Cheers everyone. Just wanted to get this thread started well ahead of time - will be posting my NFL & EPL plays this year in this thread. Working and prepping for both seasons already and will have a lot of full season bets up soon. Looking forward to a profitable season.
A couple of notes: discussion is welcome. I don't know everything and love input regarding specific teams, tactics, matchups. I will try my best to respond to all. Also, I use flat betting for all of my units. It's not your typical American betting where -200 means risk 2 units to win 1 and +200 means risk 1 unit to win 2. Flat betting, the way I do it, weighs everything equally so that the amount I wager & the amount is equally distributed around the number of units I want to wager. For instance, 1 unit on +200 means risk 0.67 units to win 1.33 units and 1 unit on -150 means risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units. Thus, a 1 unit wager on a longshot future is risking very little to win just under 2 units (i.e. 1 unit on +1900 would be .1 units to win 1.9 units)
With that being said, good luck everyone in this upcoming season.
Cheers everyone. Just wanted to get this thread started well ahead of time - will be posting my NFL & EPL plays this year in this thread. Working and prepping for both seasons already and will have a lot of full season bets up soon. Looking forward to a profitable season.
A couple of notes: discussion is welcome. I don't know everything and love input regarding specific teams, tactics, matchups. I will try my best to respond to all. Also, I use flat betting for all of my units. It's not your typical American betting where -200 means risk 2 units to win 1 and +200 means risk 1 unit to win 2. Flat betting, the way I do it, weighs everything equally so that the amount I wager & the amount is equally distributed around the number of units I want to wager. For instance, 1 unit on +200 means risk 0.67 units to win 1.33 units and 1 unit on -150 means risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units. Thus, a 1 unit wager on a longshot future is risking very little to win just under 2 units (i.e. 1 unit on +1900 would be .1 units to win 1.9 units)
With that being said, good luck everyone in this upcoming season.
Denver Broncos: Typically, after a season like last year I would fading this team but they had an awesome offseason. Their lackluster defense should have some teeth now and their offense will still be incredible. Peyton Manning is the most over-prepared QB in the league and won’t let this team not make the playoffs – winning games in the playoffs is a different story and I don’t see a Super Bowl from this team unfortunately.
San Diego Chargers: I really like what the Chargers did in the offseason, it wasn’t much but it was effective. Their biggest weakness was their pass defense and they added Flowers in the secondary. As Phillip Rivers appears to have turned the corner I can see this team competing for a playoff spot again as they did last year.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs has the stars align for them last year to a certain extent. They had the easiest schedule, were least effected by injuries, and cruised to an 11-5 record. Their offseason was underwhelming as they lost some key defensive players causing me to be very pessimistic about this team moving forward. I think they will be a flop. Alex Smith has an awesome season last year and any regression will be trouble for this team. The same can be said about Jamaal Charles. And their Special Teams.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders had a real overhaul this offseason with a ton of additions and subtractions. I’m going to be cautious early with this team until I see what they’re made of but my first thought is skepticism about Matt Schaub. If he plays well, this team could push toward a winning record but ultimately I don’t see much change in their record from last year; too many holes to fill in one off-season.
Denver Broncos 12-4
San Diego Charges 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs 6-10
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs under 8.5 wins -140 (2.5 units)
Denver Broncos: Typically, after a season like last year I would fading this team but they had an awesome offseason. Their lackluster defense should have some teeth now and their offense will still be incredible. Peyton Manning is the most over-prepared QB in the league and won’t let this team not make the playoffs – winning games in the playoffs is a different story and I don’t see a Super Bowl from this team unfortunately.
San Diego Chargers: I really like what the Chargers did in the offseason, it wasn’t much but it was effective. Their biggest weakness was their pass defense and they added Flowers in the secondary. As Phillip Rivers appears to have turned the corner I can see this team competing for a playoff spot again as they did last year.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs has the stars align for them last year to a certain extent. They had the easiest schedule, were least effected by injuries, and cruised to an 11-5 record. Their offseason was underwhelming as they lost some key defensive players causing me to be very pessimistic about this team moving forward. I think they will be a flop. Alex Smith has an awesome season last year and any regression will be trouble for this team. The same can be said about Jamaal Charles. And their Special Teams.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders had a real overhaul this offseason with a ton of additions and subtractions. I’m going to be cautious early with this team until I see what they’re made of but my first thought is skepticism about Matt Schaub. If he plays well, this team could push toward a winning record but ultimately I don’t see much change in their record from last year; too many holes to fill in one off-season.
Denver Broncos 12-4
San Diego Charges 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs 6-10
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs under 8.5 wins -140 (2.5 units)
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck is the backbone of this team and while they have come a long way from where they were a couple of years ago, I think they take a step back this year. After going 11-5 I can see them having some difficulty with this schedule especially with the weak defense that they boast. I can’t back a team that has a defense ranked outside of the top 20 with little speak of in terms of offseason improvements.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had a surprisingly good season last year at 7-9 and I think they’re headed in the right direction. While they lost Johnson and Britt they backfilled with McCluster and new regime of coaching should help take Jake Locker to the next level. I think with their schedule and the team they have they can compete for this division.
Houston Texans: Similar to the Falcons, everyone is assuming the Texans will bounce back but I’m not sold. There are some major holes on this offense and they’re going to be led by an underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick; I don’t see them competing in the division. While the defense will be solid again this year I don’t see it improving enough to compensate for a below average offensive line and offense in general.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Not much to say here, this is the worst team in the NFL. They made some additions to the defense that should help abut in the end they really don’t have any substantial answers to the question: how will we win games? They will nip a couple of games like they did last year but I don’t see them as anything better than the 32nd best team in the league, bottom line.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck is the backbone of this team and while they have come a long way from where they were a couple of years ago, I think they take a step back this year. After going 11-5 I can see them having some difficulty with this schedule especially with the weak defense that they boast. I can’t back a team that has a defense ranked outside of the top 20 with little speak of in terms of offseason improvements.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had a surprisingly good season last year at 7-9 and I think they’re headed in the right direction. While they lost Johnson and Britt they backfilled with McCluster and new regime of coaching should help take Jake Locker to the next level. I think with their schedule and the team they have they can compete for this division.
Houston Texans: Similar to the Falcons, everyone is assuming the Texans will bounce back but I’m not sold. There are some major holes on this offense and they’re going to be led by an underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick; I don’t see them competing in the division. While the defense will be solid again this year I don’t see it improving enough to compensate for a below average offensive line and offense in general.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Not much to say here, this is the worst team in the NFL. They made some additions to the defense that should help abut in the end they really don’t have any substantial answers to the question: how will we win games? They will nip a couple of games like they did last year but I don’t see them as anything better than the 32nd best team in the league, bottom line.
Cincinnati Bengals: After a solid 11-5 season last year the Bengals really didn’t do anything in the offseason other than lose a couple of key defensive players. I have some concerns about this team repeating their performance last year and that’s before even evaluating Andy Dalton, who can be very inconsistent. They will make the playoffs on the back of their solid defense and the weak AFC but I’m not sure they do much after that.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had a tough season last year, especially on offense, but I fear there won’t be much improvement coming for their fans. They replaced Sanders with Moore at receiver and will have a new group of LBs on defense but not necessarily improvements. Their schedule isn’t too bad this year which will help them compete in the division but I think they ultimately come up short because they just didn’t improve enough in the off season.
Baltimore Ravens: One of the best front offices in football turned in another prudent offseason. Their offense was terrible last year so they added a receiving threat and bolstered the offensive line. Their defense should still be above average this year and with their improving offense, they should be in the mix for the division as they always are. The problem is, even with their improvements on offense, I don’t see them as having enough firepower to make significant noise in the AFC. My metrics had them ranked 31st last year on offense.
Cleveland Browns: There is a ton of hype around this team after drafting Manziel but I don’t really understand why. Their offense was just bad last year and they won’t have the services of Josh Gordon this year – how will they make up for that? Their defense will have to win them games again this year and while it is solid, I just don’t see it how they win any more games than they did last year, ignore the hype.
Cincinnati Bengals: After a solid 11-5 season last year the Bengals really didn’t do anything in the offseason other than lose a couple of key defensive players. I have some concerns about this team repeating their performance last year and that’s before even evaluating Andy Dalton, who can be very inconsistent. They will make the playoffs on the back of their solid defense and the weak AFC but I’m not sure they do much after that.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had a tough season last year, especially on offense, but I fear there won’t be much improvement coming for their fans. They replaced Sanders with Moore at receiver and will have a new group of LBs on defense but not necessarily improvements. Their schedule isn’t too bad this year which will help them compete in the division but I think they ultimately come up short because they just didn’t improve enough in the off season.
Baltimore Ravens: One of the best front offices in football turned in another prudent offseason. Their offense was terrible last year so they added a receiving threat and bolstered the offensive line. Their defense should still be above average this year and with their improving offense, they should be in the mix for the division as they always are. The problem is, even with their improvements on offense, I don’t see them as having enough firepower to make significant noise in the AFC. My metrics had them ranked 31st last year on offense.
Cleveland Browns: There is a ton of hype around this team after drafting Manziel but I don’t really understand why. Their offense was just bad last year and they won’t have the services of Josh Gordon this year – how will they make up for that? Their defense will have to win them games again this year and while it is solid, I just don’t see it how they win any more games than they did last year, ignore the hype.
New England Patriots: It’s tough to know what this team will look like this year as injuries played a large part of their season last year. Gronk and Vareen are such a large part of their scheme and they were hurt badly with rookie drops as well. I imagine those aspects will improve as will their defense which was suspect at times last year – they’ve added well in the offseason. In honestly, the AFC is pretty weak this year and the Patriots should be able to cruise to the Conference Championship even if they don’t impress too much.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins fought to 8-8 last year with a tough schedule and consolidated that with a solid offseason. I think this team has a bright future starting as early as this season. They didn’t lose much and added in key areas that they needed to be competitive (offensive line, defensive line). Tannehill is progressing very fast as a QB with a young, talented offense around him. I think they are far above NYJ and BUF and should be able to fight for a playoff position in the AFC this year.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills are another team with many question marks. They have a ton of young talent on offense (Spiller, Watkins, Manuel) but I’m not sure they have any pieces around them to make this a consistent unit. The defense was average last year and while I think it improves a bit, I don’t see it being an elite unit to make up for the inconsistent offense. When hitting all cylinders this is a scary team, but I only see that happening 1 or 2 games this year.
New York Jets: A lot of additions and subtractions on this team and I’m curious to see where it will put them. Simple math would say adding Vick, Decker, and Johnson to an 8-8 team with no offense would make them a playoff contender but I’m concerned about the losses they had on their defense. If their defense isn’t a top 10 side like they were last year I really don’t see Vick being a guy that can win you 9 or 10 games at this point in his career. They hype is there but I see another disappointing, mistake-filled season here.
New England Patriots: It’s tough to know what this team will look like this year as injuries played a large part of their season last year. Gronk and Vareen are such a large part of their scheme and they were hurt badly with rookie drops as well. I imagine those aspects will improve as will their defense which was suspect at times last year – they’ve added well in the offseason. In honestly, the AFC is pretty weak this year and the Patriots should be able to cruise to the Conference Championship even if they don’t impress too much.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins fought to 8-8 last year with a tough schedule and consolidated that with a solid offseason. I think this team has a bright future starting as early as this season. They didn’t lose much and added in key areas that they needed to be competitive (offensive line, defensive line). Tannehill is progressing very fast as a QB with a young, talented offense around him. I think they are far above NYJ and BUF and should be able to fight for a playoff position in the AFC this year.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills are another team with many question marks. They have a ton of young talent on offense (Spiller, Watkins, Manuel) but I’m not sure they have any pieces around them to make this a consistent unit. The defense was average last year and while I think it improves a bit, I don’t see it being an elite unit to make up for the inconsistent offense. When hitting all cylinders this is a scary team, but I only see that happening 1 or 2 games this year.
New York Jets: A lot of additions and subtractions on this team and I’m curious to see where it will put them. Simple math would say adding Vick, Decker, and Johnson to an 8-8 team with no offense would make them a playoff contender but I’m concerned about the losses they had on their defense. If their defense isn’t a top 10 side like they were last year I really don’t see Vick being a guy that can win you 9 or 10 games at this point in his career. They hype is there but I see another disappointing, mistake-filled season here.
Green Bay Packers: It’s hard to imagine this team losing Rodgers for an extended period and making the playoffs but they managed last year. Granted, it was more due to an inept division than their own doing, but still impressive. Nothing to think anything has changed to this year. The offense is obviously solid; I’m more curious to see how the defense performs this year. All they really added was Julius Peppers, which is definitely an upgrade, but it doesn’t make them a more stout defense. They should win the division but I’m not sure if they will do much after that.
Chicago Bears: It sounds odd but the Bears defense was dreadful last year, dreadful. I would imagine it will improve as they replace Peppers with Allen and filled in some other holes on that end of the field. The key to this team is Jay Cutler staying healthy, especially now that McCown is gone, and making sure that offense keeps purring. I think they are still just a couple of steps behind the Packers until their defense truly improves which we’ll have to wait and see.
Detroit Lions: This team is probably the most talented team in the NFL that has nothing to show for it. So many positions on their team has incredible players yet they can’t figure out how to churn out wins. I’d like to think a new regime of coaching will help to address this but I’m just not sure. Their offense was average last year, their defense just a tad better, and they didn’t make any major moves in the offseason to address either of these. They should put up a lot of points in games but I can see them spinning their wheels at times when they play better teams.
Minnesota Vikings: There are many question marks on this team. However, looking back to last year they actually had a decent defense with a good run game, two keys to having a successful NFL campaign. The rookie QB is a recipe for disaster in my opinion and you won’t find me betting on this team until he has proven himself. Other than AD the offense is empty and while I do like where their defense is headed is still has its own holes as well.
Green Bay Packers 10-6
Chicago Bears 8-8
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 4-12
No bets - lines are pretty spot on across the board.
Green Bay Packers: It’s hard to imagine this team losing Rodgers for an extended period and making the playoffs but they managed last year. Granted, it was more due to an inept division than their own doing, but still impressive. Nothing to think anything has changed to this year. The offense is obviously solid; I’m more curious to see how the defense performs this year. All they really added was Julius Peppers, which is definitely an upgrade, but it doesn’t make them a more stout defense. They should win the division but I’m not sure if they will do much after that.
Chicago Bears: It sounds odd but the Bears defense was dreadful last year, dreadful. I would imagine it will improve as they replace Peppers with Allen and filled in some other holes on that end of the field. The key to this team is Jay Cutler staying healthy, especially now that McCown is gone, and making sure that offense keeps purring. I think they are still just a couple of steps behind the Packers until their defense truly improves which we’ll have to wait and see.
Detroit Lions: This team is probably the most talented team in the NFL that has nothing to show for it. So many positions on their team has incredible players yet they can’t figure out how to churn out wins. I’d like to think a new regime of coaching will help to address this but I’m just not sure. Their offense was average last year, their defense just a tad better, and they didn’t make any major moves in the offseason to address either of these. They should put up a lot of points in games but I can see them spinning their wheels at times when they play better teams.
Minnesota Vikings: There are many question marks on this team. However, looking back to last year they actually had a decent defense with a good run game, two keys to having a successful NFL campaign. The rookie QB is a recipe for disaster in my opinion and you won’t find me betting on this team until he has proven himself. Other than AD the offense is empty and while I do like where their defense is headed is still has its own holes as well.
Green Bay Packers 10-6
Chicago Bears 8-8
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 4-12
No bets - lines are pretty spot on across the board.
Seattle Seahawks: The defending Super Bowl Champs are favorites to repeat and for good reason. The defense is scary good and they surprisingly also had a top 5 offense last year. I don’t have much to say negatively about this team other than the schedule they face – it will wear them down a bit. But, they are still clearly the best team in the league and should that again this year by winning this division.
San Francisco 49ers: It is unfortunate this team is in the West because they would breeze through any other division in the league. But, they are second best here. Their offense is solid and will get Crabtree back for the entire years while thee defense will only get better this year in my opinion. Their schedule is a tad easier than Seattle’s so I actually think they could be close on their tail for the division title. If Kaepernick can be more consistent than last year then there’s no reason this team can’t make a push for a Championship.
Arizona Cardinals: Another team that is being disrespected in the lead up to the season is the Cardinals. They navigated the 5th toughest schedule last year to a 10-6 record and are returning a very similar team to forefront this year. Their schedule and division is tough again, no doubt, but I think they will be a dark horse here on the back of their solid defense – it was top 5 last year in my metrics.
St Louis Rams: The Rams are just in a bad spot as they are still looking to rebuild and are in the absolute toughest division. I actually like what they did in the offseason getting Kenny Britt for a returning Sam Bradford but their defense is essentially the same, which just won’t do in this division. This team is a couple of years away from being competitive.
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 11-5
Arizona Cardinals 10-6
Saint Louis Rams 6-10
Arizona Cardinals over 7.5 wins -145 (1.5 units)
Arizona Cardinals make playoffs +325 (1.5 units)
Arizona Cardinals to win NFC West +850 (1.5 units)
Seattle Seahawks: The defending Super Bowl Champs are favorites to repeat and for good reason. The defense is scary good and they surprisingly also had a top 5 offense last year. I don’t have much to say negatively about this team other than the schedule they face – it will wear them down a bit. But, they are still clearly the best team in the league and should that again this year by winning this division.
San Francisco 49ers: It is unfortunate this team is in the West because they would breeze through any other division in the league. But, they are second best here. Their offense is solid and will get Crabtree back for the entire years while thee defense will only get better this year in my opinion. Their schedule is a tad easier than Seattle’s so I actually think they could be close on their tail for the division title. If Kaepernick can be more consistent than last year then there’s no reason this team can’t make a push for a Championship.
Arizona Cardinals: Another team that is being disrespected in the lead up to the season is the Cardinals. They navigated the 5th toughest schedule last year to a 10-6 record and are returning a very similar team to forefront this year. Their schedule and division is tough again, no doubt, but I think they will be a dark horse here on the back of their solid defense – it was top 5 last year in my metrics.
St Louis Rams: The Rams are just in a bad spot as they are still looking to rebuild and are in the absolute toughest division. I actually like what they did in the offseason getting Kenny Britt for a returning Sam Bradford but their defense is essentially the same, which just won’t do in this division. This team is a couple of years away from being competitive.
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 11-5
Arizona Cardinals 10-6
Saint Louis Rams 6-10
Arizona Cardinals over 7.5 wins -145 (1.5 units)
Arizona Cardinals make playoffs +325 (1.5 units)
Arizona Cardinals to win NFC West +850 (1.5 units)
Philadelphia Eagles: Probably one of the surprises of the league last year was the Eagles’ success. They did have an extremely easy schedule and battled very little on the injury front. Despite that, I still see them as the class of the NFC East. Losing Desean Jackson will obviously hurt them but Darren Sproles should replace some of that explosiveness in a different way. They will outscore many teams as their defense is not top notch but their offense alone is good enough to get them through this division.
Dallas Cowboys: I have lost pre season wagers on this team 2 years in a row and it is hard to figure out what this team is going to be like this year. Their defense was hurt with injuries last year but they lost their two best defensive players this year to free agency and injury already. Tony Romo will lead this offense to some victories this year but this team just doesn’t have enough to win; even if they did I don’t know if you could feel comfortable that they even know how to win.
New York Giants: Speaking of teams that I don’t know what to do with. Eli Manning had the worst season of his career last year and his defensive was absolutely decimated with injuries. Coming into this year, however, I don’t see how much of that changes. It’s hard to back a team that led the league in INTs last year and was very near the bottom in rushing yards – that’s not a recipe for success. Their defense is in the top half of the league but that’s about where it ends. The offense will struggle and their defense will have to keep them in games; which I don’t think it can.
Washington Redskins: Before anything else it’s only fair to point out that this is the team I support. I’d like to say everything that went wrong last year did but that’s not entirely true – the issues that hit this team were internal. A new coaching regime should help, as will Desean Jackson and some key defensive players, but I think it may be too much of an overreaction. RGIII is an unknown quantity – his third season will be somewhere between his rookie and sophomore seasons but that’s about all I know. I need to see them play a couple of games before I back them.
Philadelphia Eagles: Probably one of the surprises of the league last year was the Eagles’ success. They did have an extremely easy schedule and battled very little on the injury front. Despite that, I still see them as the class of the NFC East. Losing Desean Jackson will obviously hurt them but Darren Sproles should replace some of that explosiveness in a different way. They will outscore many teams as their defense is not top notch but their offense alone is good enough to get them through this division.
Dallas Cowboys: I have lost pre season wagers on this team 2 years in a row and it is hard to figure out what this team is going to be like this year. Their defense was hurt with injuries last year but they lost their two best defensive players this year to free agency and injury already. Tony Romo will lead this offense to some victories this year but this team just doesn’t have enough to win; even if they did I don’t know if you could feel comfortable that they even know how to win.
New York Giants: Speaking of teams that I don’t know what to do with. Eli Manning had the worst season of his career last year and his defensive was absolutely decimated with injuries. Coming into this year, however, I don’t see how much of that changes. It’s hard to back a team that led the league in INTs last year and was very near the bottom in rushing yards – that’s not a recipe for success. Their defense is in the top half of the league but that’s about where it ends. The offense will struggle and their defense will have to keep them in games; which I don’t think it can.
Washington Redskins: Before anything else it’s only fair to point out that this is the team I support. I’d like to say everything that went wrong last year did but that’s not entirely true – the issues that hit this team were internal. A new coaching regime should help, as will Desean Jackson and some key defensive players, but I think it may be too much of an overreaction. RGIII is an unknown quantity – his third season will be somewhere between his rookie and sophomore seasons but that’s about all I know. I need to see them play a couple of games before I back them.
New Orleans Saints: This team will be very interesting to watch this year. Losing Darren Sproles should help to transition this offense to better balance allowing them to establish a more consistent running game and relying less on Drew Brees. In addition, their defense should be better than last year, which was hurt with injuries all over the field and gained some key positional players. The Saints are fair favorites for this division and should make some noise in the NFC.
Carolina Panthers: For some reason there seems to be a feeling that this team will regress but I disagree. They have what it takes to win – a great defense and relentless run game. Their receiving corp will be a completely new group of guys but in the grand scheme, their receivers really didn’t matter last year. The key is the run game and the defense, which for the most part isn’t changed. The schedule is brutal this year but I think the public is remembering the playoff game more than the 12 wins last year – they will compete in this division and the NFC again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs played the most difficult schedule last year and should get some respite this year. They also had some big injuries on their offense, which they won’t have to deal with. This team is building for the future and is headed in the right direction but I think it’s just a few years too early for this group. They have plenty of potential but I don’t think the backbone of the defense is good enough to stand on to push for the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons: Everyone is making the assumption this team bounces back this year; I’m not sold. Julio Jones and some key offensive/defensive lineman were lost last year to injury, I get it. However, what did they do to address the underlying issues? Their defense has some major holes and all they looked to do in free agency was replace the players lost rather than improving. I’m sure they will win more games than last year but I’m not making the leap to assuming they compete for the division again.
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Carolina Panthers 10-6
Tamp Bay Buccaneers 6-10
Atlanta Falcons 5-11
Carolina Panthers over 8.5 wins +125 (2 units)
Carolina Panthers to make playoffs +205 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win NFC South +290 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win NFC +1925 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win Super Bowl +4400 (1.5 units)
New Orleans Saints: This team will be very interesting to watch this year. Losing Darren Sproles should help to transition this offense to better balance allowing them to establish a more consistent running game and relying less on Drew Brees. In addition, their defense should be better than last year, which was hurt with injuries all over the field and gained some key positional players. The Saints are fair favorites for this division and should make some noise in the NFC.
Carolina Panthers: For some reason there seems to be a feeling that this team will regress but I disagree. They have what it takes to win – a great defense and relentless run game. Their receiving corp will be a completely new group of guys but in the grand scheme, their receivers really didn’t matter last year. The key is the run game and the defense, which for the most part isn’t changed. The schedule is brutal this year but I think the public is remembering the playoff game more than the 12 wins last year – they will compete in this division and the NFC again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs played the most difficult schedule last year and should get some respite this year. They also had some big injuries on their offense, which they won’t have to deal with. This team is building for the future and is headed in the right direction but I think it’s just a few years too early for this group. They have plenty of potential but I don’t think the backbone of the defense is good enough to stand on to push for the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons: Everyone is making the assumption this team bounces back this year; I’m not sold. Julio Jones and some key offensive/defensive lineman were lost last year to injury, I get it. However, what did they do to address the underlying issues? Their defense has some major holes and all they looked to do in free agency was replace the players lost rather than improving. I’m sure they will win more games than last year but I’m not making the leap to assuming they compete for the division again.
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Carolina Panthers 10-6
Tamp Bay Buccaneers 6-10
Atlanta Falcons 5-11
Carolina Panthers over 8.5 wins +125 (2 units)
Carolina Panthers to make playoffs +205 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win NFC South +290 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win NFC +1925 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers to win Super Bowl +4400 (1.5 units)
Just want to point out that I will have my EPL previews and pre-season bets up in a week or so. It should be noted that it's much easier to make preseason bets in the NFL early because most free agency signings are already completed. The EPL rosters could still drastically change and I'd like to at least see what each team has at its disposal before placing a wager (I.e. Blackpool in the English Championship currently only has 8 players signed to a contract).
A summary of my wagering style for anyone who chooses to follow. My NFL pre-season bets are a much larger chunk of the bets I'll be making in that league compared to EPL. This is mainly due to the length of the season; only 16 games. I could think the Panthers will be great and if they win their first 3 games easily I could fail to find a valuable position to back them all season. EPL pre-season bets are few and far between. Also, scheduling priority is unknown. I know which teams will have European obligations themis year but I dont know how each views them - an honor or a distraction. The same can be said abkut the 2 domestic cups. Last, tactics play such a huge part in football betting that I typically want to see how teams play against other types of teams before making big wagers. It's also because of tactics that I will make a lot of halftime wagers of games I'm watching; I will try my best to get those posted but obviously those are tough to tail as they only give you 15 minutes at the most.
As I said, good luck everyone looking forward to the seasons next month.
Just want to point out that I will have my EPL previews and pre-season bets up in a week or so. It should be noted that it's much easier to make preseason bets in the NFL early because most free agency signings are already completed. The EPL rosters could still drastically change and I'd like to at least see what each team has at its disposal before placing a wager (I.e. Blackpool in the English Championship currently only has 8 players signed to a contract).
A summary of my wagering style for anyone who chooses to follow. My NFL pre-season bets are a much larger chunk of the bets I'll be making in that league compared to EPL. This is mainly due to the length of the season; only 16 games. I could think the Panthers will be great and if they win their first 3 games easily I could fail to find a valuable position to back them all season. EPL pre-season bets are few and far between. Also, scheduling priority is unknown. I know which teams will have European obligations themis year but I dont know how each views them - an honor or a distraction. The same can be said abkut the 2 domestic cups. Last, tactics play such a huge part in football betting that I typically want to see how teams play against other types of teams before making big wagers. It's also because of tactics that I will make a lot of halftime wagers of games I'm watching; I will try my best to get those posted but obviously those are tough to tail as they only give you 15 minutes at the most.
As I said, good luck everyone looking forward to the seasons next month.
Will be posting NFL and EPL this year; would much rather post in this Football Forum than the other - been posting here much longer and much better group of posters here.
Will be posting NFL and EPL this year; would much rather post in this Football Forum than the other - been posting here much longer and much better group of posters here.
Chelsea: Looking back to last year, Chelsea’s biggest struggle was the lack of a great striker threat. That final superb finish was just missing. Well they’ve addressed that by bringing in Costa & Drogba (although they did lose Eto’o & Ba) which means they should have that quality in the final third. They were 7th in the league in points taken against the bottom half of the table and those additions will certainly help. My biggest question mark now is what Mourinho will do with all of the quality in midfield? He has Fabregras, Oscar, Hazard, Willian, Ramires of which I can’t see more than 3 being on the field at the same time. Bottom line: Chelsea have strengthened where they needed to and are fair favorites for the league and will duke it out with Man City down the stretch.
Manchester City: First off, I must admit I’m a City supporter. After last season, it was clear that the quality wasn’t missing from the starting 11 – it was depth up the middle of the field. Behind Toure & Fernandinho there are not many options and similar things can be said about the depth behind Kompany. With Fernando already signed and Mangala signing soon it appears those two needs will be addressed. The biggest interest for me with this team is how many strikers Pelligrini will deploy early in the season. With Negredo hurt I would imagine seeing more 4-5-1 which means more possession; just something to keep in mind when imagining how their matches will go. Bottom line: Man City have also strengthened where they needed to and while it isn’t flashy they have just as complete of a squad as Chelsea – should be a two team race for the league.
Champions League Contenders
Arsenal: Something I didn’t expect this offseason was to see Arsenal spending but they sure are. Debuchy backfills the loss of Sagna and more importantly, Alexis Sanchez has been brought in to strengthen their quality up front. While I love the ladder purchase, this isn’t what they needed the most – they need some depth in the final third. Behind Giroud, they have no one. Now, if Wenger plans to play Sanchez centrally then ignore my point but I imagine he’ll be on the wing to use his pace. Arsenal’s struggles last year were not with the boring fixtures but the high profile fixtures against other top clubs – Sanchez helps in that department. Bottom line: Arsenal have the starting XI to compete with the top teams but they do not have the full team to win the league. The lack of depth at Striker and Center Back will hinder them, especially if injuries hurt them. They should qualify for the CL easily but not much more than that.
Liverpool: This is a very polarizing team coming into the season. The pessimists will say the Reds lost 30+ goals from Suarez and now have to navigate Champions League fixtures for the first time. The optimists will says they’ve improved their depth with Cam, Markovic, Lallana, and Lambert and will have no problem competing on both fronts. I tend to lean more towards the ladder but there’s no doubt that they will miss Suarez. When you lose your top striker, it’s not the hat tricks and dominance that you miss – it’s that 0-0 relaxed game that only takes one moment of brilliance to take down the 3 points. That’s why they won’t compete for the league this year. Bottom line: Liverpool will no doubt feel the void of Suarez as well as the grind of the Champion’s League but don’t discount Brendan Rogers. He will get them wins, in style, and have them in the top 4 at the end of the season.
Manchester United: I can’t help but think there’s an overreaction to the Red Devils improvements in the off season. Van Gaal, while a great tactician, hasn’t been in the BPL and let’s be honest about what he did at the World Cup. You could argue all he did was beat the teams he was supposed to (now that Spain is exposed, Chile, Australia, Costa Rica) and then got eliminated by a better team. Either way, I’m always weary about a complete overhaul in tactics in the off season – not whether the players will buy in but if they’ll be able to execute early. I can imagine some struggles early with games they should win. Bottom line: Manchester United will have the most offseason changes and while I admit they’ll be better than last year I’m not convinced they are a top 4 team yet. They need to prove that they’ve sorted everything out before I’m backing them.
Chelsea: Looking back to last year, Chelsea’s biggest struggle was the lack of a great striker threat. That final superb finish was just missing. Well they’ve addressed that by bringing in Costa & Drogba (although they did lose Eto’o & Ba) which means they should have that quality in the final third. They were 7th in the league in points taken against the bottom half of the table and those additions will certainly help. My biggest question mark now is what Mourinho will do with all of the quality in midfield? He has Fabregras, Oscar, Hazard, Willian, Ramires of which I can’t see more than 3 being on the field at the same time. Bottom line: Chelsea have strengthened where they needed to and are fair favorites for the league and will duke it out with Man City down the stretch.
Manchester City: First off, I must admit I’m a City supporter. After last season, it was clear that the quality wasn’t missing from the starting 11 – it was depth up the middle of the field. Behind Toure & Fernandinho there are not many options and similar things can be said about the depth behind Kompany. With Fernando already signed and Mangala signing soon it appears those two needs will be addressed. The biggest interest for me with this team is how many strikers Pelligrini will deploy early in the season. With Negredo hurt I would imagine seeing more 4-5-1 which means more possession; just something to keep in mind when imagining how their matches will go. Bottom line: Man City have also strengthened where they needed to and while it isn’t flashy they have just as complete of a squad as Chelsea – should be a two team race for the league.
Champions League Contenders
Arsenal: Something I didn’t expect this offseason was to see Arsenal spending but they sure are. Debuchy backfills the loss of Sagna and more importantly, Alexis Sanchez has been brought in to strengthen their quality up front. While I love the ladder purchase, this isn’t what they needed the most – they need some depth in the final third. Behind Giroud, they have no one. Now, if Wenger plans to play Sanchez centrally then ignore my point but I imagine he’ll be on the wing to use his pace. Arsenal’s struggles last year were not with the boring fixtures but the high profile fixtures against other top clubs – Sanchez helps in that department. Bottom line: Arsenal have the starting XI to compete with the top teams but they do not have the full team to win the league. The lack of depth at Striker and Center Back will hinder them, especially if injuries hurt them. They should qualify for the CL easily but not much more than that.
Liverpool: This is a very polarizing team coming into the season. The pessimists will say the Reds lost 30+ goals from Suarez and now have to navigate Champions League fixtures for the first time. The optimists will says they’ve improved their depth with Cam, Markovic, Lallana, and Lambert and will have no problem competing on both fronts. I tend to lean more towards the ladder but there’s no doubt that they will miss Suarez. When you lose your top striker, it’s not the hat tricks and dominance that you miss – it’s that 0-0 relaxed game that only takes one moment of brilliance to take down the 3 points. That’s why they won’t compete for the league this year. Bottom line: Liverpool will no doubt feel the void of Suarez as well as the grind of the Champion’s League but don’t discount Brendan Rogers. He will get them wins, in style, and have them in the top 4 at the end of the season.
Manchester United: I can’t help but think there’s an overreaction to the Red Devils improvements in the off season. Van Gaal, while a great tactician, hasn’t been in the BPL and let’s be honest about what he did at the World Cup. You could argue all he did was beat the teams he was supposed to (now that Spain is exposed, Chile, Australia, Costa Rica) and then got eliminated by a better team. Either way, I’m always weary about a complete overhaul in tactics in the off season – not whether the players will buy in but if they’ll be able to execute early. I can imagine some struggles early with games they should win. Bottom line: Manchester United will have the most offseason changes and while I admit they’ll be better than last year I’m not convinced they are a top 4 team yet. They need to prove that they’ve sorted everything out before I’m backing them.
Tottenham: After the sale of Bale last season, Tottenham appeared to have traded away quality for quantity to strengthen the team. The problem is that most of those purchases under performed. Coming into this season, the only purchase to speak of is Davies in the back; other than that it’s the same team. Hopefully a season of BPL will help the like of Paulinho and Soldado to get back on track but who knows. Bottom line: Tottenham have a long way to go to get back to the Champion’s League unless their quality players improve from last year. Until seeing that, they are not a top 4 team.
Everton: Roberto Martinez has Everton playing some beautiful football. What is my main concern coming into this season? Lukaku. If he isn’t back at the club they will be missing that final quality (similar to what Chelsea were missing last year) against teams that they are clearly better than. Bottom line: Everton have come a long way in the last two years but I don’t see them making the leap to Champions League. They are cemented in the top 6 but that’s about it.
Middle of the Table
Newcastle United: The best offseason of the mid-tier teams might have to go to Newcastle. They’ve added depth all over the field (Colback, Janmaat, Riviere, Cabella) that will help the inconsistences that the Magpies battled last season. If I were backing O/U point totals this would be an over team I would choose as I see them finishing in 7th based on these additions.
Swansea: Let’s not forget that Swansea had to battle the Europa League last season – those extra couple of fixtures no doubt hindered a small team like this. I can see them bouncing back into the top 8 this season with their focus on the league and the addition of Siggurdson in the midfield.
Stoke City: I have a couple of questions about Stoke this year. In their alleged transition away from a long-ball side I’m wondering why they have targeted the transfers that they’ve brought in. However, they have the quality to finish in the top half this season – I will be very attentive to how their tactics play out early the season.
Southampton: It’s tough to know exactly what to make of Southampton this year. They almost have to regress a little bit with the losses of arguably their 3 best players. But, they have spent well and I don’t think those losses are enough to push them in to the bottom half of the table – they will be safe throughout the season.
Tottenham: After the sale of Bale last season, Tottenham appeared to have traded away quality for quantity to strengthen the team. The problem is that most of those purchases under performed. Coming into this season, the only purchase to speak of is Davies in the back; other than that it’s the same team. Hopefully a season of BPL will help the like of Paulinho and Soldado to get back on track but who knows. Bottom line: Tottenham have a long way to go to get back to the Champion’s League unless their quality players improve from last year. Until seeing that, they are not a top 4 team.
Everton: Roberto Martinez has Everton playing some beautiful football. What is my main concern coming into this season? Lukaku. If he isn’t back at the club they will be missing that final quality (similar to what Chelsea were missing last year) against teams that they are clearly better than. Bottom line: Everton have come a long way in the last two years but I don’t see them making the leap to Champions League. They are cemented in the top 6 but that’s about it.
Middle of the Table
Newcastle United: The best offseason of the mid-tier teams might have to go to Newcastle. They’ve added depth all over the field (Colback, Janmaat, Riviere, Cabella) that will help the inconsistences that the Magpies battled last season. If I were backing O/U point totals this would be an over team I would choose as I see them finishing in 7th based on these additions.
Swansea: Let’s not forget that Swansea had to battle the Europa League last season – those extra couple of fixtures no doubt hindered a small team like this. I can see them bouncing back into the top 8 this season with their focus on the league and the addition of Siggurdson in the midfield.
Stoke City: I have a couple of questions about Stoke this year. In their alleged transition away from a long-ball side I’m wondering why they have targeted the transfers that they’ve brought in. However, they have the quality to finish in the top half this season – I will be very attentive to how their tactics play out early the season.
Southampton: It’s tough to know exactly what to make of Southampton this year. They almost have to regress a little bit with the losses of arguably their 3 best players. But, they have spent well and I don’t think those losses are enough to push them in to the bottom half of the table – they will be safe throughout the season.
West Ham: A lot of small additions to this squad as well as Enner Valencia which is a big plus. My only concern is that Valencia doesn’t fit the mold of what West Ham was trying to do last year so I think we could see some growing pains. If this were my team, I would continue to park the bus and let Valencia hit the opponents on the counter in order to utilize his speed. Either way, West Ham will be in the bottom half of the table but not truly in danger.
Aston Villa: The additions of Richardson, Cole, and Senderos will certainly help this year for Aston Villa. While they will be in the bottom half of the field I don’t see them truly fighting for their lives down the stretch. The key to this team is keeping their talent up front healthy as they lack depth a little bit there.
Crystal Palace: Tony Pulis did wonders with this team last year. Their biggest struggle was finding a way to get points against the top of the table – something he should be able to help with this year. However, they lack the quality to truly be safe throughout the season and a couple of injuries could see them in the bottom 3 at times this season.
Sunderland: After the hot finish down the stretch, Sunderland have now had an overhaul of personnel coming into the season. I can’t place them any higher than the bottom of the table until I’ve seen them play. I imagine they can build off their finish last season but let’s not forget how much they really did struggle early in the season.
Hull City: Of the teams that are returning from last year, Hull City are one of the favorites to be relegated, and for good reason. They really don’t have much quality throughout their squad and haven’t done much to improve. I will point out that last year they made it to the FA Cup Final, which switched a focus away from some league, games. Assuming that doesn’t happen – they should improve a couple of points.
West Brom: I’m pretty confident this team is going to get relegated this season. Looking back to last season, they lost nearly 70 league games worth of Defenders (Reid, Jones, Ridgewell). West Brom will be on the backfoot a lot and without a cohesive back four I can see a lot of struggles against better teams.
Newly Promoted
I don’t know much about the newly promoted teams as I haven’t watched them each since they were last in the league. I will tread lightly until I understand their personnel and tactics. From the little bit of research I’ve done, it could be a good bet that Burnley stays up as they seem to be the sexy pick to get relegated. They are stingy and should get enough points at home to give themselves a chance.
West Ham: A lot of small additions to this squad as well as Enner Valencia which is a big plus. My only concern is that Valencia doesn’t fit the mold of what West Ham was trying to do last year so I think we could see some growing pains. If this were my team, I would continue to park the bus and let Valencia hit the opponents on the counter in order to utilize his speed. Either way, West Ham will be in the bottom half of the table but not truly in danger.
Aston Villa: The additions of Richardson, Cole, and Senderos will certainly help this year for Aston Villa. While they will be in the bottom half of the field I don’t see them truly fighting for their lives down the stretch. The key to this team is keeping their talent up front healthy as they lack depth a little bit there.
Crystal Palace: Tony Pulis did wonders with this team last year. Their biggest struggle was finding a way to get points against the top of the table – something he should be able to help with this year. However, they lack the quality to truly be safe throughout the season and a couple of injuries could see them in the bottom 3 at times this season.
Sunderland: After the hot finish down the stretch, Sunderland have now had an overhaul of personnel coming into the season. I can’t place them any higher than the bottom of the table until I’ve seen them play. I imagine they can build off their finish last season but let’s not forget how much they really did struggle early in the season.
Hull City: Of the teams that are returning from last year, Hull City are one of the favorites to be relegated, and for good reason. They really don’t have much quality throughout their squad and haven’t done much to improve. I will point out that last year they made it to the FA Cup Final, which switched a focus away from some league, games. Assuming that doesn’t happen – they should improve a couple of points.
West Brom: I’m pretty confident this team is going to get relegated this season. Looking back to last season, they lost nearly 70 league games worth of Defenders (Reid, Jones, Ridgewell). West Brom will be on the backfoot a lot and without a cohesive back four I can see a lot of struggles against better teams.
Newly Promoted
I don’t know much about the newly promoted teams as I haven’t watched them each since they were last in the league. I will tread lightly until I understand their personnel and tactics. From the little bit of research I’ve done, it could be a good bet that Burnley stays up as they seem to be the sexy pick to get relegated. They are stingy and should get enough points at home to give themselves a chance.
I will be waiting to put this bet in but I'll be backing Chelsea & Manchester City to win the league. I just think the gap in quality and consistency is too great there - Arsenal are missing the depth, Man U have too much change, and Liverpool have the extra fixtures to worry about. I want to see what other changes are made for personnel before making the bet.
I will be waiting to put this bet in but I'll be backing Chelsea & Manchester City to win the league. I just think the gap in quality and consistency is too great there - Arsenal are missing the depth, Man U have too much change, and Liverpool have the extra fixtures to worry about. I want to see what other changes are made for personnel before making the bet.
I will be waiting to put this bet in but I'll be backing Chelsea & Manchester City to win the league. I just think the gap in quality and consistency is too great there - Arsenal are missing the depth, Man U have too much change, and Liverpool have the extra fixtures to worry about. I want to see what other changes are made for personnel before making the bet.
Three weeks left.
GL ark
some nice analysis
agree with chelsea and city dominating but if u back both, you're looking at a lot of juice, both are around 2/1 to win the league.
and Bake wont like me saying it but I really like the Iggles as well this year and agree about fading Texans.
I will be waiting to put this bet in but I'll be backing Chelsea & Manchester City to win the league. I just think the gap in quality and consistency is too great there - Arsenal are missing the depth, Man U have too much change, and Liverpool have the extra fixtures to worry about. I want to see what other changes are made for personnel before making the bet.
Three weeks left.
GL ark
some nice analysis
agree with chelsea and city dominating but if u back both, you're looking at a lot of juice, both are around 2/1 to win the league.
and Bake wont like me saying it but I really like the Iggles as well this year and agree about fading Texans.
agree with chelsea and city dominating but if u back both, you're looking at a lot of juice, both are around 2/1 to win the league.
and Bake wont like me saying it but I really like the Iggles as well this year and agree about fading Texans.
Good to see you bollox
I'm not usually a juice drinker but I think their could be value at 2/1 for either team to win as I just don't see anyone else having what it takes right now. I need to think about it some more but they are the only 2 teams that don't have question marks right now. I certainly think they win the league 7 or 8 times out of 10.
agree with chelsea and city dominating but if u back both, you're looking at a lot of juice, both are around 2/1 to win the league.
and Bake wont like me saying it but I really like the Iggles as well this year and agree about fading Texans.
Good to see you bollox
I'm not usually a juice drinker but I think their could be value at 2/1 for either team to win as I just don't see anyone else having what it takes right now. I need to think about it some more but they are the only 2 teams that don't have question marks right now. I certainly think they win the league 7 or 8 times out of 10.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
Premier League Outright Manchester City OR Chelsea -169 (3 units): The only future I will be playing in the EPL and it's pretty straight forward - I just don't see any other teams winning this league (see above for more in depth analysis). Everton & Tottenham lack too much quality. Arsenal do not have the depth up front to compete for 38 games. Liverpool have traded quality for depth and have a longer list of fixtures this year. Man U have a ton of changes to make from last year & still lack a lot of quality in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Chelsea are vastly improved from last with their numerous transfers and Man City have improved their depth without losing anything.
Premier League Outright Manchester City OR Chelsea -169 (3 units): The only future I will be playing in the EPL and it's pretty straight forward - I just don't see any other teams winning this league (see above for more in depth analysis). Everton & Tottenham lack too much quality. Arsenal do not have the depth up front to compete for 38 games. Liverpool have traded quality for depth and have a longer list of fixtures this year. Man U have a ton of changes to make from last year & still lack a lot of quality in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Chelsea are vastly improved from last with their numerous transfers and Man City have improved their depth without losing anything.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
Added Manchester City +143 (0.25 units) due to line movement. Starting lineups are out and it's what was expected a lot of big names missing from both sides. City look like they'll be lining up in their typical 4-4-2 setup. I'm curious to see how Arsenal line-up as Sanoga will be up top but Sanchez is the only possibility for a winger. Sanchez will either play more centrally in a 4-4-1-1 / 4-4-2 or Ramsey will be out on the wing somewhat out of place.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
Added Manchester City +143 (0.25 units) due to line movement. Starting lineups are out and it's what was expected a lot of big names missing from both sides. City look like they'll be lining up in their typical 4-4-2 setup. I'm curious to see how Arsenal line-up as Sanoga will be up top but Sanchez is the only possibility for a winger. Sanchez will either play more centrally in a 4-4-1-1 / 4-4-2 or Ramsey will be out on the wing somewhat out of place.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
LOSS -1.103 units
Record: 0-1-0 -1.103 units
EPL: 0-1-0 -1.103 units
NFL: 0-0-0 +0.000 units
What we learned: I don't think we can take much away from how Manchester City performed as they were on the back foot most of the day because of the quality that they were missing - it was very evident in their back line. Their fullbacks couldn't help to keep possession, only attack, and Boyata/Nastasic looked terrible. We can learn more about what Arsenal will look like this year. As predicted, Sanchez will bring a lot to the table in space, which was most evident on Arsenal's second goal on the break. This should allow the Gunners to be more competitive against the betters teams when they aren't forced to hold most of the possession. However, I wasn't impressed by Sanchez in the stagnant flow of the game - the style that Arsenal will play against 75% of the EPL.
Community Shield Manchester City v Arsenal - Manchester City +123 (1 unit): I typically don't like betting on "meaningless" games and that's exactly what I consider this CS match. If it were up to either team, I think they'd pass. I would imagine this is a little more carefree than a typical league game and a little more open as neither team ultimately wants to go to ET. Going solely off of last season, Arsenal's only flaw was their inability to compete with the top teams. They were excellent at breaking down the lesser teams but were just always missing that extra quality against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and City. Obviously bringing in Sanchez will help but that's just about all they've done. It's a step in the right direction and will give them more of a counter attacking flair but I need to see it at work first. Wenger has already said his WC stars will not be ready for the beginning of the season so their squad will also be missing the likes of Ozil, Mertesacker, and possibly Giroud at the very minimum - that's three starters and shouldn't be overlooked. Manchester City has not made a bunch of noise in the offseason and for good reason - they really didn't have to. They dominated Arsenal last year and should be able to field a similar squad again in this matchup. The bottom line here is that Arsenal haven't made enough changes to change the results of last year, not to mention they're missing some key players. Like I said, not a fan of betting on a meaningless game, especially on the favorite, but there is enough narrative to support it here.
LOSS -1.103 units
Record: 0-1-0 -1.103 units
EPL: 0-1-0 -1.103 units
NFL: 0-0-0 +0.000 units
What we learned: I don't think we can take much away from how Manchester City performed as they were on the back foot most of the day because of the quality that they were missing - it was very evident in their back line. Their fullbacks couldn't help to keep possession, only attack, and Boyata/Nastasic looked terrible. We can learn more about what Arsenal will look like this year. As predicted, Sanchez will bring a lot to the table in space, which was most evident on Arsenal's second goal on the break. This should allow the Gunners to be more competitive against the betters teams when they aren't forced to hold most of the possession. However, I wasn't impressed by Sanchez in the stagnant flow of the game - the style that Arsenal will play against 75% of the EPL.
I agree that we didn't see the real Man City yesterday, but I have to say that we also didn't see the real Arsenal either. I believe both Mr Bollox and yourself have underestimated them this season. They will definitely challenge for the EPL title this year, and will make a big splash in European as well.
I agree that we didn't see the real Man City yesterday, but I have to say that we also didn't see the real Arsenal either. I believe both Mr Bollox and yourself have underestimated them this season. They will definitely challenge for the EPL title this year, and will make a big splash in European as well.
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