pts) and the gm by a significant margin. Thus i'm taking Duke for both f/h and gm.
In the 2nd gm - I'm taking Wisc. + the points and won't be surprised to see them win su.
Duke opens up as a 4.5 fav. currently around 5.5 (donbest.com). What I find to be the key drivers of a basketball game are assists/t.o. ranks and schedule strength and shooting percentage def. - Mich st has a t/- assist ratio rank of 11 and sched. of 5 and a shooting percentage def of 39 %. Duke on the other hand has a +/- assists to turn over ratio a better rank and sched. strength. Mich st is better in shooting percentage def. by 3%.
When you look at the above along with an opening line of 4.5 - historically we had one tournament game with these similar numbers and other regular season gms...in this case history indicates the bottom team should cover the f/h (3 pts) and the gm by a significant margin. Thus i'm taking Duke for both f/h and gm.
In the 2nd gm - I'm taking Wisc. + the points and won't be surprised to see them win su.
Buffer - Basically your looking at the opening line - collecting data - finding similar patterns and doing what history has shown. For example Tex. played Mich (not sure of the date) - had a very similar pattern and opening line as the michst/Duke game - in that game mich. won by a wide margin and covered f/h and game. Between that data point and others - it's my rationale for taking Duke in the f/h and game.
Buffer - Basically your looking at the opening line - collecting data - finding similar patterns and doing what history has shown. For example Tex. played Mich (not sure of the date) - had a very similar pattern and opening line as the michst/Duke game - in that game mich. won by a wide margin and covered f/h and game. Between that data point and others - it's my rationale for taking Duke in the f/h and game.
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