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Author: [Soccer] Topic: EPL & NFL Season 2012-2013
arkadymo send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 8/13/2012 10:36:12 PM

Been a while since I've posted on here but I've been doing a lot of prepping for the upcoming seasons so I plan on posting all of my plays in this thread - just wanted to get it started.  Hope all is well with the regulars.  I will be posting my EPL previews throughout the week leading up to this weekend. 

On a side note, great to see City get a trophy already

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#2
Posted: 8/13/2012 10:47:42 PM
yeh i'm dusting off the cobwebs as well ark, looking forward to the new season, good to see u back m8
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#3
Posted: 8/14/2012 3:54:44 AM
Looking forward to your posts man!
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#4
Posted: 8/14/2012 9:06:32 AM
GOOD TO SEE YA BOTH BACK!!
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#5
Posted: 8/14/2012 9:28:20 AM
some more covers soccer legends are back arky and bollox
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#6
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:10:01 AM

Title Contenders: Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal

CL Contenders: Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle, Liverpool, Everton

Middle of the Pack: Fulham, Sunderland, Swansea, Norwich, QPR, Stoke

Relegation Battle: Wigan, Southampton, Reading, West Ham, Aston Villa, West Brom

Just a brief overview of how I foresee this season playing out. Currently working on a more in depth write up for the top of the table...

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#7
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:21:31 AM

Relegation Battle:

  • Wigan: Bottom feeders the past two seasons that are only back because of their late season heroics.  I'm not sure you can count on that every season.
  • Southhampton: They scored a lot of goals in the Championship and I'm curious to see if they can repeat against better competition.  If not, they could go down.
  • Reading: They relied on defense and clean sheets last season, how will that work against the top teams of the EPL?
  • West Ham: They struggled to get promotion but they do have some EPL experience on the squad.  That may need to help to offset their lack of punch.
  • Aston Villa: They were bad last season. New manager needs to make an impact because a repeat and they may go down.
  • West Brom: I'd like to think they'll be safe but you never know. An injury here or there and this squad is not that impressive.
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#8
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:25:13 AM

Middle of the Pack:

  • Fulham: Lost a few key goal scoreres and will rely even more on Dempsey this year. That's scary to me, an injury or drop in form and they could struggle.
  • Sunderland: I see this team struggling to score this season. Losing Bendtner and who will net for them?
  • Swansea: The impact of the new manager is key here. If he can keep a lot of last year's success in the squad they will be fine. If not, the team could be near the bottom.
  • Norwich: They had a strong season last year and I expect a lot of the same. I just fear them struggling to churn out the same type of results as last season
  • Stoke: They were the luckiest team of last year. I don't expect that to continue so I foresee a drop in the table this time around - just not all the way to the bottom.
  • QPR: Spending should keep them competitive this year. But, if their discipline record does not improve then this team is hopeless. Way too many Red Cards lost them points last season.
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#9
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:30:19 AM

CL Contenders:

  • Chelsea: They won the CL and FA Cup by playing anti-football. You can't win a title like that, unfortunately. They will compete against the big names and struggle when they play the bottom of the table. They are still my pick to finish fourth.
  • Tottenham: They started the season off great last season, but they need to keep Modric to repeat. I'm curious as to what AVB has in store for them, but they will battle for CL again, only to finish fifth.
  • Newcastle: The surprise team of last season should put in a similar performance. They really didn't lose anything key in their lineup so I don't see why they won't finish in the top six, unless they can't handle the European responsibilities.
  • Liverpool: Give the new manager a full season at the helm before they competee for a CL spot. There is a pretty clear divide between sixth and these last two teams, but they are better than the rest. Liverpool will be much better next season.
  • Everton: What a tough team to read. They finish strong every year then stumble out of the gates, so I can't see anything else happening again this year. If, for once, they could get a strong start, they would compete for a CL spot.
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#10
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:35:16 AM

Title Contenders

  • Manchester United: Championships are not won against your contenders, they are won against the entire league. Last season, United had the best record against the bottom 14 teams in the league.  Unless City are able to recreate their 8-2-0 record against the top 6 then Fergie should be able to coach this team to another title in my prediction. Last season was great for them, they got youngsters some much needed experience while some veterans finished off their careers. I see them just edging out City this year.
  • Manchester City: They didn't improve their defense at all in the off season. We all saw how bad of a team they were when Kompany was hurt and Yaya was in the African Cup. Another injury like that and they won't even compete. However, they are the most talented team in the league right now so that will keep them in the running. I just foresee a greater focus on Europe this year while the holding Champions falter to second place in the league.
  • Arsenal: If I had the balls I'd take a shot on them to win the league but its too much of a longshot. One RVP injury and this team will falter. But, if he stays healthy again they will be in the hunt. If it weren't for their terrible, and I mean TERRIBLE, start last season, they would've been within shouting range of the Manchester teams. Regardless, they were a clear cut third place team. I expect no less this season.
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#11
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:06:14 PM
WOW!...thanks for posting this info!!!
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#12
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:27:09 PM
  arky, good stuff.  GL this season 
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#13
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:33:26 PM
Of course, just before I can get my United +250 to win the title bet in, they sign RvP.  That line is plummeting (already +210) while the City line isn't buding.  If City gets over +150 I'll have to think about backing them.  RvP will be a great addition for United, don't get me wrong, but striker was not where they needed help.  If anything, they need help on their backline or middle of midfield.  They have plenty of attacking wingers / strikers right now in my opinion.  We shall see.
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#14
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:05:01 PM

Officially not going to back anyone right now to win the league.  I touched on it above but the line movement from the RvP transfer does not suit the lines that I wanted so I'm going to stay away.  I am in the process of getting my weekend bets in - will post and write them up when they are all in.

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#15
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:41:01 PM

West Brom v Liverpool Under 2 and 2.5 +101 (0.995% to win 1.005%)

  • This is just one of those games that I don't foresee very many scoring opportunities. Two new coaches here, will they be able to implement their plans this soon? I'm not sure. I look for Liverpool to attempt to domiante possession but to lack the fluidity the Rodgers wants, making the game choppy and boring. West Brom will sit back and keep this game low scoring. 0-1 FT.

Arsenal -1 and -1.5 -105 v Sunderland (1.025% to win 0.975%)

  • A huge gap in class here but we are getting a reasonable price. The Gunners are playing a system and regardless of who their striker is, they will produce goals. Sunderland will put in a good shift for O'Neill but I think the class will get the best of them here. I'm willing to lay more than one goal because of the potency of Arsenal's attackers. 3-0 FT.

Fulham v Norwich City +0.5 +112 (0.943% to win 1.057%)

  • Norwich were one of the better away teams last year, especially against the non-elite teams. I am scared to back Fulham right now without seeing them play; their reliance on Dempsey last year could be trouble. Much more comfortable backing a Norwich team that knows how to grind out a result, especially on the road. It may not be pretty. 1-1 FT.

QPR v Swansea City +0.5 -117 (1.078% to win 0.922%)

  • Another line I don't really understand. QPR have bought well, but I'm not sure they're reading to be near even money against a Swansea team that, despite having a new coach, is returning their core. I'm interested to see how their new manager does, but I'm not sure it will have an affect this early in the season. 0-0 FT.

Reading +141 v Stoke City (0.830% to win 1.170%)

  • It's no secret Stoke City are horrendous on the road, so I feel square in fading them here. But, a newly relegated squad that was very strong at home last season seems to be a perfect storm. I like the price and although I think it'll be lower scoring, I hope to see a home win here; they've spent well in the off season. 2-0 FT.

West Ham v Aston Villa pk and +0.5 -102 (1.010% to win 0.990%)

  • Against the bottom 14 (13 not including themselves) teams last season, Aston Villa only lost once on the road. Now, some of that is because of the boring style they played, which should be gone this upcoming season. Regardless, I think West Ham are too short as home favorites to not fade them. FT 1-1.

Newcastle v Tottenham Over 2.5 -106 (1.029% to win 0.971%)

  • Both of these teams were good for overs last season and with a fairly average price I can't pass it up (two matches last season saw 9 goals between them). I see an open game here with the stars creating plenty of scoring opportunitites.
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#16
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:42:33 PM

All plays will be anywhere from 1-5% of my bankroll at risk. As you can see, going small at the beginning of the season is important as a lot of question marks are still to be answered. Will be back later when I get my Sunday & Monday plays in.  Good luck this season everyone.

 

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#17
Posted: 8/16/2012 3:34:24 PM

I've had my NFL futures in for a bit now, so I figured I'd post them now while I have free time rather than wait for the season to get closer. I will not do a write-up for any of these plays right now, maybe I will later. Any specific questions feel free to get a dialogue going...

Arizona Cardinals under 7 wins -150 (4.800% to win 3.200%)

New York Giants under 9 wins -110 (3.144% to win 2.856%)

Oakland Raiders over 7 wins -120 (2.182% to win 1.818%)

Oakland Raiders to win AFC West +560 (0.322% to win 1.678%)

Tennesse Titans under 7 wins +115 (1.860% to win 2.140%)

Houston Texans to win AFC South -450 (3.274% to win 0.726%)

Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC North +135 (0.852% to win 1.148%)

Buffalo Bills over 8 wins -110 (1.048% to win 0.952%)

St Louis Rams over 6 wins -120 (1.090% to win 0.910%)

St Louis Rams to win NFC West +1000 (0.182% to win 1.818%)

Dallas Cowboys to win NFC East +270 (0.540% to win 1.460%)

Atlanta Falcons over 9 wins -125 (1.110% to win 0.890%)

Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South +130 (0.870% to win 1.130%)

Minnesota Vikings over 6 wins -105 (2.05% to win 1.95%)

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#18
Posted: 8/16/2012 9:25:51 PM
ark, if i'm not mistaken, i think i saw reading even to relegate.  i don't see them scoring much and i'm not sure how well the defense holds up in the epl.

i was also looking at southampton not to relegate but i think it's too expensive.

as for nfl, i posted some thoughts in the penalty box which is where i'll normally post, but as to your picks,

i really think arizona is going to be horrible.  the Ol is old and bad.  the qb situation is a mess.  they really don't have any strengths and a bad, old OL and a weak Qb is no way to start the season.  i also think that division will be better this season and also like your st louis over bet.  i don't bet nfl futures but AZ under and Stl over are two of my favorites. 

i like houston to go to the super bowl so i obviously agree with you there. 

i really like what buffalo has on their DL and OL and those two strengths should be enough to carry them to a winning season.  i wouldn't be surprised if they win that division.  they have some good skill position players as well. 

i think detroit and dallas struggle this season.  both have serious OL issues and detroit might be worse on defense this year if that's possible. 

i can't get a read on oakland.  i don't feel good about predicting anything in that division although i do like denver.  not just for the obvious reason, but i think their system, their good pass cacthing RB and their defense is much better suited for what they have now as opposed to what they did last season.

once thing that worries me about atlanta is their turnover margin the last two seasons.  i'm not going to repeat it here but i have a post in the PB about turnover margin and how i think it will effect certain teams this season. 

good luck, i'll check in and hopefully we can get a dialogue going. 


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#19
Posted: 8/16/2012 9:35:00 PM
you may have seen this
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#20
Posted: 8/16/2012 9:41:21 PM

Club, good to see you buddy. A lot of good points in your post, I'll respond to a few -- thanks for the input.

The newly promoted teams are always favored to be relegated so Reading being at even money is not surprising. The problem is that there are really no clear cut teams for relegation so I would have a tough time betting on any of those short 'favs'.  If I had to bet in that market, I'd bet on the best priced promotion to stay up and one of the longer shot underperformers to go down (i.e. Stoke, Aston Villa, West Brom, Sunderland). Also, remember that often times newly promoted teams outperform in the first half of the season before the grind starts to take hold and they freefall down the stretch (i.e. Blackpool).

Arizona has a tough schedule for how bad they are, hence why I pounded their under despite their cake of a division. St. Louis was ravaged by injuries last year so I love their over -- easy schedule too. San Fran will regress this year so I saw a ton of value for STL to steal the division, I realize its a longshot.

I'm not in love with Houston this year (lost a few key guys on defense) but I'm not big on Tennesse which really leaves no one to compete in the division.

Buffalo started off very strong last season before getting hit with the injury bug. I realize they're in a semi-tough division but I thnk they're betting than the Jets so 9 wins isn't too far fetched.

Disagree on Dallas. To me, there are three teams that can win the East and I will take the best price. Could they choke and go 8-8 again? Sure. But to me, that's no less likely than Vick getting injured or the Giants not showing up (like they did half the season last year).

I love Oakland but just couldn't pound them too hard, I dunno why. Give Carson Palmer an offseason and all of his weapons and that offense will be potent. Mix in an easy schedule and a subpar division.

Not huge on the Atlanta bet but I think its the right side. They have a much easier schedule than New Orleans (not big on Carolina this year) and have relatively similar talent levels all around. Pretty good price.

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#21
Posted: 8/16/2012 10:06:00 PM
i doubt i'll bet any epl futures.  as for reading, i just don't see much scoring so i think it will be hard for them to stay up but there just isn't much value in +100.

as for the NFC west, i said in another thread that i think they have a good chance at two playoff teams.  san francisco should regress.  i have to check my thread bt i think they were +28 in TO margin last season.  that's off the charts.  they did have a great defense and will again but that number should revert back some.  plus, they were very fortunate in the injury department.  that tends to even out over the seasons as well.  despite being at the top of the league in those two categories (that are largely due to luck), they were only 8-7 ats last season. 

i also like Stl for that reason.  i recall their first game when jackson broke one for a TD and they were playing with a lot of energy against phiully and then he went down and it completely deflated that team.  and then they just had injury after injury.  but there's talent on that team and i like fisher a lot.  i don't think people understand the rams. 

i like seattle too but i'm concerned with any team that picks up braylon and TO.  it's just a bad sign for a few reasons.

i think houston will be fine with their losses on defense.  williams has been injured a lot and the houston defense hasn't seemed to drop off much.aht team is solid from top to bottom.  and the various writers seem to think that williams will be much more effective in buffalo's system as opposed to houston's. so hopefully what isn't a big loss for houston will be a big gain for buffalo.  but i wouldn't make any long term bets on houston to win anythijng because as much as i like shaub, he's injury prone. 

the nfc east is tough to call.  for some reason, theykeep putting up big win totals for philly.  how is that team and less of a mess this seson than they've been in the past.  and how is the defense improved enough to win that division.  i think anything is possible in that division but i'm not going to try and predict it.  i do think dallas will have some OL problems this season.

i'd take carolina under if i was making those bets.  shitty defense and teams have had a full offseason to look at film on newton.  he has a lot of talent, but he needs to make better decisions and there is too much pressure on him if the defense keeps giving up points.  that division should be a two team race.    at the end of last season, i had new orleans as the best team in the nfl. but maybe with their issues atlanta can overtake them.  tampa isn't winning anything and i'd be surprised if carolina has more than 7 wins.  
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#22
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:15:53 AM
Thanks for your insight. It's especially helpful for those of us new to betting the EPL. I was hoping your could clear up some confusion for me. The listing below is from bookmaker. What's the difference from the first set of team odds and second?

7:00 AM [25021] ASTON VILLA @ [25022] WEST HAM UTD[25023] Draw
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#23
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:19:40 AM
hey reason,  the lines that have "PK" next to them mean that if the game ends in a DRAW, your bet is a push and refunded to you.

The +195 and +125 for AV & WH are a 3 way line, where if the game ends in a DRAW, you LOSE your bet 

hope that helps!
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#24
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:53:12 AM
Thanks Colts. That was what I figured, but wanted to make sure. Good luck. 
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#25
Posted: 8/18/2012 3:00:04 AM
Good to see you back at it, Arky

Thanks for the read and good luck this season 

As for the games I'm gonna be watching only for the first couple of weeks I recon, checking out teams and spotting players and getting in "on the to score a goal" market


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