Hi all Here follows my thoughts about two matchups tomorrow, sprinkling some units around, follow the reasoning if you are interested, or discuss freely and share your input
Have a good one everyone!
HJK - Astana
Finland versus Kazakstan, one of them will reach the playoff but personally my view on these odds are very misleading. HJK reached this stage by defeating Ventspils from Latvia, but did not convince and never really got tested to the limit, and Ventspils could have caused more harm for the Finnish side if they were more organized. However, kudos to HJK who have reached this far, which is an achievement in itself. While respecting the home record of HJK, with their latest loss coming in October 2014 versus Club Brugge, the Finnish league is made up by semi professional teams and HJK are very dominant domestically. Most memorable results at home within the last year includes victories versus Torino and Copenhagen.
Astana, the champions of Kazakhstan have already impressed when they beat the Slovenian side, Maribor. Noticeably, Astana appeared dominant both home and away in that match up. If Maribor was a nightmare opponent, HJK is certainly one step below that, so Astana should really fancy their chances. Last year they faced AIK of Sweden, and beat them 0-3 away. AIK is a better side than HJK, and Astana have very good memories from playing in the Nordic countries (Sweden, and now possibly Finland)
Budget wise, Astana have the better material due to being a wealthier team, half the squad is made up by foreigners. Keep an eye on winger Twumasi and striker Zhukov. HJK have been declared favorites, but I see a different game. If Astana could control Maribor, it feel very likely that they will control HJK as well. Odds look very tasty, investing pretty solid units on this leg
Prediction: Astana PK (not to lose) @ 2.10 (3/10) Long term: Astana to qualify @ 1.67 (4/10) ___________________________________
Salzburg - Malmö
I am biased, I have always been. It was a massive success last year to back my home town team in Europe and actually made me an extra annual income pretty much due to being heavy underdogs in every game and surprised every single time.
Salzburg have a completely new team, due to missing out on Champions League 7 consecutive years, the owners have moved the project towards Red Bull Leipzig instead, therefore Salzburg have nearly a completely new lineup than previous year. Soriano remains the star up front, but other than that, it is a completely new defense including goalkeeper. Kevin Kampl and Mané were extremely vital, but have been very replaced in a mediocre fashion with unproven names. A new coach is on the sideline and he is under pressure already after losing the opening game versus newcomers Mattersburg with 2-1 in the Austrian league
Malmö, same scenario - completely new team, but the departures have been replaced by bigger and more expensive names, but the coach is still the same. Malmö's advantage is that they have just entered a good run, and their new players have started to deliver just in time for this clash. New Augsburg-loanee, striker Nikola Djurdjic scored in his Malmö debut and will pair up with Rosenberg in the attack. Malmö are already halfway through their season which means lots of competitive match fitness in their luggage. Salzburg have only played friendlies and one league game, and now suddenly are thrown into their most important game perhaps the entire season - not optimal for the hosts
If the chances last year were rated 80/20 for Salzburg, it is very much a closer affair this time, 58/42 in Salzburg's favor over two legs. Malmö should still not stand in +600/+700 here, but reasonably at +300 in my eyes, they are the team with the better flow at the moment. Do not expect a fierce atmosphere though, around 10 000 tickets have only been sold. I will place a patriot unit on Malmö to achieve something good on the road. A good result on the road, and Salzburg will arrive to "Hexenkessel" in Malmö, which means a "cauldron" (referring to the boiling atmosphere in the return leg)
Wonderful memories of this encounter, hopefully a replay is about to happen
Prediction: Malmö +1.5 AH @ 1.75 (2/10) Long term: Malmö to qualify @ 4.00 (2/10) *over 2 legs
Hi all Here follows my thoughts about two matchups tomorrow, sprinkling some units around, follow the reasoning if you are interested, or discuss freely and share your input
Have a good one everyone!
HJK - Astana
Finland versus Kazakstan, one of them will reach the playoff but personally my view on these odds are very misleading. HJK reached this stage by defeating Ventspils from Latvia, but did not convince and never really got tested to the limit, and Ventspils could have caused more harm for the Finnish side if they were more organized. However, kudos to HJK who have reached this far, which is an achievement in itself. While respecting the home record of HJK, with their latest loss coming in October 2014 versus Club Brugge, the Finnish league is made up by semi professional teams and HJK are very dominant domestically. Most memorable results at home within the last year includes victories versus Torino and Copenhagen.
Astana, the champions of Kazakhstan have already impressed when they beat the Slovenian side, Maribor. Noticeably, Astana appeared dominant both home and away in that match up. If Maribor was a nightmare opponent, HJK is certainly one step below that, so Astana should really fancy their chances. Last year they faced AIK of Sweden, and beat them 0-3 away. AIK is a better side than HJK, and Astana have very good memories from playing in the Nordic countries (Sweden, and now possibly Finland)
Budget wise, Astana have the better material due to being a wealthier team, half the squad is made up by foreigners. Keep an eye on winger Twumasi and striker Zhukov. HJK have been declared favorites, but I see a different game. If Astana could control Maribor, it feel very likely that they will control HJK as well. Odds look very tasty, investing pretty solid units on this leg
Prediction: Astana PK (not to lose) @ 2.10 (3/10) Long term: Astana to qualify @ 1.67 (4/10) ___________________________________
Salzburg - Malmö
I am biased, I have always been. It was a massive success last year to back my home town team in Europe and actually made me an extra annual income pretty much due to being heavy underdogs in every game and surprised every single time.
Salzburg have a completely new team, due to missing out on Champions League 7 consecutive years, the owners have moved the project towards Red Bull Leipzig instead, therefore Salzburg have nearly a completely new lineup than previous year. Soriano remains the star up front, but other than that, it is a completely new defense including goalkeeper. Kevin Kampl and Mané were extremely vital, but have been very replaced in a mediocre fashion with unproven names. A new coach is on the sideline and he is under pressure already after losing the opening game versus newcomers Mattersburg with 2-1 in the Austrian league
Malmö, same scenario - completely new team, but the departures have been replaced by bigger and more expensive names, but the coach is still the same. Malmö's advantage is that they have just entered a good run, and their new players have started to deliver just in time for this clash. New Augsburg-loanee, striker Nikola Djurdjic scored in his Malmö debut and will pair up with Rosenberg in the attack. Malmö are already halfway through their season which means lots of competitive match fitness in their luggage. Salzburg have only played friendlies and one league game, and now suddenly are thrown into their most important game perhaps the entire season - not optimal for the hosts
If the chances last year were rated 80/20 for Salzburg, it is very much a closer affair this time, 58/42 in Salzburg's favor over two legs. Malmö should still not stand in +600/+700 here, but reasonably at +300 in my eyes, they are the team with the better flow at the moment. Do not expect a fierce atmosphere though, around 10 000 tickets have only been sold. I will place a patriot unit on Malmö to achieve something good on the road. A good result on the road, and Salzburg will arrive to "Hexenkessel" in Malmö, which means a "cauldron" (referring to the boiling atmosphere in the return leg)
Wonderful memories of this encounter, hopefully a replay is about to happen
Prediction: Malmö +1.5 AH @ 1.75 (2/10) Long term: Malmö to qualify @ 4.00 (2/10) *over 2 legs
agree about HJK. i'm surprised that hjk is favorite here, they almost lost first round away game vs Ventspils scoring three late goals (first easily gifted penalty 75min and then 86+92min goals).
Astana in the other hand haven't started this seasons league so this match gets their full attention.
and, imo, hjk has tendency to collapse against better teams.
agree about HJK. i'm surprised that hjk is favorite here, they almost lost first round away game vs Ventspils scoring three late goals (first easily gifted penalty 75min and then 86+92min goals).
Astana in the other hand haven't started this seasons league so this match gets their full attention.
and, imo, hjk has tendency to collapse against better teams.
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