Khan Under 9.5

Forum: Boxing
Author: [Boxing] Topic: Khan Under 9.5
ShadyDude PM ShadyDude
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Posted: 7/11/2012 1:50:35 PM

$500 to win $625

Kid is cocky, he's a 6/1 favorite, expecting a highlight KO or Ref stoppage, he needs a good showing to get back in big fight conversations.

And i think he has a big chip on shoulder after "loss"

Uncle_Gimp PM Uncle_Gimp
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Posted: 7/11/2012 2:34:48 PM
that will be my bet too, but only laying 100, lol.

Not a huge player in the fight game, but I will be Vegas for the weekend, so why not
ShadyDude PM ShadyDude
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Posted: 7/11/2012 2:35:44 PM
awesome, good luck at the tables
ZOUK PM ZOUK
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Posted: 7/11/2012 7:10:10 PM

I wouldn't use the "must" or "need" handicapping technique which is when a NFL team has their last game and if they win (against a team with no playoff chance) they get in to the playoffs.
Now, motive is the key source in any analytical assessment, and everything revolves from it. The problem is people assume that the team with no playoffs that season has no or less motivation. Many teams play their heart out to stop a team needing that win, and also they have no pressure and play relaxed. Just because an entity (team, fighter, player, etc.) needs the victory, rarely adds any increase in positive results. Apparently this team has struggled and has been inconsistent, therefore producing the situation they are facing.

As for wagering: To invest equity in a situation that has shown to be inconsistent and using their desire to be successful as an integral part that will shape the outcome in a positive favor presents a heuristic that would embrace a large negative expected result (also presenting the –EV ratio).

 

Now if by analyzing not on what and how an entity must produce, but rather a similar type of category such as “regressions to the mean”, then this can be a very profitable scenario thus showing a high +EV.

 GL on your wagers!





ZOUK PM ZOUK
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Posted: 7/11/2012 7:13:39 PM
My apologies for NERDY GEEK JARGON, but sometimes you got to

.... mix-it-up! 
ShadyDude PM ShadyDude
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Posted: 7/11/2012 11:07:09 PM

wow. you be smart.....just kidding. That was a good read.

what a interseting perspective. Khan doesnt "need" i good showing like i stated, but i believe he will produce a good showing b/c he is a different tier fighter than Garcia, and very brash.........and on another note, if his cockyness or ego gets the better of him, maybe he could get chin checked..

But the truth is Khan will dominate a lesser oppenent

Under is the play

 

 

Jerseyboy89 PM Jerseyboy89
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Posted: 7/11/2012 11:14:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadyDude:

$500 to win $625

Kid is cocky, he's a 6/1 favorite, expecting a highlight KO or Ref stoppage, he needs a good showing to get back in big fight conversations.

And i think he has a big chip on shoulder after "loss"


a highlight KO?  Really?  when has Khan produced a highlight KO other than him getting knocked out by Prescott?  
LRM704 PM LRM704
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Posted: 7/12/2012 11:58:42 PM
Khan is gonna box his ears off as they used to say 
nuttyrich PM nuttyrich
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Posted: 7/13/2012 12:46:04 AM
 Khan wins inside distance +114 :)

Khan will land the jab all night busting up Garcia, good luck to everyone :)

                                             
moneymay PM moneymay
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Posted: 7/13/2012 8:53:56 PM
Garcia is tough and khan is not a ko fighter. Garcia very young and strong bull. Khan does the one two out all night long and wins on points.
Crazyremy PM Crazyremy
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Posted: 7/14/2012 4:37:43 PM
I like Garcia +780 12Rd D.  ....pure value play
Redlad PM Redlad
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Posted: 7/14/2012 8:09:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LRM704:

Khan is gonna box his ears off as they used to say 




Yep.. That just about says it all. 6-1 is a value lay IMHO. I make him a 10 -1 favorite.
sowhat83 PM sowhat83
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Posted: 7/14/2012 8:11:41 PM
chuckdaduck PM chuckdaduck
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Posted: 7/14/2012 11:38:05 PM
holy garbage, kahn got crushed
ShadyDude PM ShadyDude
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Posted: 7/14/2012 11:42:53 PM
Wow! I was off but a win is a win
$$$
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ShadyDude PM ShadyDude
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Posted: 7/14/2012 11:47:50 PM
*i did mention Khan could get chin checked

What a fight.
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UnderdogKing PM UnderdogKing
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Posted: 7/14/2012 11:56:06 PM
Nice.  I thought Khan would have been the one doing the TKOing, but I'll take it.
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