Rogers Cup Preview
This year’s Rogers Cup in Montreal may be missing a bit of star power, but the field for this Masters 1000 event is still very strong. Undeterred by the Olympic schedule, world #1 one Novak Djokovic is headed to Canada as the top seed this year. With Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal all pulling out ahead of the Rio games, Djokovic will be considered a very heavy favorite to win this tournament for the first time since 2012. The Serb lost last year’s final to Andy Murray. This event has traditionally fallen to one of tennis; royals since 2004. In that span, only once has a player not named Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Muray or Rafael Nadal won the title. That was the 2014 shocker that saw Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeat Roger Federer. Tsonga is another name that is not on this year’s entry list due to the Olympic schedule.
Rounding out the top four seeds this week will be Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori andMilos Raonic. Nishikori has the best results among that group with a semifinal showing last year, where he was swept aside by Murray. Wawrinka has lost in his first match at this event in two of the last three years. Raonic made the final in 2013, but lost his first-up to Ivo Karlovic in a pair of tiebreaks last year.
Seeds five through eight include Tomas Berdych, who is a three-time quarterfinalist, but has not progressed that far since 2011. He has been beaten in his first or second match four straight years. At #6, Dominic Thiem will need to prove he is not getting worn down by a busy first half schedule. This has not been a great swing for him traditionally and he is 0-2 lifetime at the Rogers Cup. David Goffin (7) is just 2-2 all-time at this event and Marin Cilic has only been past the round of 16 once. That came in his debut year at this event in 2008 when he made the quarters.
Over the past four years, the top seed has not always had the best luck at this tournament. In that stretch, the top seed won just once in 2012 (Djokovic) and made the final just twice (Djokovic). The top seed has only missed the semifinals once in the past for years. As for the semifinal make-up, an unseeded player has crashed that party once in each of the last three years. A double digit seed has made the semis in three of the past four years.
The quarterfinals at the Rogers Cup have always seen a bit of upheaval from outsiders. At least two unseeded players have made the quarters in three of the past four years with last year being the only year where just one made it. As with most tournaments, there are always a handful of seeded upsets early on. The Rogers Cup has seen at least five seeds fall in their openers in three of the four years since 2012. At least two have lost in each of the past four years.