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Author: [Tennis] Topic: Joker versus Nadal
Gavinnick send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/9/2012 11:54:31 AM

let the comments begin :

 

Leaning Joker ...even though line smells fishy as hell......

can the #1 tennis player in the world win as a +260 dog?

WTF are the books trying to pull here....

 

either A:

This is an obvious Nadal win.

 

Or B:

 

The books figure no one will expect Joker to beat Nadal as such a big dog ( this angle rarely hits I dont track it, but a higher ranked player as a +250 dog is very rare)

On paper it has to be closer then this, doesnt it?  I mean for christ sakes Joker is capable

 

 

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Posted: 6/9/2012 1:03:05 PM
for me, if healthy and no injury occurs during the match, RAFA is an 85% favorite to win 3 sets before djoko does, so basically 5.5 to 1 or so,

at -330, the play is clearly a mathematically driven on to bet Rafa or no play

+270ish on Djoko is simply too short a number
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Posted: 6/9/2012 1:38:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gridironguy:

for me, if healthy and no injury occurs during the match, RAFA is an 85% favorite to win 3 sets before djoko does, so basically 5.5 to 1 or so,

at -330, the play is clearly a mathematically driven on to bet Rafa or no play

+270ish on Djoko is simply too short a number

 

I have to agree with you ......However, that is from the books perspective.....In sports there is a rare reverse trap (the books) say : well since it will be close and everybody thinks Nadal lets put Nadal at -330 and make the bettors pay up......Or tie Up Sharapova and Nadal together in all the parlays....knowing alot of people would rather take the 2 favorites and parlay them for the finals.....

  One Thing for sure ....NO F-ing way Nadal is -330 favorite in my book .........I give him -220 at most.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted: 6/9/2012 5:23:41 PM

Well I am goning with  the over 36.5 -130 for the Final .....square as it gets .....but I see Joker getting a set if he loses, and if Nadal losses its going 5 sets

    

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#5
Posted: 6/9/2012 5:36:08 PM
Nadal -1.5 Sets -180 is the play. If it goes 5 I think the Joker will win so reduce the chalk on Nadal -1.5 sets.
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#6
Posted: 6/9/2012 5:36:09 PM
I like Nadal to win 3-0 or 3-1. If Nadal wins the 1st set, forget about it as he will bury Joker deep in a hole.. only chance joker has is winning the first set. But I still like Nadal to win this one. I am going with Nadal and the spread. gl all
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#7
Posted: 6/9/2012 6:13:17 PM
I'm not surprised by this line at all. Nadal -350 sounds just as it should be to me. Rafa here 9 out of 10 times. Vamos Rafa!!!
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Posted: 6/9/2012 11:08:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sammy_ny:

I like Nadal to win 3-0 or 3-1. If Nadal wins the 1st set, forget about it as he will bury Joker deep in a hole.. only chance joker has is winning the first set. But I still like Nadal to win this one. I am going with Nadal and the spread. gl all

 

     If Joker losses the first set its over?

Geez the love for Nadal is just sickening

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Posted: 6/9/2012 11:35:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gavinnick:

 

     If Joker losses the first set its over?

Geez the love for Nadal is just sickening



that guys comment is lame, absolutely insane and lame. 

yes, i am clearly a rafa fan, but i expect no less than 4 sets, and i believe at least 1 of the 4 goes 7-6 and another 7-5.  5 sets would be no surprise.  this will be a fierce tennis chess game and battle.  overall, i just think rafa will win 3 sets before joker can, at this venue, at his current form, all things considered in the burgeoning rivalry the last 16-17 mos between these 2
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Posted: 6/9/2012 11:39:40 PM
Rafa is the king of the French Open but he did lose to Verdasco on clay a few weeks ago. Of course that wasn't in a Grand Slam but to totally dismiss Novak here is asinine. 
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#11
Posted: 6/9/2012 11:47:18 PM
Nadal has a 51-1 win-loss record at Roland Garros and has dropped just 35 games to reach the final here, which is the fewest games he has ever lost en route to a grand slam final.


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Posted: 6/9/2012 11:48:40 PM
He is the first man since tennis turned professional in 1968 to reach five grand slam finals without dropping a set. Ominously, on each occasion he has gone on to win the title.
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#13
Posted: 6/9/2012 11:49:33 PM
My head says Nadal.

But joker with what's at stake, the guy is mentally tough.

No bet.

GL.
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#14
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:25:58 AM
it is important to note that the odds the BOOKS set are not based on the true probability of Nadal or Joker winning, but rather what the general betting public perceive the true probability to be.
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Posted: 6/10/2012 12:31:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BMA:

it is important to note that the odds the BOOKS set are not based on the true probability of Nadal or Joker winning, but rather what the general betting public perceive the true probability to be.



#
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Posted: 6/10/2012 1:08:55 AM
I have been on Nadal before the French to win a dime, sprinkled lunch money on him -1.5 & -2.5 sets. Nadal hasn't been this hungry in a while, he is out to prove something. He has won the French in both 08 and 2010 w/o dropping a set and I see him doing it again this year. Has Djokovic's game improved vastly over the last few years? Yes. Last year he played out of his mind the whole year and beat Rafa twice on clay, once at Rome and the other at Madrid. What did Nadal do this year? Follow it up with a W over Djoker at Rome (7-5, 6-3) and Monte Carlo (6-3, 6-1). I was not convinced when watching Djoker beat Roger in the semis, the score seems a lot wider than the match really was. Roger had good opportunities to take the first and the second and was just done mentally in the third. Barely edging Tsonga, Seppi, and beating a struggling Fed in a match that was closer than the scored indicated doesn't make me think he can beat Rafa while Rafa is absolutely dismantling players, the only player to even give him a challenge in any set was Almagro in the first set of their QF match which went to a TB (Both Mugro and Ferrer are good dirt ballers). If this was Djoker of last year I say take a shot as it could be his time to dethrone Rafa on this surface but tomorrow morning he is running into an absolute buzz saw who is firing on all cylinders.
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#17
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:31:21 AM
the line and game spread tell you everything you need to know, it will not be a tough fought 4 or 5 setter.  if joker is able to sneak out a set he will be lucky but rafa is going to dominate. 
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#18
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:31:47 AM
the line and game spread tell you everything you need to know, it will not be a tough fought 4 or 5 setter.  if joker is able to sneak out a set he will be lucky but rafa is going to dominate. 
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#19
Posted: 6/10/2012 3:18:16 AM
i don't bet on tennis much but i was looking at this matchup and my book says no action if a player retires, which i knew. but how does set betting work? because the "no action" note seems like it's only for the matchup bet and not the set betting bet. can someone help me? thanks.
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Posted: 6/10/2012 3:53:39 AM
There is only one way to bet this match otherwise u r a friggin fool!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 6/10/2012 4:28:55 AM
I know this bet has a lot of juice but does over 3.5 sets at -175 seem like a good bet. I'm gonna put it in a parlay not straight up.
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#22
Posted: 6/10/2012 4:39:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professional1:

There is only one way to bet this match otherwise u r a friggin fool!

How would you bet it? I don't want to be a fool.
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Posted: 6/10/2012 5:55:13 AM
Gav! Bro....we hammered Pova the tennis darling yesterday and djoka against Fed the day before....why jump off a good thing now?

I have 550 to win 500 on Nadal future to win the Roland Garros and I have just added more on him today.

Let the rich get richer! I've been dominating ATP/WTA. Let the good times continue buddy. 

Nole get smashed by the clay court specialist! 


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Posted: 6/10/2012 6:08:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:

for me, if healthy and no injury occurs during the match, RAFA is an 85% favorite to win 3 sets before djoko does, so basically 5.5 to 1 or so,


at -330, the play is clearly a mathematically driven on to bet Rafa or no play

+270ish on Djoko is simply too short a number

Say it.. say whoever bets on Joker is "insane" just like you did to everone who was betting Timothy Bradley yesterday night.

Pleaaaaseeee say it !
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#25
Posted: 6/10/2012 6:38:36 AM
Martina Navratilova.

"I'm sure the guys...thank God they're not playing all the tournaments on clay. He's amazing," said 18-times grand slam champion

"Nobody can be counted as a favourite against Nadal on clay, no matter what the ranking is."
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