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Author: [Tennis] Topic: 2012 Indian Wells
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#1
Posted: 3/5/2012 2:13:43 PM
(81-87 -31.3u) LAST WEEK
(429-508 +5u) Overall 2012 

up and down we go... but one thing is certain, I am terrible at this...  But hoping I can continue to be lucky... Its all about the massive 100u week...

limited plays... betting tons of plays is not working...

Monday 5th
2u
Gallovits +115b, +150

that's right only one play today....  the idea is that pliskova was just in Kuala Lampur a few hours ago playing doubles... Its not exactly a quick flight to LA... and even then its not that easy to get to Indio... call it 2 hours to the irport in KL, then anywhere for 14-20 hours to LA.. then another 2-3 hours just to get to Indio... thats tough for anyone but especially a lower level player tht probably isnt doing it in luxury... Gallovits a pure clay player but I give this match a 50/50 and with that i see value... 

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#2
Posted: 3/5/2012 6:40:11 PM
1u
Federer (exibition v. Roddick) + Soeda + Udomchoke + Wang +135r
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#3
Posted: 3/6/2012 12:32:00 PM
0-1 -1u WEEK

pliskova got some love from the tourney directors and her match got pushed a day and now I hate my friggin play... Seems like the books do too... Line has jumped signficantly and Gallovits now a +180 dog or better... Oh well, match not over but getting no value on an upset now..

ADDED and PENDING:
2u
Smyczek Over Andreev +135, +120b
Gallovits +115b, +150

- THis might not be an obvious play to all, but it is to me... Andreev is just a player that is incredibly inconsistent and usually you have good value betting against him as a fav because he could lay an egg at any moment... In this case I think the upset is even more likely... Smyczek on a good run and Andreev has played his last 15 matches on clay... 
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#4
Posted: 3/6/2012 1:57:57 PM
andreev is a russian ... russians lose when they shouldnt
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#5
Posted: 3/6/2012 7:14:19 PM
friggin tired of this garbage

darn you smyczek... At least ur assholew will be sore in the morning

1-2 -.35u WEEK
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#6
Posted: 3/6/2012 8:26:53 PM
reverse jinx works... Sorry timmy

2-1 +4.20u WEEK
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#7
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:42:35 PM
Wed card:

3u
Cirstea/Bensova Over 20.5, 21 -135, -120, -105
1u
Suarez-Navarro +3 +105
Matosevic + Hlavackova/Hradecka + Kirilenko/Petrova -105
.5u
Erakovic +2.5 -115
Erakovic ML +130
Vandewege +1.5 Games -115
Vandewege ML +110b

- I got what is unarguably the best match of the day and I am expecting them to exchange sets... The books like Benesova and I am hard pressed to believe them but with Cirstea' return game there is no way its gonna be easy... If Benesovas forehand is off Cirstea is gonna have a great chance to win this match... point is, it should be back and forth as both players are playing very good tennis right now... 
- The mosquita, she frustrate the hell out of a struggling Pironkova
- Parlay, then Erakovic in good spot, then coco who has he game to beat anyone, getting scary how many opportunities she is letting slip.

 gl all

Futures Added:
2u
Murray +580
1u
Tsonga +3500

- No value in joker, Feds draw is too hard, Nadal's is tough too.. Likely will be the big four in the semis... so I took the longest one of them and a longshot who could sneak past Nadal and Fed..
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#8
Posted: 3/7/2012 1:25:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

Wed card:

3u
Cirstea/Bensova Over 20.5, 21 -135, -120, -105
1u
Suarez-Navarro +3 +105
Matosevic + Hlavackova/Hradecka + Kirilenko/Petrova -105
.5u
Erakovic +2.5 -115
Erakovic ML +130
Vandewege +1.5 Games -115
Vandewege ML +110b

- I got what is unarguably the best match of the day and I am expecting them to exchange sets... The books like Benesova and I am hard pressed to believe them but with Cirstea' return game there is no way its gonna be easy... If Benesovas forehand is off Cirstea is gonna have a great chance to win this match... point is, it should be back and forth as both players are playing very good tennis right now... 
- The mosquita, she frustrate the hell out of a struggling Pironkova
- Parlay, then Erakovic in good spot, then coco who has he game to beat anyone, getting scary how many opportunities she is letting slip.

 gl all

Futures Added:
2u
Murray +580
1u
Tsonga +3500

- No value in joker, Feds draw is too hard, Nadal's is tough too.. Likely will be the big four in the semis... so I took the longest one of them and a longshot who could sneak past Nadal and Fed..

Couldn't agree more.  I love betting against Benesova as she is always good for a horrible performance.  She has been playing better as of late but I definitely think the wrong player is favored here. 

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#9
Posted: 3/7/2012 5:08:40 PM
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#10
Posted: 3/7/2012 5:23:22 PM
against da census ... hmmm, maybe i should take the dogs, cause the favs dont give a damn!

thats why my last parlay, i took 3 dogs, 3 favs, 1 50/50 match
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#11
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:05:44 PM
I never claimed to be betting against benesova... She is a great player and I don't imagine betting against her is profitable in the long run

joe dogs are definitely the way to go... Always...

testy match from kiry/petrova but they pull through, no fun on the dogs....

3-4 today +2.9u

5-5 +7.1u WEEK
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#12
Posted: 3/8/2012 2:31:21 AM
Thurs Card:

2u
Giraldo 2-0 -135*
Lepchenko + Makarova +175
1u
Girlado -4.5 +115*
Hradecka ML -105
Bagnis -165b, -165r
Veic -150, -150r
.5u
Falconi +275
Falconi +1.5 Sets -110u
Falconi +5 Games -110

- I never miss the opportuinity to fade Sock... he keeps getting WC and will keep losing in the first round... Giraldo serve is good enough to hold easily against sock...  solid hardcourt player even though he is known for clay
- Lepchenko I think is the only qualifier that I saw that has game... she played really well to make it to the field while Panova got a gimme match in Caroline Garcia and then a retirement... Form over rank here...
- Begu is only comfertable on clay... Always scary backing a doubles player in singles but I thinkshe should get it done if she jsut plays her game and brings Begu to the net...
- Challenger plays I like... Bagnis on a good run on clay... Velotti is not that great... Handed a match in the first round, think there is value in Veic at -150... Losing on these juicy plays will likely keep me off juice for the foreseeable future...
- Think Falconi has a shot with these condidtions, on this surface... 


*Girlado plays are not in yet, their match doesnt start till around 4pm tomorrow... I have a feeling dumbasses will bet Sock and I will be able to get a better price on 2-0 and get the spread at -4... Waiting to see... will posting if the lines I get a drastically different...

 gl all
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#13
Posted: 3/8/2012 2:33:55 AM
- BIG PLAY... Likely makarova... already have here parlayed but may add more if Lepchenko pulls through... The only place Mattek-Sands has game is indoors.. through some wind and heat and sun into the equation and I bet her UF errors count sails above the 40 mark...
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#14
Posted: 3/8/2012 3:39:15 PM
giraldo spread at -4 -110, 2-0 bet same juice..


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#15
Posted: 3/8/2012 3:42:28 PM
2-1 .75u Today

pending:

2u
Giraldo 2-0 -135
Lepchenko + Makarova +175
1u
Girlado -4 -110*
Hradecka ML -105
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#16
Posted: 3/8/2012 7:38:28 PM
wah... Hradecka has 5 match points or her serve and chokes them all away

added

5u
Makarova -115
1u
makarova 2-0 +195
makarova -1.5 +100
makarova 1st -110

all eggs are in the one basket
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#17
Posted: 3/9/2012 12:16:58 AM
8-3 +10.45u TODAY
13-8 +17.55u WEEK

We are rollin so far this week...

so many leans tomorrw but I kniw I need to trim it down...

gl all
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#18
Posted: 3/9/2012 12:24:36 AM
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#19
Posted: 3/9/2012 12:31:23 AM
Tailed makarova  6-0 day for me. GL tomorrow guys 
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#20
Posted: 3/9/2012 1:04:02 AM
Fri Card:

3u
Niemenan + Hauntucova + Dimitrov +195
2u
Paire +115b, +115
Llorda -140
Barthel +6.5 +115*
1u
Bubka +305
Kohls/Monfils +175r, +170b
Makarova/Zheng +160r, +160b
Bratchikova/Peschke +150r, +140b
Llorda/Zimonjic -175r, -160b
.5u
Barthel +925
Barthel 1st Set +550
Barthel +1.5 Sets +350u
Bubka +1.5 Sets +125u
Bubka Spread +4.5 -105

*This is the only play not in... 3rd match on center court tomorrow... just hoping to see +7... and the parlay is only about 50% in..

- Rare to see a parlay as my largest play but I am not liking juice right now... just seeing it makes me cringe... so parlay it is... Haas doesnt belong anywhere Indio at this point of his career... Hauntucova has had a lot of success here winning twice.. I think Zakapolova should be a comfortable opponent for her... Dimitrov is one of my favorite players to watch and its gonna be rough watching him lose another one, but it is the only late match I like and if it all pans ouut might end up being a big play if the first two hit...
- Berlocq has shown that he is fully invested in his clay game right now... He cannot just jump on this court and succeed... He has been playing great but by going straight up old school on the clay courts... (cite 1h 40m set with Simon a few weeks ago) that garbage is not gonna get it done here... no surprises if he just gets his check and goes... Lots of clay left to be played this season...
- Llorda been playing great and I think there is value here even if it gets windy... Gulbis a good returner and an overall high I player but is still finding his legs this season...
- Probably throwing my money away with barthel, but I asked myself what the odds on this match would be next year if/when Barthel is in the top 10... way closer... I see value... but Vika has been straight making girl taste it... 
- Bubka has shown me he is playing well... I mean his serve is somethign else and if its on this guy could keep it lose with roger... he serves at 75% or better I imagine he beats the always upset prone Davy... 
- Doubles... the only play I regret makin is the juicy one but I gott believe Llorda/Zimonjc get it done.. Its odd though.. Loorda is the only person I hav seen this week that has had to ply his singles an doubles on the same day... I almost think thats a good thing as he can look forward to the day off tomorrow... if he wins...

 gl all
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#21
Posted: 3/9/2012 3:26:53 PM
Any value with bhupati/bopanna at only -125? Benny and tsonga aren't doubles players per se but these Indians are specialists. Why is this line so low for the curryndians?
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#22
Posted: 3/9/2012 7:37:20 PM
^^
I dont think there is value in Bhupati/Bopanna... I know they won a tourney recently but these guys are together most likely because of the olympics... I think both has had better chemistry with different partners.... Plus I rate Bennateau as an elite doubles player, just doenst play often...



terrible, bad luck filled day... bubka had a 5-0 lead in the first and he couldnt take it and then after it all he doesnt even cover the +4.5... what a schmuck... looking like too little too late for barthel... but she will cover the spread...

2-9 -5.2u TODAY

PENDING AND ADDED:

2u
Dimitrov ML + Ito ML (challenger) + Kvitova (fri) + Stosur + Masha + Murray + Joker +135r, +150b
1u
Dimitrov ML -170
Dimitrov 2-0 +140
Dimitrov -2.5 -105
Dimirov 1st -150
Kohls/Monfils +175r, +170b
Makarova/Zheng +160r, +160b
Llorda/Zimonjic -175r, -160b

will adjust if somehow barthel pulls out the second but i wont hold my breath...

gl all


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#23
Posted: 3/9/2012 10:27:01 PM
added:

2u
Kvitova 2-0 -230
1u
Darcis -115

as always have a safe Friday night... 

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#24
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:57:52 AM
9-11 +.75u YEST
22-19 +18.30u WEEK

Actually escaped with profit yesterday... very unlucky day but good to see it work out... Barthel was impressive but of course choked away numerous opportuinites in the third... up a double break and serving for the match twice... Live bet Vika numerous times in the third so all in all I had a good day... Woke up to see Darcis prevailed but I was told he too was up a double break in the third before squandering it... gotta be lucky this week... Doubles hurt as I went 0-4...

PENDING AND ADDED:

2u
Lisicki 2-0 -240
Stosur + Masha + Murray + Joker +135r, +150b
1u
Kubot +230
Kubot +3.5 -110

- ate the juice on Lisicki because I am up this week and I can afford to do so... Despite the fact the surface seems to be playing a little slow I am taking lisicki here knowing the serve can bail here out of any tight sets..
- Kubot just handilybeat Karlovic whose serve is bigger and more deceptive that Roddick's... I like his chancees to pull the upset...

I have more than a few more plays but I am waiing to see what happens with Lisicki before I lay any more heavy juice today..

Futures Added:
2u
Masha +525
1u
Bartoli +3500

- see the winner coming out of Masha's side of the draw... Vika seems vulnerable... Bartoli has an easy road and one or two upsets put her in the final...

gl all

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#25
Posted: 3/10/2012 8:28:37 AM
Lots of garbage to do today so got/getting the rest of my plays in...

2u
Harrison/Triocki Over 22 -110
1u
Kirilenko -3.5 -140
Kirilenko 2-0 +100
Seppi +325b
Seppi +4.5 -120
Malisse/Dolgo -135
Anderson/Raonic +350, +335r
Goerges/Lisicki +135, +120r
Joker 2-0 + Stosur 2-0 + Masha 2-0 + Murray 2-0 -185
Joker 2-0 + Paes/Stepanek + Masha 2-0 + Murray 2-0 -135r, -145b


- Triocki and harrison have split the last 2 meeting... I expect this one to go three...
- I like Kiri on this surface
- Seppi has shown great improvement in his hardcourt game... I like him to take out Fish in what so far haas been a down year...

I might bite the juice hard on Joker 2-0 bu will probably end up just betting him on the spread as I am already invested in joker 2-0 in some already juicy parlays...


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