Posted: 12/10/2012 4:50:22 PM
First, I'm not going to make the argument that JMM can beat Floyd....logic (and only logic) based on what we've seen would suggest that he can't and probably won't (if a rematch were to happen).
However, one can not discount a few things here.
1. Dinamita is extremely intelligent and his ring IQ certainly rivals Floyd's. JMM will have certainly learned something from his last encounter with Jr. Look no further than how he progessed strategically as a fighter in the tetralogy with Manny. Juan definitely stands to learn more from losing to Floyd than Floyd will have learned from whipping the Mexican the first time. That becomes a dangerous facet for a potential rematch, especially when you're talking about a guy as intelligent as Marquez. Again, I'm not saying this alone would be enough to overcome Floyd's superior speed, defense, and counterpunching, but a fight between these two would look nothing like the first encounter, IMO.
2. Furthermore, if this fight went off, it would almost be certain to take place at 147 lbs. (WW), which is the weight they fought at the first time. One thing Marquez benefited from by chasing Pacquiao thru the higher weight divisions, was that he started putting muscle on the right way. Let's face it, the first time he fought Floyd he was a friggin bloated doughboy. He had no business fighting a guy of Jr.s ability at that big of a natural weight differential and everyone in boxing knew it. Hell, Nacho even knew it. Marquez's body is completely different now. Again, I'm not saying that it's enough to win the fight, but he would certainly be more physically equipped this go around.
3. Timing - last week Money May said he'd fight twice in 2013. With the first fight coming the weekend of Cinco de Mayo. Does anyone (other than Floyd and his entourage) know how the time in the clink effected his body? He's known for being a gym rat and always in shape, but everything I've read would suggest that he struggled physically while in there and immediately after his release. I'm sure he's probably ok by now, but that was definetly a setback and the biggest deterrent to him fighting any sooner. Point being, I don't think Marquez is the guy you pick first under these circumstances. I mean, I'm picking a guy that first, doesn't have revenge on his mind, and second - a lesser experienced opponent that you'd have a psychological advantage over.
Again, I'm not suggesting that these variables would be enough for a Marquez victory, but they defintely lend support for a more competitive fight....at least more competitive than people may think.
Honestly though, I don't think they'll make this fight. But I'd be willing to be bet that it isn't because of Marquez. We'll see which approach Floyd takes...will it be "I whipped this guy first go round, and it'll be easier work this time" -Or- will PED usage be an issue based on the new muscularity of JMM and his right hand sledge hammer....ha. Bottomline, Floyd only takes this fight if he knows he can beat him as handily as he did the first time. Floyd's not about challenges and fan friendly fights. Floyd's about "Money" and "Legacy"...... in that order.