Posted: 7/11/2012 7:10:10 PM
I wouldn't use the "must" or "need"
handicapping technique which is when a NFL team has their last game and if they
win (against a team with no playoff chance) they get in to the playoffs.
Now, motive is the key source in any analytical assessment, and everything
revolves from it. The problem is people assume that the team with no playoffs
that season has no or less motivation. Many teams play their heart out to stop
a team needing that win, and also they have no pressure and play relaxed. Just
because an entity (team, fighter, player, etc.) needs the victory, rarely adds
any increase in positive results. Apparently this team has struggled and has
been inconsistent, therefore producing the situation they are facing.
As for wagering: To invest equity in a situation that has
shown to be inconsistent and using their desire to be successful as an integral
part that will shape the outcome in a positive favor presents a heuristic that would
embrace a large negative expected result (also presenting the –EV ratio).
Now if by analyzing not on what and how an entity must
produce, but rather a similar type of category such as “regressions to the mean”,
then this can be a very profitable scenario thus showing a high +EV.
GL on your wagers!