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Author: [Soccer] Topic: AT Euro 2012 Pix
Snakeyez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/18/2012 2:14:57 PM
QUOTEThis is NOT a topic for glory-hunting, touting, or an invitation for trolling haters (thats a shout out to you Greggy-Tunez).  

A forum a few of us were using crapped out on us for good yesterday so I'll be posting the rest of my pix here for the remainder of the Euros for a bit of fun.

All odds from 5D, but I use square books like Bodog or Intertops for unique props.

Current Euros Record: 39-40-4 [+23.12 units:

(excluding futures)

Futures
Originally Posted by Snakeyez]
Streaker in final YES 1.85
U76.5 goals 1.83

Group A
Top Goalscorer Lewandowski 21/1 (1 unit)
CZE win group 5.35
Lowest scoring group 2.85
Ninis top GRE scorer 26/1 (.5 unit)
FetFatzidis top GRE scorer 15/1 (.5 unit)

Group B
Highest scoring group 2.8
Top Goalscorer Ozil 63.5 (.5 unit)
POR win outright 22/1
POR win group 5.00
POR qualify   2.43
Top Goalscorer Ronaldo 16/1 (1 unit)

Group C
ITA win group 4.7
ITA win outright 18.3
Jelavic top CRO scorer 6/1 (.5 unit)
IRE finish last 1.88

Group D
SWE win outright 68.5 (1 unit)
SWE win group 7.00
SWE qualify 2.75
Ibrahimovic top SWE scorer 3.25 (1 unit)
Top Goalscorer Ibrahimovic 48.5 (.5 unit)
UKR finish last 3.25
Konoplyanka top UKR scorer 12/1 (.5 unit)
FRA win group 2.5 (hedge for SWE)
ENG not qualify 2.6
Young top ENG scorer 7.5 (1 unit)
Straight forecast 1 ENG 2 FRA 3.1  (1 unit)

quote
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Posted: 6/18/2012 2:15:34 PM
Pending pix....

POR/HOL O2.5/SPA ML/ENG PK parlay  5.00

SPA ML 1.86 (3 units)
SPA PK,-.5  1stH 1.78
Torres scores 2.4 (1 unit)
O10.5 corners 1.8
Goal in 1st 27 min 1.95 (1 unit)

Di Natale score 1st 5/1 (.5 unit)
Goal in 1st 27 min 2.00 (1 unit)

ENG PK,-.5 1.85
Potato-head score 1st  6/1 (.5 unit)
Potato-head score   2.4 (.5 unit)

Ibrahimovic score 1st 9/1 (.5 unit)

quote
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Posted: 6/18/2012 4:47:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:

Pending pix....

POR/HOL O2.5/SPA ML/ENG PK parlay  5.00 

SPA ML 1.86 (3 units) 
SPA PK,-.5  1stH 1.78
Torres scores 2.4 (1 unit)
O10.5 corners 1.8
Goal in 1st 27 min 1.95 (1 unit)

Di Natale score 1st 5/1 (.5 unit)
Goal in 1st 27 min 2.00 (1 unit)



SPA comes through in the end thank fck! That was very close to being a bad day...SPA came so close to going home too....wow. 

Euros Record 41-44.5-4 [+22.94 units] (excluding futures)

Pending....

POR/HOL O2.5/SPA ML/ENG PK parlay  5.00

ENG PK,-.5 1.85
Potato-head score 1st  6/1 (.5 unit)
Potato-head score   2.4 (.5 unit)

Ibrahimovic score 1st 9/1 (.5 unit)


quote
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Posted: 6/18/2012 5:15:07 PM
Adding...

POR ML 1.74 (4 units)

CZE have done well vs average opponents, but they are gna have a hard time controlling the midfield and slowing down Ronaldo/Nani in this match...Rosicky has gone home for "treatment", but I don't expect him to be 100%.   Kinda surprised at the value on this line..

GER -1, -1.5  1.83  

GRE has been horrible in 1st halves until the RUS game and even then they were lucky that RUS had absolutely no touch or finish in the final third.  GER is gna dominate the midfield and I'd be very surprised if they don't pull out at least a 2 goal win.  2004 Greece this is not.  GRE don't have the firepower to exploit the left back side either..

Books are getting killed on a lot of favorites, but they've finally adjusted the totals.  Prolly won't be touching those...but defo be adding some props in next couple days.. 
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Posted: 6/18/2012 6:00:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:



Pending....

POR/HOL O2.5/SPA ML/ENG PK parlay  5.00

ENG PK,-.5 1.85
Potato-head score 1st  6/1 (.5 unit)
Potato-head score   2.4 (.5 unit)

Ibrahimovic score 1st 9/1 (.5 unit)


Adding

SWE +1 1.8 (1 unit)
SWE ML  6.82 (1 unit)
SWE PK, +.5 1stH 2.16 (1 unit)

ENG PK, -.5 1st H 2.05 (1 unit)

I think SWE have been a bit unlucky so far and FRA haven't been anything special.  UKR was a deflated team vs FRA after being on such a high from their win vs SWE.  Elmander and Elm are likely out, but Elmander has been crap so far anyways.  This is purely a value play since a draw wouldn't surprise me and they could even squeek out a win playing with nothing to lose.  Should be able to get even more value by waiting closer to kickoff.  There's already been a 10-20 cent move towards FRA since the line opened.   It would take a miracle for FRA not to qualify so they could cruise to a draw no problem.

Also love the ENG bet more with Shevchenko being doubtful.  He's arguably their best player and inspiration...which is a laugh in itself. 




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Posted: 6/18/2012 8:56:20 PM
Adding...

FRA -2 corners vs SWE 1.71 (1 unit)
UKR/ENG U10 corners 1.98  (1 unit)

SWE have a total of 6 corners the entire tourny. Their chances are going to come from set pieces or Ibrahimovic, while FRA have had over 5 corners each game.  Neither UKR or ENG have had over 5 corners in any game so far. 

CZE/POR O10.5 corners 1.8  (1 unit)
POR -2 corners vs CZE 1.7
POR O1.5 goals 1.95
POR PK, -.5 1st H  1.91 (1 unit)
Ronaldo score anytime 1.83  (1 unit)
Ronaldo score 1st 4.3  (.5 unit)

POR might get over 10 corners just by themselves.    Their advantage in midfield is just silly.  Even if CZE surprise with a goal POR have proved they don't panic.  Each game when they went down vs GER/HOL and let DEN come back in it, they responded by taking over the game.  If POR score 1st like expected CZE is going to get murdered on the counterattack.  CZE got dominated by POL to start last game and this is going to be an even bigger spectacle.  They are simply too young without any stars to hang in there for a full 90 min.  Also expect Ronaldo to bag at least 1 now that he's got the gorilla off his back.

GER -.5 1st H  1.82
Ozil score 1st  9/1 (.5 unit)

I see very little chance of GRE leading at half like they did vs RUS...and they only had 2 shots that half at that.  They prolly won't get many set piece chances.  Their only hope is on the counter, but GER's midfield will make them pay if they open up.  Losing Karagounis for this match is also bad news for GRE.  I expect this one to be over at halftime and it could get ugly in the 2nd H once GRE have to go for it. 




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Posted: 6/19/2012 1:37:35 PM
Very interesting reverse line movement on the FRA/SWE game....I guess I'm not the only one who saw the value there.    Since FRA can essentially qualify with a loss the only motivation they have is to avoid SPA next round.  Will be interesting to see what lineup FRA put out since they have 3 guys on yellow cards....
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Posted: 6/19/2012 3:51:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:



Pending....

Potato-head score 1st  6/1 (.5 unit)
Potato-head score   2.4 (.5 unit)


Well done potato-head!!! chaaa ching
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Posted: 6/19/2012 3:59:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:



Pending....

Ibrahimovic score 1st 9/1 (.5 unit)



Ibrahimovicccccccccccccccccccc

Just behind-kickin this tourny
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#10
Posted: 6/19/2012 4:19:16 PM
Nice hits both to score 1st
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Posted: 6/19/2012 4:36:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:



POR/HOL O2.5/SPA ML/ENG PK parlay  5.00

ENG PK,-.5 1.85 
ENG PK, -.5 1st H 2.05 (1 unit) 
Potato-head score 1st  6/1 (.5 unit)
Potato-head score   2.4 (.5 unit) 
UKR/ENG U10 corners 1.98  (1 unit)

SWE +1 1.8 (1 unit)
SWE ML  6.82 (1 unit)
SWE PK, +.5 1stH 2.16 (1 unit)
Ibrahimovic score 1st 9/1 (.5 unit)
FRA -2 corners vs SWE 1.71 (1 unit)


Completely smashed the books. 
+23.3 units on the day

Clean behind sweep on the SWE/FRA game.   

The value on SWE was just insane...not sure wot ppl were trippin on thinking FRA was gna roll over them with no real motivation to win.  Sharp-behind play if I do say so myself.      Probably the 1st and last time I ever bet on ENG too...if UKR wasn't so poor in the final third that wouldn't have turned out so good.

Euros Record 49.5-46-4 [+46.24 units] (excluding futures)

Bring on the knockout stage...
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Posted: 6/19/2012 4:56:57 PM
QUOTEPending....

Originally Posted by Snakeyez:



POR ML 1.74 (4 units)
CZE/POR O10.5 corners 1.8  (1 unit)
POR -2 corners vs CZE 1.7
POR O1.5 goals 1.95
POR PK, -.5 1st H  1.91 (1 unit)
Ronaldo score anytime 1.83  (1 unit)
Ronaldo score 1st 4.3  (.5 unit)

CZE have done well vs average opponents, but they are gna have a hard time controlling the midfield and slowing down Ronaldo/Nani in this match...Rosicky has gone home for "treatment", but I don't expect him to be 100%.   Kinda surprised at the value on this line..

POR might get over 10 corners just by themselves.    Their advantage in midfield is just silly.  Even if CZE surprise with a goal POR have proved they don't panic.  Each game when they went down vs GER/HOL and let DEN come back in it, they responded by taking over the game.  If POR score 1st like expected CZE is going to get murdered on the counterattack.  CZE got dominated by POL to start last game and this is going to be an even bigger spectacle.  They are simply too young without any stars to hang in there for a full 90 min.  Also expect Ronaldo to bag at least 1 now that he's got the gorilla off his back.

GER -1, -1.5  1.83  
GER -.5 1st H  1.82
Ozil score 1st  9/1 (.5 unit)

GRE has been horrible in 1st halves until the RUS game and even then they were lucky that RUS had absolutely no touch or finish in the final third.  GER is gna dominate the midfield and I'd be very surprised if they don't pull out at least a 2 goal win.  2004 Greece this is not.  GRE don't have the firepower to exploit the left back side either..

I see very little chance of GRE leading at half like they did vs RUS...and they only had 2 shots that half at that.  They prolly won't get many set piece chances.  Their only hope is on the counter, but GER's midfield will make them pay if they open up.  Losing Karagounis for this match is also bad news for GRE.  I expect this one to be over at halftime and it could get ugly in the 2nd H once GRE have to go for it. 


Let's keep it rollllin'.....makin this tourny my girl. 

PS > hope you caught this topic in time Kev ... if not you can blame Swanie
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Posted: 6/19/2012 5:43:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snakeyez:


Group A
Top Goalscorer Lewandowski 21/1 (1 unit)           
CZE win group 5.35                                            
Lowest scoring group 2.85                                 

Group B
Highest scoring group 2.8                           
POR win group 5.00                                 
POR qualify   2.43                                     

Group C
ITA win group 4.7                                       
Jelavic top CRO scorer 6/1 (.5 unit)               
IRE finish last 1.88                                     

Group D
SWE win outright 68.5 (1 unit)                       
SWE win group 7.00                                    
SWE qualify 2.75                                        
Ibrahimovic top SWE scorer 3.25 (1 unit)          
Top Goalscorer Ibrahimovic 48.5 (.5 unit)           
UKR finish last 3.25                                       
Konoplyanka top UKR scorer 12/1 (.5 unit)         
FRA win group 2.5                                           
Straight forecast 1 ENG 2 FRA 3.1  (1 unit)         


+11.47 units on the group stage futures...but coulda been so much better if SWE did a little better.   Big swing and a miss on them, but they made up for it today. 

Euros Record: 56.5-57-4 [+57.71 units]

Pending futures...

Streaker in final YES 1.85
U76.5 goals 1.83

Ninis top GRE scorer 26/1 (.5 unit)
FetFatzidis top GRE scorer 15/1 (.5 unit)

Top Goalscorer Ozil 63.5 (.5 unit)
POR win outright 22/1
Top Goalscorer Ronaldo 16/1 (1 unit)
ITA win outright 18.3
Young top ENG scorer 7.5 (1 unit)

Don't expect any of these to hit, but I got high hopes for POR + Ronaldo...and I will be taking them to knockout SPA if both meet in the semis...

Still a decent chance on ITA too....and a streaker in the final!   That would just be icing on the cake ....
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Posted: 6/19/2012 5:47:25 PM
oops fixed error...

Euros Record: 57.5-56-4 [+57.71 units]


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Posted: 6/19/2012 5:58:33 PM
Euros Record: 56.5-57-4 [+57.71 units]

ffs had it right the 1st time ... put the wrong icon for ITA prop
(relax Gweggy it's accurate now  )



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Posted: 6/19/2012 11:09:26 PM
Adding..

ITA PK 1.87 (4 units)
ITA ML 2.6 (1 unit)

This is just silly value...much like the POR line. 

ITA do have some issues.  They seem to be still figuring out what formation they want to go with.  In the 1st two they went with a 3-5-2 and held up quite well vs two quality teams and then switched to a 4-3-1-2 narrow diamond approach vs IRE and looked a bit confused and unsteady.   They also don't know which two strikers to go with since they got production from Di Natale, Cassano, and Balotelli.  I think they would be better off going back to the 3-5-2 because ENG could give them some problems if they stick with the narrow formation.  ENG's fullbacks would be able to get forward and stretch them out, but they just don't have the creativity to really give too much cause for concern.  They need more than Gerrard and Hart to expect a win vs ITA.

ITA don't have any glaring weaknesses and their midfield is much more attacking than previous versions.  They have great players, can defend, and score and Pirlo is the rock in midfield.

ENG have been pretty poor so far and should feel lucky to get the wins they got.  They lack focus, are poor away from the ball, and give the ball away much too easy.  Potato-head does give em a new dimension up front, but they are gna lose to ITA cuz of poor defense more than anything else.  They are nowhere near as good at the back as ppl expected coming into the tourny. 

I can't pass up the value on this game and I'll probably be adding some juicy props once they get put on the board.

I'm holding off on the SPA/FRA game until I see some better line options, but I'm definitely fading SPA in one way or another.  I think if FRA don't take them out then POR will. 




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Posted: 6/19/2012 11:13:48 PM
Adding...

POR ML/ITA PK parlay  3.31

POR should roll over CZE and ITA should be at least a half goal favorite.  This parlay is a no-brainer. 
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Posted: 6/20/2012 2:36:43 AM
Italy are a no brainer to beat England - lol 
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Posted: 6/20/2012 3:24:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Iainsc2:

Italy are a no brainer to beat England - lol 


The value is a no-brainer...not the outcome.  There's a difference.   No way these teams should be close to pick em...unless we are watching completely different games? 

Anything can happen in a one game knockout, but I would be shocked if ENG pulled this out.  I don't see a single advantage they have...and don't tell me Rooney is going to lead them to glory-land.

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Posted: 6/20/2012 5:37:38 PM
Adding...

ITA advance 1.94 (1 unit)

Probably the biggest factor when capping the ENG team is the extra day of rest they gained from winning the group, but they've still looked like a fatigued bunch which is likely half the reason for their lapses in focus. 

Benzema score 1st  9/1 (.5 unit)

I think if CRO had better finishers they coulda capitalized on their chances vs SPA.  Benzema is going to benefit from getting Cabaye back and they should be able to take advantage of SPA's width on the break.

Still waiting for more squares to load up on Spain so I can get better odds on FRA  
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Posted: 6/21/2012 1:19:54 PM
POR ML 1.74 (4 units)
POR -1  2.4 (1 unit)
POR PK, -.5 1st H  1.91 (1 unit)
POR O1.5 goals 1.95

Props
CZE/POR O10.5 corners 1.8  (1 unit)
POR -2 corners vs CZE 1.7
Ronaldo score anytime 1.83  (1 unit)
Ronaldo score 1st 4.3  (.5 unit)

Final card for today...added -1 for another unit.  Rosicky out for CZE is a blow for them, but given he left the country for treatment I'm not surprised.  Moutinho is going to be key today and Nani is due to bag one.

Going fairly big on this game. I bet POR to win the Euros and I haven't seen anything to change my mind.  If you don't have something on them this game then you just haven't been paying attention.  I expect the profit train to continue....


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Posted: 6/21/2012 2:17:31 PM
ENG/ITA O10 corners 1.99
ITA +1 corners     2.01 (1 unit)

No reason why ITA should be given an extra corner here.  I'll take that value everytime.  The only time ITA was outscored on corners was vs SPA who controlled the ball all game.  ENG are the complete opposite and give the ball away more than any other team.

FRA/SPA O11.5 corners 2.2 (1 unit)
SPA -2.5 corners  1.83  (1 unit)

SPA ball possession makes them a no-brainer to win the corner battle, but FRA have enough creativity and quality on the widths to push this over the total too. 


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Posted: 6/21/2012 2:32:03 PM
Nice was wondering where you got too, you had a sick day the other day unreal winning. I missed out big time and on top of that took a nasty hit on France, 1.80 suckered me right in.
Rolling with Portugal as well tonight hoping for a good result. Lets get some.
GL with your bets
Kev
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Posted: 6/21/2012 2:34:50 PM
There he is gl kev 
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Posted: 6/21/2012 2:37:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kmac1983:

Nice was wondering where you got too, you had a sick day the other day unreal winning. I missed out big time and on top of that took a nasty hit on France, 1.80 suckered me right in.
Rolling with Portugal as well tonight hoping for a good result. Lets get some.
GL with your bets
Kev


wooP
bout time you showed up   Caz started a new forum and made a sports section for us to post at but no thanks.

let's rolllllllllll 


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