Deshaun Watson total Heisman points +699.5 vs. Lamar Jackson total Heisman points. $ limits are pretty low
Typical engineer, made a spreadsheet. .... Of course the line went from -120 to -145 in that amount of time.
Assumptions:
LJ and DW get 100% of 1st place votes combined.
LJ gets all 1st or 2nd place votes. No 3rd place or lower votes. this is meant to be a worst case for the DW play review.
DW gets 3% 3rd place votes.
Goal: Figure out approximately what % of 1st place votes (and 2nd place for that matter) would need to go to LJ to win by the 699.5 margin.
Inputs: 929 total voters. 1st place vote = 3 pts, 2nd place vote = 2 pts, 3rd place votes =1 point.
Answer: LJ will need a whopping 86% of 1st place votes (14% 2nd place) to DW 14% 1st place votes (83% 2nd place & 3% 3rd) to win by ..... 697.
Yes, if somebody else gets some 1st place votes (or more than 3% of 2nd place votes), etc., etc. -- there are a lot of scenarios. Who is hurt worse? I've assumed DW is hurt worse (LJ 100% of 1st and 2nd place votes). ..... The main goal was to check if the percentages were 75%/25% or 85%/15% or whatever they came out to and then ask yourself, is that percentage breakdown realistically what the voters will really do?
I say no. That's a darn high % for LJ that did not finish strong. DW had an extra game to impress voters vs. Va. Tech. Played pretty well, certainly didn't hurt his chances. And don't think this doesn't cross the mind of some voters that saw LJ's weak finish; LJ is a true Soph and cannot declare for the NFL, back for NCAA ball in 2017. Watson is gone after this year. May get the "Lifetime Achievement Award" votes from some.
Also riding a 0.36u wager to win just over 5 units on Watson to win the Heisman. Even if he's 2nd, this play should cover that 'lottery ticket'
Deshaun Watson total Heisman points +699.5 vs. Lamar Jackson total Heisman points. $ limits are pretty low
Typical engineer, made a spreadsheet. .... Of course the line went from -120 to -145 in that amount of time.
Assumptions:
LJ and DW get 100% of 1st place votes combined.
LJ gets all 1st or 2nd place votes. No 3rd place or lower votes. this is meant to be a worst case for the DW play review.
DW gets 3% 3rd place votes.
Goal: Figure out approximately what % of 1st place votes (and 2nd place for that matter) would need to go to LJ to win by the 699.5 margin.
Inputs: 929 total voters. 1st place vote = 3 pts, 2nd place vote = 2 pts, 3rd place votes =1 point.
Answer: LJ will need a whopping 86% of 1st place votes (14% 2nd place) to DW 14% 1st place votes (83% 2nd place & 3% 3rd) to win by ..... 697.
Yes, if somebody else gets some 1st place votes (or more than 3% of 2nd place votes), etc., etc. -- there are a lot of scenarios. Who is hurt worse? I've assumed DW is hurt worse (LJ 100% of 1st and 2nd place votes). ..... The main goal was to check if the percentages were 75%/25% or 85%/15% or whatever they came out to and then ask yourself, is that percentage breakdown realistically what the voters will really do?
I say no. That's a darn high % for LJ that did not finish strong. DW had an extra game to impress voters vs. Va. Tech. Played pretty well, certainly didn't hurt his chances. And don't think this doesn't cross the mind of some voters that saw LJ's weak finish; LJ is a true Soph and cannot declare for the NFL, back for NCAA ball in 2017. Watson is gone after this year. May get the "Lifetime Achievement Award" votes from some.
Also riding a 0.36u wager to win just over 5 units on Watson to win the Heisman. Even if he's 2nd, this play should cover that 'lottery ticket'
Added some FCS playoff wagers tonight after work.... just had a chance to check again and the line & total on the EWU game moved a bit for the better, so took a few plays again there.
YSU -5.5 (0.5u) & -6.5 (0.5u)
EWU -7 (0.5u) & -6.5 (0.5u)
Richmond / EWU Under 64.5 (0.5u) & Under 66.5 (0.5u)
SDSU / NDSU Under 51.5 (0.5u)
JMU -2.5 (0.25u)
and I couldn't help myself.... JMU/SHSU total up from 84 to 92.5.... took Under 92.5.... crazy that 49-42 wins. (0.25u) ... if I start to second guess this one, can always take Over 80 something when Vegas comes out Saturday morning and these lines adjust. Probably won't.... It's going to be cold and I giving JMU the benefit of the doubt that they've learned how to play with a lead and lean on that solid running game.
Added some FCS playoff wagers tonight after work.... just had a chance to check again and the line & total on the EWU game moved a bit for the better, so took a few plays again there.
YSU -5.5 (0.5u) & -6.5 (0.5u)
EWU -7 (0.5u) & -6.5 (0.5u)
Richmond / EWU Under 64.5 (0.5u) & Under 66.5 (0.5u)
SDSU / NDSU Under 51.5 (0.5u)
JMU -2.5 (0.25u)
and I couldn't help myself.... JMU/SHSU total up from 84 to 92.5.... took Under 92.5.... crazy that 49-42 wins. (0.25u) ... if I start to second guess this one, can always take Over 80 something when Vegas comes out Saturday morning and these lines adjust. Probably won't.... It's going to be cold and I giving JMU the benefit of the doubt that they've learned how to play with a lead and lean on that solid running game.
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