Messages

Forum Index : Boxing : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [Boxing] Topic: Boxing Picks
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#1
Posted: 12/20/2012 3:10:33 PM
Steve Cunningham +280 vs. Adamek 

Cunningham has been a hard luck fighter. He was knocked down three times vs. Adamek the first time, in a split decision loss, so it's hard to call it "luck," but you could certainly see the fight going another way. Adamek is more of a boxer now, but still an inferior one to Cunningham. If he fails to pressure Cunningham constantly, he might provide Cunningham the chance to win on points.  In interviews, Cunningham correctly identifies tactical mistakes from the first fight and speaks of paying close attention to game plan for the second. Not that Cunningham is a kid, but Adamek has slowed down and was badly outboxed by a one armed Eddie Chambers. Too many factors suggest the possibility of a Cunningham decision for him to be this much of a dog. Some fear of a bad decision in favor of Adamek, but I'll be happy if it comes to that point.

1 to win 2.8

Takashi "you ain't nothing but a" Uchiyama -475 vs. Bryan Vasquez. 

Earlier in the week, Uchiyama was as much as -1500. It's boxing so you have to wonder about that. However, there is no news of any kind of issue for Uchiyama. I believe someone simply saw those odds and, realizing Vasquez is a fine fighter, and perhaps dismissing Uchiyama because of his nationality, took a shot. And at that price it may have been worth it. 

However, Vasquez is just a solid guy, without exceptional speed or work rate and with power that looks average and a low KO rate. He's fighting a taller, stronger, more athletic fighter with devastating power and a comparable skill level. The fight will be in Japan, where Uchiyama is a money making star. Vasquez is a Costa Rican who doesn't make money anywhere. When you add it all up, Vasquez has no advantages and his only path to victory is to overwhelm Uchiyama's many advantages with the night of his life and a bad night by Uchiyama.  

10 to win 2.1

quote
thesoulpurpose
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
thesoulpurpose
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1100
Location: Quebec
#2
Posted: 12/20/2012 8:48:00 PM
I belive that adamek is one of the most under appriciated guys in the sport and a true warrior, the reason he has become more of a boxer recently is because he is often at a size dis -advantage since moving up from cruserweight, in this fight he will be much more of the stalker that he was at cruser, it would be foolish for him to try and box with the rangy cunningham, this fight will be very similar to the first one, the thing with cunningham is that he has lost to lesser fighters than adamek recently and adamek only loses to the best of the best(klitschko and dawson) cunningham is a B level guy, adamek is A and he will win this one by ko.somewhere during the second half of the fight.
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#3
Posted: 12/21/2012 7:35:03 PM
I wouldn't be at all surprised if it goes that way. Well, I'll be slightly surprised if Adamek is able to switch back into 100% stalker mode from bell to bell. Not many can change up styles that abruptly and I don't think he has the energy he once did. Also, I agree with you that Adamek is unappreciated. USS is even more so, so I'm glad to see this fight on national TV.  

Anyway, I'm just playing the price here. They put up Cunningham by decision at like +350, so I think that's even better. Adamek could definitely stalk him and hand him his first career KO. I just think there's a real chance USS is able to execute his game plan and outscore him without taking the knockdowns. If it DOES go like the first fight, but Steve keeps it to 1 or 0 knockdowns, I think you'll feel good having +280 (or +350, better yet) when they go to they cards. We'll see. Should be an entertaining match. 
quote
thesoulpurpose
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
thesoulpurpose
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1100
Location: Quebec
#4
Posted: 12/21/2012 10:04:37 PM
adamak weight in at 223 to cunninghams 203, 
quote
frank the tank send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
frank the tank
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5755
Location:
#5
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:14:33 PM
quote
Bambino send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Bambino
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 44
Location: United States
#6
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:32:07 PM
Any thoughts on the undercard, Hamer vs Glazkov? Only an 8 round fight, does it go 8 rounds?
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#7
Posted: 12/22/2012 6:52:01 PM
QUOTE
Sorry Bambino. Missed that, but to be honest with you, I had a slight lean to the over with fit young fighters on a big stage and neither having big KO power, in spite of what the announcers were saying. Who knew Tor would quit from two solid punches? Today was full of surprises. 

Originally Posted by Boxscout:

 Some fear of a bad decision in favor of Adamek, but I'll be happy if it comes to that point.


Well, I wasn't expecting THAT much of a robbery. Oh well. As I said in the other thread, this is boxing's version of your team being on the opponent's two and throwing a pick six. Maybe this one was like that happening two or three times, but it happens. 

-1
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#8
Posted: 12/30/2012 2:21:36 PM
Carl Frampton  Kiko Martinez

This is simply a mismatch. My wife hates boxing and I showed her 30 seconds of Kiko and 30 seconds of Frampton and she knew the winner. 

The more I watched Kiko, the more respect I gained for him. He does many things well and if the chance to bet on him against a continental level guy pops up in the future I might do so. 

Frampton is a world level fighter, very possibly on his way to being a world championship level fighter. His speed and power are superior to Kiko's and Kiko has some pretty big holes in his defense. I would worry about Frampton against a guy with one punch power, because he is open a big counter, but Kiko doesn't have that. 

Frampton is an emerging star in N. Ireland, where the fight will take place in front of 11,000 fans and where Frampton figures to generate millions of dollars over his career. 

This is -530 at 5dimes. If you are not stuck in the US, you can get better.  I think the odds might actually improve as the fight nears, but I filled out some parlays with it now, just in case it doesn't because I think Kiko's actual chance is maybe one in ten or worse.

Just for keeping track of things, we'll say 5.3 to win 1 for now. I'll probably try to win another unit near fight time. 
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#9
Posted: 12/31/2012 7:46:45 AM
Vasquez was a little too game for my liking. Most on a major boxing forum had Uchiyama ahead by 1-2 rounds, but watching the stream I was starting to sweat a bit as Vasquez was maximizing his chances and landing a lot of body shots. Uchiyama, however, had been landing some big shots and finally got him in trouble and closed it out with a TKO in round 8. 

Win 2.1

+1.1
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#10
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:42:32 PM
Danny Geale can now be had at -350 vs. Mundine. Geale comes forward, throws a lot of punches and is the big money fighter. Mundine is an aging, retreating counter puncher. We get a great price because Mundine got a W in a split decision vs Geale 3 years ago. Meanwhile, he's gotten older and Geale has gotten significantly better. 

7 to win 2

Fernando Guerrero +550 vs Peter Quillin. Quillin by KO is the most likely outcome, but this line says that FG is a nameless opponent. He is not.  FG was a national amateur champ. He's had one KO loss to a journeyman. But he's a very talented fighter, and Quillin has only been in against 1 guy at this level, N'Dam in his last fight. Judges and power favor Quillin, but work rate and slickness favor FG, a tricky southpaw, with decent power, trained by Virgil Hunter.  +550 is too much to pass up. 

1 to win 5.5
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#11
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:30:39 PM
Couple this weekend. 

Dannie Williams and John Molina JR are two lightweights with big power headlining FNF. Both have defensive holes. Both have 1 punch KO power. Williams is a little quicker, Molina is a little more high profile. To my eye, Williams does  better with the non-KO work. Williams has also never been KOed himself, while Molina is coming of a KO loss. I like Williams at +240, though for just a small bet. I have only seen one fight each and some highlights. 

.5 to win 1.2

I hope this one is a trilogy so that we can all go around saying, RRRRRico RRRRamos vs. Ronny RRRRRios for a year and a half. It's unlikely though, as this is more of a crossroads fight. Ronny is a GPB boy, undefeated and ready to make some money. Rico won a strap and was promptly sent back to the minors by Rigondeaux. But there are maybe two guys who don't lose to Rigo, so there's no shame in that. 

It's a very difficult fight to sort out because both guys have had some marginal performances and I don't know what to make of the trajectory of their careers. What we do know is that they'll both be determined and they are both well conditioned. We also know that neither is a lethal puncher. Along with more subtle aspects of their games, this leads me to a pretty high confidence bet on the over at 9.5 rounds -230.  

3 to win 1.3
quote
miguel31 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
miguel31
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 221
Location: United States
#12
Posted: 1/11/2013 7:32:46 PM
Good luck!
quote
jagerfury
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetDSI |
jagerfury
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 2839
Location: Colorado
#13
Posted: 1/11/2013 8:18:54 PM
Hope your punches land...
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#14
Posted: 1/12/2013 1:19:09 AM
Thanks guys. Dannie was in it. One punch in particular, he just missed by a hair would have had Molina in trouble. But I have to admit to a mounting sense of dread as the fight went on. KO, win for Molina.  -.5

Rios/Ramos made it over pretty comfortably. Not much damage done to either. One judge apparently filled out his card 10-0 for Rios while sitting on the can some time last week. +1.3  

+.8 on the day. +1.9 total. 
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#15
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:24:34 PM
There's some value still in Frankie Gavin this Friday. World Amateur champion and Frank Warren cash KO fighting a regional fighter named Jason Welborn. Welborn is tough but is just badly outclassed, to the point that this is like the Cleveland Browns playing LSU. Prices vary very widely. No point in taking him -3000 or -5000, but he can be had for -1800 at BOL, -1900 a couple other places. 

9 to win .5 
quote
jagerfury
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetDSI |
jagerfury
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 2839
Location: Colorado
#16
Posted: 1/16/2013 8:12:02 PM
Do you have an opinion on the BROOKLYN, NY  JR WELTERWEIGHT fight between Judah and Garcia...
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#17
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:15:08 PM
Kind of. I was all set to take Garcia at like 2.5 or 3 to 1. Was surprised to see Zab such a huge dog. I can't bring myself to bet on Zab, but if you like him, I think the price is right.  
quote
miguel31 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
miguel31
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 221
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 1/17/2013 1:07:07 AM
Welborn very outclassed. Awful odds. But more power to you for adding a little to the bankroll. 

Looking forward to a few fights this weekend. I like Garcia, and the under on the Golovkin fight.
quote
miguel31 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
miguel31
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 221
Location: United States
#19
Posted: 1/17/2013 1:11:03 AM
Let's have a nice week. First "big" weekend of the year.
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#20
Posted: 1/17/2013 1:15:20 AM
BOL  
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#21
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:04:52 AM
Gavin a Winner. +.5  

+2.4 total. 

Putting 1.6 to win 1 on the Garcia/Salido over 9.5  

I don't know why this didn't click when the line opened at -135, but in a nutshell, is there any reason to think either of these guys go down easily?  We know Salido sure as hell won't, and Garcia is a technically sound, -240 favorite. 
quote
miguel31 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
miguel31
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 221
Location: United States
#22
Posted: 1/19/2013 7:09:10 PM
Parlay: 4.5u to win 5.25u. Kovalev/Garcia.

Burgos @ -150: 4.5u to win 3u

Ayala @ -115: 3u to win 2.61u

Good luck all!
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#23
Posted: 1/19/2013 8:36:14 PM
Good luck to you. 

Semi-hedged by taking Salido inside distance for +459. 

.3 to win 1.3.

I say it's a semi-hedge because I think a late round stoppage by Salido is a on the table for sure. Especially with big bro working the corner. 
quote
BigPapa21 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
BigPapa21
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 2614
Location: United States
#24
Posted: 1/19/2013 8:45:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boxscout:

Good luck to you. 

Semi-hedged by taking Salido inside distance for +459. 

.3 to win 1.3.

I say it's a semi-hedge because I think a late round stoppage by Salido is a on the table for sure. Especially with big bro working the corner. 


Salitdo +210    under 9.5 +105      isd salido +439....GL
quote
Boxscout send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Boxscout
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 100
Location: Nevada
#25
Posted: 1/19/2013 8:46:38 PM
Actually, was +439.  Rounding down my wins anyway. 
quote
Forum Index : Boxing : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.