What kind of bet is this?
Predetermined. Quite rare no?
Like wrestling and the storyline writers, you have to look into the psyche of the voters to see where they might stand when casting their ballot.
When voting, there are external forces and internal forces.
The internal - The internal force is the quality of the work. It's what you actually hear (or see).
The external - The external is what is going on outside the Grammys, particularly on a social level, that might influence a voter.
So we will examine these two forces and determine a winner in two categories, the two most important: Album of the year and record of the year.
What is the difference between the two?
Album of the year is awarded for the entire work on an album (i.e., every song).
Record of the year is awarded for a single song on an album.
To remove any further confusion, song of the year differs from the aforementioned two because you are awarding the songwriter for a song. The 'record' is a single song but may have not been written by the songwriter. The song of the year was written by him/her (and in the overwhelming majority of all cases, sung by them as well).
When you look at predetermined outcomes, you want to look to favorites. Why? Cash flows build on cash flows. Initial cash flows that come in on favorites, it is theorized, could be privy to inside information (i.e., the voter's intent or writer's script). The cash flows that come after that lean on what the initial cash flows were. Hence the -ML's build on each others.
So we will look to the favorites here.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR:
Beyoncé -160
This is a good price.
Why?
The internal -
The Grammy's are awarded for the music. But Beyoncé's album is one exception. She released the album with a video for every song. This was unprecedented.
So for the first time in Grammy history, the video is essentially tied in with the song. That has a powerful impact on a voter because the vote doesn't just require the ear, but the far more impactful eye. That's a huge bonus you are getting for your money right there. And Beyoncé is pretty good eye candy both in looks and dancing talent when voting for her. Big bonus there.
The external -
This is a realist approach. The Oscars were excoriated by the national media for nominating a field that was 'too white' (and to add to this, too male in part). This did not go unseen by the Grammy voters.
What more progressive-minded vote would be better than to vote for Beyoncé, both non-white and female for the biggest award of the night?
That is a powerful external force.
Having said all this. This is NOT my favorite bet.
My favorite bet and the one I recommend over album of the year is record of the year.
RECORD OF THE YEAR-
Sam Smith: Stay with me -200
The internal - Who has not heard this song? Who has not, in private or public, sung along with it? This song has the 'it' factor that the voters will be more than happy to award. On top of that, this guy has one hell of a voice box, like him or not.
The external - Sam Smith just confirmed his sexual orientation as g ay this year.
What has dominated our court system? What legal battles are fought monthly for the right to marry and the government benefits that come with it?
G ay marriage.
Not only can Sam Smith sing, not only do I think this song can stand alone against this field in its own right, not only do I think the Academy wants to recognize this up and coming artist beyond the best new artist award (which he will win), but they will be endorsing a lifestyle that is gaining mainstream acceptance every day.
The internal and external forces are quite powerful here for this folks.
Yes, these are the favorites. Yes these are -ML's and the payout isn't too hefty.
But these are predetermined outcomes and you look to the favorites in these cases.
It's far easier to bet a -200 favorite in the Grammy field than on an NBA court.
So I endorse Sam Smith for Record of the Year at -200, and say that throwing your hat in the ring for Beyoncé for Album of the Year is not a bad bet.